Data rekindles hopes of a soft landing, US stocks rise, Arm's debut soars over 20%, expectations for the end of the ECB rate hike increase, and the euro plunges.

The US economic data released on Thursday showed better-than-expected growth due to the rise in energy prices. Similar to the CPI announced on Wednesday, the August PPI has exceeded expectations for two consecutive months, with a year-on-year growth rate reaching the highest level in over a year and a month-on-month growth rate at its highest in over a year. However, the core PPI, which excludes energy and food, showed a slowdown in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth, in line with expectations. In addition, retail sales in August unexpectedly maintained a strong growth momentum, surpassing expectations and achieving five consecutive months of growth. Furthermore, although the number of initial jobless claims in the US increased compared to the previous week, it remained lower than expected, indicating the resilience of the labor market.

Commentators believe that the recent data supports the expectation of moderate growth in the US economy for some time, which may help the US stock market to continue its upward trend and avoid a recession in the next 12 months. However, the uncertainty of the outlook may result in continued volatility in the overall market.

Following the release of the data, the US stock market opened higher. Apple saw its first increase since the launch of the iPhone 15 and other new products, while chip giant Arm soared on its first day of trading, with an IPO valuation of $54.5 billion, making it the largest IPO globally this year and boosting the technology sector, including chip stocks. After the People's Bank of China's second reserve requirement ratio cut this year, Chinese concept stocks rebounded and outperformed the overall market. On Wednesday, following the announcement of the EU's initiation of anti-subsidy investigations, stocks of new energy vehicle companies such as NIO, which had declined together, rebounded together.

The European Central Bank announced a 25 basis point interest rate hike, while lowering its GDP growth expectations for the next three years and its core inflation expectations for the following two years. Although ECB President Lagarde stated that interest rates have not yet reached their peak, investors are still betting that the ECB's current tightening cycle has ended and that future rate hikes will be halted. The probability of this being the last rate hike is as high as 80%.

After the ECB's decision was announced, the euro initially rose against the US dollar but quickly fell, with the decline widening repeatedly, reaching its lowest level since March. European bond prices rose across the board, leading to a decline in yields, while European stocks rebounded strongly, outperforming their US counterparts. Some commentators believe that Lagarde's mention of keeping interest rates at a sufficiently low level should be seen as the ECB ruling out the possibility of a rate cut in the near future. The ECB's high interest rates are expected to persist for a longer period of time, and the decline of the euro is also expected to continue.

After the ECB's decision was announced, US bond yields declined, hitting a daily low, and bounced back after the release of US economic data such as the PPI. After the US stock market opened, as risk appetite improved, US bond prices continued to fall and yields continued to rise. The yield on the two-year US Treasury bond, which is sensitive to interest rates, has surpassed the 5.0% mark for two consecutive days.

Market expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year have cooled slightly, as have expectations for a rate cut next year. The US economic data improved, and supported by the decline of the euro, the US dollar index rose during the day, surpassing 105.00 again after a week, reaching a new high in half a year. Under the pressure of a stronger US dollar, some non-US currencies fell. Offshore renminbi fell for the first time this week, approaching the high point of 7.26 set in the intraday trading, dropping more than 300 points.

In terms of commodities, crude oil was the big winner on Thursday. After the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a severe supply shortage in the global oil market in the fourth quarter following the OPEC monthly report, market expectations of tighter supply outweighed concerns about weak economies in Europe and the impact of the US Department of Energy's announcement of an increase in US EIA crude oil inventories last week. International crude oil rose more than 2% at one point, and US oil closed above $90 for the first time in ten months.

At the time of the reserve requirement ratio cut by the People's Bank of China, various base metals led by London zinc continued to rise. Gold withstood the pressure of a stronger US dollar and remained roughly flat, still hovering at a three-week low. However, European natural gas failed to continue its rebound, and the market continued to focus on the strike at the Chevron liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Australia, which accounts for 5% of the total global gas supply. The strike at the Chevron LNG plant has escalated, and the daily strike time for workers will be extended. Some analysts pointed out that since maintaining cash flow and a reliable supply is in the common interest of both labor and management, the strike at the LNG plant will at most last for a few days or weeks, rather than several months.

The Dow rebounded to a one-month high, and the ARM rose by 30% at one point. Chinese concept stocks rebounded, and the pan-European stock index recorded its largest increase in six months.

The three major US stock indexes opened higher and maintained their gains. At the midday break, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by more than 400 points, an increase of nearly 1.2%. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by nearly 1%, and the S&P 500 Index rose by more than 0.9%. In the end, the three major indexes closed higher for the second day this week after Monday.

The Dow, which fell for two consecutive days, closed up 331.58 points, or 0.96%, at 34,907.11, reaching a new high since August 15. The S&P 500 rose by 0.84% to 4,505.10, closing above 4,500 for the first time since last Friday, September 1. The Nasdaq rose by 0.81% to 13,926.05, reaching a high since Tuesday, September 5, and closing higher for the third day this week.

