Four witches' day, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell more than 1% and have been declining for two consecutive weeks. Chip stocks plummeted, and offshore renminbi briefly rose by 300 points.

US inflation data is mixed. In August, import prices rose 0.5% MoM, higher than expected, driven by increased energy costs. Export prices also increased by 1.3%, reaching the highest level in over a year. However, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September came in lower than expected at 67.7, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to 3.1%, the lowest since January 2021, and five-year inflation expectations falling to 2.7%, the lowest since the end of 2020.

Combined with the CPI and PPI data for August released earlier this week, which showed a slowdown in core inflation, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates next week. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in November has dropped from about 44% a week ago to less than 33%.

Meanwhile, the New York State Manufacturing Index unexpectedly expanded in September, rising sharply from -19 to 1.9, with a significant rebound in the new orders index. However, the prices paid and received indexes also rebounded, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. Industrial production in the US increased by 0.4% MoM in August, weaker than the previous reading of 1% but higher than the expected 0.1%. The capacity utilization rate, which measures potential output, also rebounded slightly higher than expected to 79.7%.

After the tenth consecutive interest rate hike yesterday, European Central Bank President Lagarde reiterated that the ECB has not discussed cutting interest rates. However, there are clear differences within the ECB's governing council on whether to continue raising interest rates before the end of the year. Eurogroup President Donohoe warned that the eurozone economy has clearly lost some momentum. Traders are betting that the ECB will cut interest rates by around 75 basis points starting in June next year.

However, traders have slightly increased the possibility of an ECB rate hike in December from 20% the previous day to 30%. The Governor of the Latvian Central Bank stated that if inflation does not decline as expected, there is still a possibility of another rate hike. Another committee member also stated that the December meeting is crucial. However, French Finance Minister Le Maire urged the ECB not to continue raising interest rates. Deutsche Bank does not rule out the possibility of upward pressure on interest rates in the next year.

S&P, Nasdaq, and Small-Cap Stocks All Fall Over 1%, Dow Rises for the Week, S&P and Nasdaq Fall for Two Consecutive Weeks, Chip Stocks Plunge on Friday

On Friday, September 15th, US stocks opened lower and continued to decline, reaching the daily low during the midday session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1% within the first half-hour of trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped over 100 points within the first hour, and the chip index fell 1.7%. Both the S&P Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors fell over 1%.

The Dow Jones fell the deepest, dropping over 330 points or about 1%. During the midday session, all 11 sectors of the S&P were down, with the technology sector leading the decline, falling nearly 2%. Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Telecommunications all fell over 1%. The chip index experienced the steepest decline of 3.4%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 300 points or 1.9%.

In the end, US stocks closed near the daily lows, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all falling over 1%, and the Dow Jones falling nearly 290 points:

The Dow Jones almost wiped out its gains since Wednesday, moving away from the one-month high set yesterday. The S&P and Nasdaq both hit their lowest levels since August 28th, nearly three weeks ago, and the Russell 2000 pressured the two-and-a-half-month low set on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average barely rose by 0.12% for the week, marking its second consecutive weekly gain. However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell by 0.16% and 0.39% respectively, marking their second consecutive weekly decline. Nevertheless, the non-essential consumer goods sector led the gains during the week, thanks to the outstanding performance of Tesla and Amazon.

The S&P 500 Index closed down 54.78 points, a decrease of 1.22%, at 4,450.32 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 288.87 points, a decrease of 0.83%, to 34,618.24 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 217.72 points, a decrease of 1.56%, to 13,708.33 points. The Nasdaq 100 fell by 1.8%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap stocks declined by 1.1%. The "fear index" VIX rose 10% during the session and surpassed 14, moving away from its three-and-a-half-year low.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell small-cap stocks all fell by more than 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 290 points.

Friday also coincided with Quadruple Witching Day, which is the third Friday of March, June, September, and December when derivative financial products expire and settle. During this period, market prices tend to fluctuate significantly.

The technology sector performed the worst this week, while defensive utilities led the way, and energy remained relatively stable.

