Morgan Stanley warns: Complacency in the U.S. stock market is worrisome.

From a historical perspective, the performance of the US stock market is usually weak in September. Nevertheless, the market's optimism towards US stocks remains unabated. The team of strategists at J.P. Morgan warns that this complacency among US stock investors is worrisome.

Mislav Matejka, an analyst at J.P. Morgan, and his team wrote:

The US stock market is clearly exhibiting complacency, with volatility index nearing historical lows and positions increasing above average levels. There is no longer a safety net for US stocks, and a trend of retail investors entering the market in a frenzy is emerging due to the fear of missing out on the current rally.

Due to market expectations of an imminent peak in US interest rates and better-than-expected US economic performance, the US stock market has been on a continuous rise this year. Benefiting from the AI boom, the performance of technology stocks has been particularly remarkable. Matejka states that although US stocks typically perform weakly in September, market sentiment and positions are far from pessimistic:

There is no cushion anymore, as investor sentiment now believes that a soft landing is inevitable.

The team believes that the forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 19 times for the MSCI US Index is already too high, especially relative to higher actual US bond yields. Foreign stock markets continue to be more attractive than the US stock market. His team continues to increase holdings in stocks from other regions around the world, particularly in the Swiss stock market.

In mid-August, Bank of America released the results of a survey of 211 global fund managers. The survey, which covered fund managers collectively managing $545 billion in assets, found that investors' pessimism towards the stock market has fallen to the lowest level since February last year, before the Federal Reserve initiated its current cycle of aggressive rate hikes.

The Bank of America survey shows that although respondents still expect global economic growth to weaken in the next 12 months, the outlook for August has significantly improved. Only 45% of surveyed investors anticipate weaker global economic growth in the next 12 months, a significant decrease from the 60% proportion in the July survey, indicating a reduction in their concerns about an economic recession.