The small-cap Russell 2000, which is dominated by value stocks, rose by 1.4%, outperforming the broader market and rebounding to a high since September 6 after falling on Wednesday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index rose by more than 1% at one point and closed up 0.82%, rising for the second consecutive day to a high since September 5. After rising together on Thursday, major stock indexes all broke through key technical levels. The Russell 2000 broke through the 100-day moving average, and the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq broke through the 50-day moving average.

The major sectors of the S&P 500 collectively rose, with healthcare being the only sector that increased by nearly 0.3%. Other sectors saw gains of at least 0.7%, with real estate leading the way with a 1.7% increase. Utilities, materials, energy, and communication services, including Meta, all rose by over 1%, while the industrial sector increased by approximately 1%.

Most of the leading technology stocks continued to rise. Tesla, which had the largest increase since January 26th, rose by nearly 1.8% on Monday, marking its second consecutive day of gains and reaching a new high since July 19th.

Among the six major FAANMG technology stocks, Meta, the parent company of Facebook, rose by nearly 2.2%, reaching a new high since August 8th after two consecutive days of gains. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, rose by approximately 1% for two consecutive days, reaching a high since April of last year. Apple increased by nearly 0.9%, ending its two-day decline and experiencing its first increase since the release of the iPhone 15 and other new products on Tuesday, breaking away from the low point reached on August 17th. Microsoft rose by approximately 0.8% for two consecutive days, reaching a high since July 25th. On the other hand, Netflix, which fell by over 5% after the CFO released a weak operating profit guidance and stated that the advertising business was not yet mature, continued to decline, closing at a low since June 7th with a decrease of nearly 2.9%. Amazon, which rebounded on Wednesday to a high since April of last year, fell by nearly 0.1%.

Overall, chip stocks rose for two consecutive days, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX initially increasing by over 1% and closing with a gain of approximately 0.7%. Among individual stocks, Arm, a giant in chip architecture design, surged by 10% on its first day of listing on the Nasdaq, with the stock price reaching nearly $66.30 at one point during the day, a daily increase of approximately 30%. It ultimately closed at $63.59, a 24.69% increase from the IPO price of $51. Semtech, which had a weaker guidance for the third quarter but far exceeded expectations for the second quarter, rose by approximately 10%. Broadcom increased by over 2% at the close, while Qualcomm, Micron Technology, and Texas Instruments rose by over 1%. NVIDIA increased by 0.2%, while AMD fell by 1% and Intel fell by 0.1%.

ARM rose by 24.7% on its first day of listing, with a 30% increase at midday.

Most AI concept stocks followed the overall market's upward trend. C3.ai increased by 1.6% at the close, Palantir rose by nearly 1.5%, and BigBear.ai increased by 0.6%. However, SoundHound.ai fell by nearly 4.9%, and Adobe fell by nearly 0.3%. After the market closed, Adobe announced that its third-quarter revenue was slightly higher than expected and its fourth-quarter guidance was in line with expectations, but its post-market decline still expanded. The majority of popular Chinese concept stocks that had been falling for two consecutive days rebounded. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose more than 1% during trading and closed up nearly 1%. Chinese concept ETFs KWEB and CQQQ rose 0.4% and less than 0.1% respectively. After the three new energy vehicle stocks, which had fallen together after the EU announced an anti-subsidy investigation into electric vehicles imported from China on Wednesday, rebounded together, NIO rose more than 3% at the close, XPeng rose more than 1%, and Li Auto rose 0.5%. Among other individual stocks, Alibaba, Pinduoduo, Bilibili, and NetEase rose less than 1% at the close, Tencent Music rose 0.3%, JD.com rose less than 0.1%, while Baidu fell 0.3%.

Banking stocks rebounded, outperforming the broader market. The overall banking industry indicator, the KBW Bank Index (BKX), rose nearly 1.9%, approaching the high since September 1st that was refreshed after three consecutive days of gains on Tuesday; the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) rose 1.7%, and the regional bank stock ETF, SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), rose nearly 2%, both rebounding to highs since September 5th.

Among major banks, Goldman Sachs rose nearly 2.9% at the close, leading the Dow Jones Industrial Average components, Morgan Stanley rose over 2%, JPMorgan Chase rose nearly 2%, Wells Fargo rose nearly 1.9%, Citigroup rose 1.8%, and Bank of America rose 1.1%. Among regional banks, at the close, PacWest Bancorp (PACW) rose more than 3%, Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) and Zions Bancorporation (ZION) rose more than 2%, and KeyCorp (KEY) rose nearly 2%.

