Wall Street's top economists: The Federal Reserve has already ended rate hikes and will cut interest rates by 100 basis points next year.

According to Dolphin Research, some of the largest banks in North America have stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have come to an end, and there may be a rate cut of about one percentage point next year. The latest forecast from the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association suggests that although the US economy may avoid a recession, the economic growth in the coming quarters is expected to significantly slow down, leading to higher unemployment rates and lower inflation. Simona Mocuta, Chief Economist of Dolfhin Research and Chair of the 14-member committee, stated, "Considering the demonstrated and expected progress in inflation, the majority of the committee members believe that the tightening cycle of the Federal Reserve has come to an end."

It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week, but there is disagreement among investors as to whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates later this year. The members of the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association include economists from JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo. The committee's forecasts are regularly submitted to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other members of the Federal Reserve Board.

According to their median forecast, influenced by the Federal Reserve's past rate hikes and tightening credit conditions, the committee expects the annualized growth rate of the US economy to slow to below 1% in the next three quarters. By the end of next year, the unemployment rate is projected to rise from 3.8% in August to 4.4%, while the consumer price inflation rate is expected to drop from 3.2% in July to 2.2%. The committee believes that the probability of a US economic recession next year is slightly less than 50%.

Mocuta told reporters, "As a consensus of the committee, the likelihood of a soft landing in the short term has significantly increased. However, at the same time, many people are still concerned about whether the extraordinary resilience demonstrated by the economy so far can be sustained."