Tech giants experienced a collective decline. Meta, the "metaverse" company, fell by 3.7% to a new weekly low, moving away from its five-week high. Apple, which officially started pre-orders for the iPhone 15 series, narrowed its decline to 0.4%, approaching a four-week low. Amazon fell by 3% to its lowest level in a week, after reaching its highest point since April last year on Wednesday. Microsoft also fell by 2.5% to a new weekly low, moving away from its highest level in a month and a half. Netflix fell by nearly 1% to its lowest level in three and a half months. Google Class A shares declined by 0.5%, moving away from its highest level in 17 months. Tesla fell by 0.6%, moving away from its two-month high, but still accumulated a gain of over 10% for the week.

Chip stocks experienced deeper declines. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 3%, breaking below 3,500 points to a four-week low. Intel fell by 2% to its lowest level in a week and a half, after reaching its highest level since July last year on Tuesday. AMD fell by nearly 5% to a four-month low, while Nvidia fell by 3.7% to a four-week low.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 3%, breaking below 3,500 points to a four-week low. Taiwan Semiconductor's US stocks fell 2.4% to a four-month low. There are reports that Taiwan Semiconductor has requested suppliers to delay the delivery of high-end chip manufacturing equipment, citing weak economic conditions and soft demand in the end market. Chip equipment stocks ASML and Applied Materials fell 4%, while KLA and Lam Research fell 5%.

Arm, the largest IPO in the US this year and a newly listed British chip design company, opened 8.5% higher in early trading to a record high of $69, with a market value exceeding $72 billion at one point. It had risen more than 24% the previous day. The stock's trading was quite volatile, rising more than 10% before turning down nearly 1% in pre-market trading, and ultimately closing down 4.5% to a daily low of $60.75, with a market value stabilizing above $62 billion, up 19% since its listing.

Some analysts believe that Arm's valuation is too high, with a price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 170 times over the past 12 months, even surpassing industry giant Nvidia, which has a valuation of 109 times earnings. Brokerage firm Needham rates Arm as "hold," believing that its valuation seemed to have been fully reflected at the time of the IPO and is not enough to support further gains in the post-smartphone era.

AI concept stocks fell across the board. C3.ai fell 3% to a nearly four-month low, Palantir Technologies fell over 3% to a one-week low, SoundHound.ai fell 1% to a five-week low, but BigBear.ai rose more than 2% to move away from its monthly low. There are reports that due to the uncertain monetization prospects of AI applications, Adobe, Salesforce, and Zoom are all "cautious" and dare not follow Microsoft's "sharp price increase."

Popular Chinese concept stocks followed the decline of the US stock market:

ETF KWEB fell 0.7%, CQQQ fell about 1%, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell 0.7%, still above 6,800 points, further moving away from the two-week low set last Friday.

Among the Nasdaq 100 constituents, JD.com fell 0.5%, Baidu fell 1%, and Pinduoduo rose 0.4%. Among other individual stocks, Alibaba and Bilibili both fell 1%, Tencent ADR fell 1.6%, NIO rose 0.5%, Ideal Auto rose nearly 2% before a slight decline, and XPeng rose 0.2%.

Tencent's mixed reality model has passed the initial filing and will gradually open to the public. NIO's new version of the smart electric coupe SUV EC6 is listed with a starting price of 358,000 yuan, lower than last year's EC6. Miniso's revenue exceeded 11.4 billion yuan last year and plans to repurchase up to $200 million.

Banking stocks fell 0.6%. The industry benchmark KBW Bank Index (BKX) of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, which rose 1.7% yesterday, moved away from a one-month high and reached its lowest level since October 2020 on May 4. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) moved away from a one-week high and reached its lowest level since November 2020 on May 11. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) also hit a new low since October 2020, departing from the previous week's high on May 4th. Keycorp, a regional bank, rose against the market by 0.6%, and Piper Sandler upgraded its rating to "hold".