Among stocks with significant volatility, electric vehicle manufacturer Nikola (NKLA), which plans to release hydrogen fuel cell trucks, rose 32.2%; sports betting company Penn National Gaming (PENN), which was first covered by Deutsche Bank and given a buy rating, rose 8.7% after the company's valuation was lowered before the launch of ESPN BET in November; Yum China Holdings (YUMC) rose nearly 5.5% after announcing plans to increase its stores to 20,000 by 2026 on Investor Day; e-commerce company Etsy (ETSY) rose 3.3% after Wolfe Research upgraded its rating to outperform the market due to improved consumer spending and profitability; AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC), a stock favored by retail investors, initially rose 10% after announcing the completion of the sale of 40 million shares to raise $325.5 million, but then fell continuously and closed down 1.2%; after Berkshire Hathaway, owned by Warren Buffett, disclosed the sale of about 5.5 million shares of HP Inc., HPQ fell nearly 3% during trading and closed down 1.8%.

European stocks outperformed U.S. stocks on Thursday. The European Central Bank hinted that the tightening phase is nearing its end, and mining and energy stocks, benefiting from the rise in commodities, rebounded strongly, leading to a sharp rebound in the pan-European stock index, which had fallen for two consecutive days. The STOXX Europe 600 Index rose more than 1.5%, marking the largest closing gain since March 14th and the first time it closed above 460 points since August 10th. Major European stock indices rose across the board, with gains of nearly 1% or more.

In terms of sectors, basic resources, which include mining stocks, rose by 4.2%, while interest rate-sensitive real estate sectors increased by approximately 3%. Oil and gas sectors, supported by rising oil prices, saw gains of over 2.4%. Among individual stocks, mining giants listed in London, such as Anglo American Resources Group, rose by approximately 7.7%, while BHP and Rio Tinto both increased by around 4.7%. Other notable gains include Glencore, which rose by nearly 4.4%, and provided strong support for the British stock market, which led the way among European stock indices. On the other hand, THG, a UK e-commerce company expected to experience zero growth or a 5% decline in annual revenue, plummeted by 21.3%. French wine company Pernod Ricard and luxury goods company LVMH, both downgraded by Barclays from "buy" to "sell," fell by 0.3% and 1.4% respectively.

The US dollar index reached a six-month high, while the euro hit a three-month low. Offshore renminbi briefly approached 7.26 before retreating more than 300 points.

The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rates of six major currencies including the euro, fell below 104.60 before the European stock market opened, hitting a daily low and dropping nearly 0.2% during the day. However, it rebounded and turned positive after the European Central Bank announced its decision and the release of US retail sales and PPI data, surpassing 105.00 before the US stock market opened. It briefly rose above 105.40 during the US stock market session, with a daily gain of over 0.6%. After reaching a new high since March 10th last Thursday, it once again hit a new intraday high since March 9th, rising by more than 0.6% during the day.

By the close of the US stock market on Thursday, the US dollar index was above 105.30, with a daily gain of over 0.3%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the US dollar against ten other currencies, rose by nearly 0.3%. Both indices rebounded after falling on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive day of gains this week.

The rebound of the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index on Thursday, driven by the plunge of the euro.

Among non-US currencies, the euro rose above 1.0750 before the European stock market opened, with a daily gain of over 0.2%. After initially rising following the European Central Bank meeting, it continued to decline, falling below 1.0640 during the US stock market session and approaching 1.0630, hitting a new intraday low since late March with a daily decline of approximately 0.9%. The British pound fell below 1.2400 during the US stock market session, hitting an intraday low since early June, with a daily decline of over 0.7%. After two consecutive days of decline, the Japanese yen rebounded. The US dollar against the Japanese yen briefly turned positive during the US stock market session amid a surge in the US dollar, but then resumed its downward trend. It fell by 0.3% during the day, still far from the low of 145.91 reached on Monday, which was the lowest level since September 1st. The US dollar against the Japanese yen is expected to continue its downward trend this week after a sharp drop on Monday due to the Bank of Japan Governor's speech reinforcing expectations of the withdrawal of negative interest rates. The offshore renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar approached the 7.2600 level in the early Asian session, rising to 7.2608. It has hit a high since September 4th, rising 111 points intraday. After a brief decline in the early Asian session, the decline continued as the US stock market opened with a surge in the US dollar. The US stock market approached 7.30 and hit a daily low of 7.2971, falling 252 points intraday and retracing 363 points from the daily high. At 4:59 am Beijing time on September 15th, the offshore renminbi against the US dollar was reported at 7.2902 yuan, down 183 points from the New York closing on Wednesday, falling after three consecutive days of gains. Due to the positive credit data released by China on Monday, the renminbi is expected to continue to rise this week.

High-risk cryptocurrencies followed the rise of European and American stock markets. Bitcoin (BTC) was below $26,200 in the early Asian session, but rose sharply during the European stock market session. The US stock market briefly exceeded $26,800, hitting a high since August 31st, with an increase of over $700 and nearly 3% from the daily low. At the close of the US stock market, it hovered around $26,600, with an increase of over 1% in the past 24 hours.

