Tesla's stock price has skyrocketed, but not everyone is buying it. Opponents say: "Morgan Stanley has missed out before!"

On Monday, September 11th, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who is known for his focus on Tesla, made an unusually optimistic prediction about the future of the company. As a result, Tesla's stock price skyrocketed by over 10%, marking its best single-day performance since January and pushing the stock price above $270, increasing its market value by nearly $80 billion.

According to the report led by Jonas and his team, Tesla's supercomputer Dojo could potentially add up to $500 billion in market value to the company, which currently has a market value of around $800 billion.

Morgan Stanley believes that the autonomous driving system in cars is considered the "mother of all AI projects." In the process of seeking solutions to autonomous driving, Tesla has developed the advanced Dojo supercomputer, which could open up "new potential markets" for the company:

The Dojo supercomputer is designed to handle large amounts of data for training autonomous driving systems, and it could bring "asymmetric advantages" to Tesla in this potentially $10 trillion autonomous driving field.

From now on, software and services become the biggest value drivers for Tesla.

The more we research Dojo, the more we realize that the value of Tesla's stock may be underestimated. We believe Dojo can represent a significant change in the market's perception of Tesla.

Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2040, Tesla's revenue from network services will reach $335 billion, accounting for over 60% of Tesla's overall EBITDA, replacing car manufacturing as the company's core business.

During the first-quarter conference call this year, Elon Musk stated that Dojo is a "long-term bet" that could potentially bring "hundreds of billions of dollars" in returns if it develops as the company hopes.

However, not all Wall Street analysts share such an optimistic view of Tesla.

Jerry Braakman, Chief Investment Officer of First American Trust, believes:

Can Dojo or its supported fully autonomous driving technology be worth $500 billion? Of course, but the key is whether it will truly succeed. We believe this is a big assumption because replicating the human brain is indeed very complex.

A similar situation occurred in 2015. Investors were concerned that Jonas' predictions had not been proven correct.

In 2015, based on the potential of Tesla's "shared mobility" business, Jonas raised his target by 66%. At that time, he predicted that Tesla would launch fully autonomous taxis around 2025. However, this prediction did not come true, leading analysts to significantly lower their expectations for the autonomous taxi business over the years. At the same time, Tesla is still committed to developing software that will enable its cars to achieve true autonomous driving, although experts and analysts believe that widespread adoption of fully autonomous vehicles will still take several years, if not decades. By mid-2019, Jonas had lowered his expectations for Tesla Mobility (Tesla's ride-sharing/robotaxi business) by about 82%.

Tesla itself has high hopes for the Dojo supercomputer. In July, Musk stated that the company is making every effort to become a player in the supercomputing field and plans to invest over $1 billion in Dojo by the end of 2024.

Regardless of the potential of this computer, some investors find Morgan Stanley's prediction of adding $500 billion to Tesla's market value "strange," especially considering Tesla's already high valuation.

Ivana Delevska, Chief Investment Officer of Spear Invest, said:

Autonomous driving clearly presents significant opportunities, but it will take several years to achieve, and it is still unclear who will benefit the most. We do not believe this is a winner-takes-all market.

Owuraka Koney of Jennison Associates, another long-time supporter of Tesla, stated earlier this year that it will take several years to achieve fully autonomous driving, and until then, the automotive business will be crucial for Tesla's performance growth.

Although Wall Street has continuously questioned Morgan Stanley's overly optimistic target price, Jonas is not alone, and he is not even the most enthusiastic "fan" of Tesla.

Tom Narayan, an analyst at Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, has a target price of $305 for Tesla and a buy rating. He believes that most of the stock's value (about $210 per share) comes from the autonomous ride-sharing business.

"Cathie Wood," also known as "Wood Sister," stated earlier this year that Tesla's autonomous driving car plan is much more important than its electric vehicle strategy. The company's price target for Tesla in 2027 is $2,000, with the future robotaxi business contributing more than two-thirds.

To achieve Jonas' prediction, Tesla's stock price would need to rise more than 60% from last Friday's closing price in the next 12 months. The stock has already risen 121% this year, and technical indicators show that it is approaching overbought levels.