Other stocks with significant changes include:

Multimedia software developer Adobe fell more than 4% to a three-week low. Its second-quarter revenue and profits exceeded expectations, and its forward guidance was in line with expectations. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America maintained their "buy" ratings, but JPMorgan Chase believed that the premium for the $20 billion acquisition of Figma was too high given the unfavorable economic conditions.

Planet Fitness, the largest discount fitness chain in the United States, fell nearly 16% to a three-year low after unexpectedly removing its CEO, who had been in office for ten years.

Ford Motor Company saw a slight decline, while General Motors rose nearly 1%, and Stellantis rose more than 2%. The United Auto Workers union launched a historic strike against specific factories of these three major automakers, with CCTV estimating that the U.S. economy could lose up to $5 billion.

Nucor Corporation, a steel company, fell 6% to a two-and-a-half-month low due to weak pricing power and sales volume. It also issued a third-quarter profit guidance lower than expected.

Informed sources revealed that Instacart, an online grocery delivery company, plans to determine the IPO price in the United States on Monday, September 18th, and officially start trading on Tuesday, September 19th. With the surge in Arm's stock price on Thursday, Instacart has raised the price guidance range from $26-$28 per share to $28-$30 per share.

Boosted by the European Central Bank's suggestion that the interest rate hike cycle may come to an end and better-than-expected Chinese economic data, European stocks rose across the board. French stocks led major national indices with an increase of nearly 1%. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.23%, with the home goods sector leading the way with a 1.4% increase, and luxury goods stocks providing support.

Yesterday, European stocks rose by 1.5%, marking the largest increase in three months since early June, with a cumulative increase of 1.6% for the week. At the same time, the Italian banking index and the UK stock index both rose more than 3% for the week, while the German stock index rose 1%, and the French and Italian stock indices rose by about 2%.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizes above 5%, rising 4 basis points for the week, while the bond yield rises nearly 6 basis points for the week

U.S. bond yields edged up slightly on Friday, briefly declining after the release of the University of Michigan's inflation expectations cooling data. The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, rose by a maximum of 4 basis points during the day, stabilizing above the 5% level and approaching the recovery of Wednesday's decline. It is not far from the monthly high, with a cumulative increase of more than 4 basis points for the week and a re-breakthrough of 5%. The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose by a maximum of 5 basis points to 4.34%, approaching a three-week high, with a cumulative increase of nearly 6 basis points for the week.

The US bond yield rose for the week, and the two-year US Treasury yield stabilized above 5%.

The 10-year benchmark German bond yield in the eurozone rose more than 8 basis points at the end of the day, hitting a daily high of 2.68%, with a cumulative increase of 6.5 basis points for the week. Yesterday, the European Central Bank hinted at a 6 basis point drop after the end of the rate hike cycle. The two-year yield rose by 5 basis points, reaching a six-week high of 3.214%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 14 basis points for the week, the largest weekly increase since mid-June. The 30-year long bond yield reached its highest level since 2011.

The 10-year UK bond yield rose by about 8 basis points at the end of the day, hitting a daily high of 4.359%, narrowing the cumulative decline for the week to less than 7 basis points. The two-year yield rose by 7 basis points, breaking through 5%, with a cumulative decline of over 6 basis points for the week. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision next Thursday.

Some analysts believe that as the expected monetary tightening cycle of major central banks in Europe and the United States is about to end, risk appetite has caused European bond prices to resume their decline. The 10-year Italian bond yield, which is deeper in debt than peripheral countries in the eurozone, jumped 11 basis points on Friday, after falling 11 basis points yesterday.

Oil prices hit a ten-month high again, with US oil stabilizing above $90 and Brent oil rising nearly 4% for the week for three consecutive weeks

International oil prices hit a ten-month closing high and rose for three consecutive weeks. WTI October crude oil futures closed up $0.61, or 0.67%, at $90.77 per barrel. Brent November futures closed up $0.23, or 0.25%, at $93.93 per barrel.

US WTI crude oil rose by about $1 or 1.1%, reaching a daily high of $91.15 per barrel, the highest since November 8 last year. Brent rose by more than $0.90 or 1%, reaching a daily high of $94.62 per barrel, the highest since November 16 last year.