European bond prices rose across the board, and European bond yields continued to decline after the European Central Bank announced an interest rate hike. The yield on European bonds hit a daily low when ECB President Lagarde mentioned that it was too early to declare that interest rates had peaked. German bond yields retraced their gains from Wednesday, while UK bond yields fell for three consecutive days.

At the end of the bond market, the yield on the UK 10-year benchmark government bond closed at 4.27%, down 6 basis points intraday, breaking below 4.25% during Lagarde's press conference to hit a daily low. The yield on the 10-year benchmark German government bond closed at 2.59%, down 6 basis points intraday, briefly falling below 2.57% during Lagarde's press conference, hitting a low since September 4th. The yield on the 2-year German government bond closed at 3.13%, down 3 basis points intraday, approaching 3.19% when the ECB announced the interest rate hike before quickly dropping.

After the European Central Bank's decision was announced before the US stock market opened on Thursday, US bond yields, which had fallen after the CPI data release on Wednesday, continued to decline, hitting a daily low. The yield on the US 10-year benchmark government bond briefly fell below 4.22% before the US stock market opened, down more than 3 basis points intraday. The US stock market continued to rise in the early session, reaching nearly 4.30% at noon, up nearly 5 basis points intraday, but still below the high of 4.34% reached after the CPI data release on Wednesday, which was the highest since August 22nd. At the end of the bond market, it was around 4.29%, up about 4 basis points intraday, reversing the downward trend of the previous two days.

Various maturities of US bond yields turned upward during Thursday's trading session.

Various maturities of US bond yields turned upward during Thursday's trading session. The 2-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, fell below 4.95% before the US stock market opened, hitting a daily low. It rose more than 2 basis points during the day. In midday trading, it rose above 5.0% for the second consecutive day, reaching a high of nearly 5.03% at one point. It rose nearly 6 basis points during the day, approaching the high of 5.08% reached on August 28, the Monday before last, after the release of the CPI data on Wednesday. It was around 5.01% at the end of the bond market session, up about 4 basis points during the day (closing at 4.9692% on Wednesday), rebounding after falling on Wednesday, and climbing for the second day this week.

The 2-year Treasury yield rose above 5.0% for the second consecutive day during intraday trading.

Crude oil hits a ten-month high on Tuesday, US oil breaks $90 for the first time in ten months

International crude oil futures, which fell on Wednesday, rebounded throughout Thursday, with US WTI crude oil rising above $90 to $90.5 during midday trading, and Brent crude oil approaching $93.90 to $93.89, both rising by about 2.2% during the day.

In the end, crude oil rose for the second day this week, hitting a ten-month high after Tuesday. WTI October crude oil futures rose 1.85% to $90.16 per barrel, closing above $90 for the first time since November 7 last year. Brent November crude oil futures rose $1.82, or 1.98%, to $93.70 per barrel, reaching the highest closing price since November 15 last year.

US WTI crude oil rose above $90 for the first time since November last year.

European natural gas fell during intraday trading, giving back about half of the gains from the rebound on Wednesday, and fell for the second day this week. UK natural gas futures fell 3.28% to 89.27 pence per therm, falling from the closing high since August 23; TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures on the European continent fell 3.52% to 35.521 euros per MWh, falling from the closing high since August 28, which was refreshed on Wednesday.

US gasoline and natural gas futures both rose. NYMEX October gasoline futures rose 0.16% to $2.7427 per gallon, rising for seven consecutive days and reaching a new high since August 23 for the fifth consecutive day; NYMEX October natural gas futures, which had risen for four consecutive days, rose 1.04% to $2.708 per million British thermal units, approaching the closing high since September 1, which was refreshed on Tuesday.

London Zinc Rises for the Second Consecutive Month to a Four-Month High, Gold Barely Halts Two Consecutive Declines, Lingering at a Three-Week Low

London base metal futures mostly rose on Thursday. London Zinc led the gains with an increase of over 1.7%, reaching a four-month high. London Tin and London Nickel also rose more than 1% for the second consecutive day. London Tin and London Nickel continued to rebound from their respective lows set in early June and the past month. London Lead, which had declined for two consecutive days, rose more than 1% and approached the high set nearly eight months ago on Monday. London Copper, which rebounded on Wednesday, closed flat and did not fall to the three-week low set last Friday.

New York gold futures hit a daily low during early US trading, falling nearly 0.6% intraday, but managed to erase the losses and barely halt the downward trend after two consecutive days of decline. COMEX December gold futures closed up $0.3, or 0.01%, at $1932.80 per ounce, still close to the closing low set on the second consecutive day on Wednesday since August 22.

Spot gold, like New York gold futures, closed roughly flat on Thursday.