WTI crude oil rose by 3.7% for the week, and Brent crude oil rose by 3.6%. WTI broke through the psychological barrier of $90 for the first time since November last year, driven by supply tightening from OPEC+ and positive Chinese economic data. WTI has risen by more than 8% in September. Analysts, led by Bank of America, predict that oil prices will quickly return to and surpass the $100 mark by the end of the year. Morgan Stanley also believes that in the short term, oil prices may fluctuate between $80 and $100, but in the long term, they should remain around $80. Some analysts argue that rising oil prices will reignite inflationary pressures. If interest rates remain high for an extended period, it may have a negative impact on the economy and oil demand.

The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas rose nearly 4% at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of about 6%. ICE UK natural gas also rose 4% at the end of the week, with a cumulative increase of over 9% for the week. The increased global supply risk has intensified concerns in the market about fuel supply before the arrival of the European winter heating season.

The US dollar has risen for nine consecutive weeks, and the yen has hit a ten-month low, with the offshore renminbi briefly rising by 300 points to break through 7.26 yuan.

The US dollar index, which measures against six major currencies, has remained slightly above the 105 level, not far from the six-month high of 105.43 reached yesterday. It has risen 0.2% for the week and has risen for nine consecutive weeks, the longest period since 2014 when it rose for 12 consecutive weeks.

The euro has slightly rebounded against the US dollar, still below the 1.07 level, having previously fallen to a six-month low of 1.0629. The British pound has fallen slightly and lost the 1.24 level, hitting a three-and-a-half-month low. The euro has fallen for nine consecutive weeks, the longest period in history. The yen has fallen against the US dollar to nearly 148, hitting a ten-month low. Bank of Japan officials said that Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's speech was misinterpreted, sparking speculation about maintaining negative interest rates.

The offshore renminbi against the US dollar hovered around 7.28 yuan during US stock market trading, rising nearly 100 points from the previous day's close. It reached a high of over 7.26 yuan during the day, rising 300 points from the previous day's close, and remained at a high level for a week and a half. The People's Bank of China's official media, the Financial Times, stated that since September 11, the renminbi against the US dollar has risen for five consecutive trading days, with a cumulative increase of 1% as of 16:30 on September 15, improving market expectations.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies are generally falling. The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, fell 1.5% to $26,300, still hovering near the monthly high, having previously hit a three-month low on Monday. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, fell over 1% and fell below $1,620, still hovering near the weekly high, having previously hit a six-month low on Monday.

Spot gold rose by a maximum of 1% to $1,930, breaking away from a three-week low, and London copper rose by about 2% for the week.

COMEX December gold futures closed up 0.69% on Friday at $1,946.20 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 0.18%. Silver futures rose by about 1.7% on Friday, with a weekly increase of about 0.9%. Spot gold rose by 1% intraday or nearly $20, reaching a whole number of $1930, hitting a new one-week high for the second consecutive day, breaking away from the three-week low since August 23. Spot silver rose by over 2% and returned to $23 per ounce.

Barclays rate strategists suggest trading rates based on the prospect of the Federal Reserve staying put in November. IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong believes that the prospect of rates remaining high for a longer period will continue to put pressure on gold prices.

Spot gold rose by 1% to $1930, breaking away from the three-week low.

London industrial metals fell across the board on Friday:

The economic barometer "Dr. Copper" fell slightly but remained above $8400, with a weekly gain of about 2%, the largest weekly increase since late July, reaching the highest level in nearly two weeks since September 4.

However, despite the positive economic data from China, the main consumer of base metals, copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached the highest level since late July, and registered inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached the highest level since October last year, resulting in deeper discounts for recent deliveries and three-month copper futures, indicating sufficient immediate supply.

London aluminum fell by 1.5% and fell below $2200, breaking away from the one-week high, mainly due to record high monthly production in China in August. London zinc also fell by 1.5%, but remained close to a six-week high. London nickel fell by 2%, falling below $20,000, approaching a new low of more than a year since July last year.