20,000 to buy a Tesla, it fell through.

Wallstreetcn
2023.09.01 06:29
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Disruption.

Never before has a car model undergone such a remarkable upgrade.

Over the past 10 months, there have been numerous rumors about a major upgrade for the Tesla Model 3. With Tesla initiating a price war earlier this year, it has been speculated that the price of the upgraded Model 3 could drop to below 200,000 yuan, causing a stir in the market.

On September 1st, Tesla quietly updated the information about the upgraded Model 3 on its official website, finally revealing the mystery. The starting price is 259,900 yuan, bringing temporary relief to many car manufacturers.

However, although the price of the upgraded Model 3 did not meet market expectations and dropped to 200,000 yuan shortly after its release, it underwent a comprehensive revolution in terms of manufacturing technology and user experience.

Whether it's the integration of die-casting technology on the Model 3 or the adoption of a pure visual approach, these innovations lay the foundation for a decrease in the overall manufacturing cost of the upgraded Model 3. Tesla, which follows a cost-based pricing model, will have more room for adjustments in the price of the upgraded Model 3.

By upgrading the Model 3, Tesla aims to enhance its competitiveness in the current market. Tesla also emphasizes that the launch of the upgraded Model 3 is part of its vision to "make intelligent electric vehicles affordable for everyone," along with the Model Y, accelerating its realization.

The launch of the upgraded Model 3 has put pressure on its competitors. On September 1st, Xiaopeng Motors announced discounts on the P7i, with a maximum reduction of 24,000 yuan. BYD also introduced the DM-i version of the Dolphin Research, competing head-on with Tesla. A storm has already swept through the mid-size sedan market. Insiders familiar with Xiaopeng Motors say they have always had the "card" (price reduction) in their hands, they were just waiting for the right moment to play it.

The upgraded Model 3, like a "youth version" of the Model S, emphasizes a sportier design. The starting price for the rear-wheel drive upgraded Model 3 is 259,900 yuan, which is 28,000 yuan higher than the current entry-level price (231,900 yuan). The upgraded Model 3 has undergone multiple upgrades in terms of cabin interaction, design, and driving experience.

The most significant difference from the previous version is the completely redesigned front and rear lights, as well as the design of the rear entertainment screen and audio system, which have slightly upgraded the upgraded Model 3 from its previous "bare shell" state. In terms of power batteries, both the rear-wheel drive version and the long-range version of the upgraded Model 3 have improved their range.

However, Tesla's updates in terms of driving experience have been controversial. They have eliminated the gear lever, integrating it into the steering wheel, and replaced the gear selector with a touch-based system similar to the one used in the Model S.

Some industry insiders believe that eliminating the physical gear selector and adopting a touch-based system is somewhat radical and poses certain safety risks.

The biggest change is in the autonomous driving system. All previous radar systems, including ultrasonic and millimeter-wave radar, have been removed, and a "pure vision" approach has been adopted. This is also the solution that Elon Musk has been aiming to implement. In a live test drive of the FSD V12 version last week, Musk showcased the capabilities of the end-to-end AI autonomous driving system based on pure vision. From the perspective of overall configuration data innovation, Tesla once again follows its path of refining craftsmanship and reducing manufacturing costs.

With 200,000 to 300,000 yuan becoming the main battlefield for car manufacturers' competition, Musk must enhance the competitiveness of Model 3. Currently, the sales volume of Model 3 does not match Musk's vision outlined in the third chapter of his grand plan.

The 200,000 to 300,000 yuan price range is currently the most fiercely competitive segment. Lin Jinwen, Vice President of Jikey, bluntly stated, "The competition in the 300,000 yuan market is too intense."

In mid-August, Jikey 001, starting at 300,000 yuan, announced a price reduction to 269,000 yuan. Feifan F7, Zhiji LS6, Xiaopeng P7i, and ET5T are also targeting Model 3. BYD has also launched the Dolphin Research, which has accumulated sales of over 100,000 units since its launch in July last year.

As a model launched in 2017, Model 3 has not undergone major updates in terms of configuration in the past six years. This has made it difficult for Model 3 to achieve significant sales growth in the domestic market, despite being favored by many consumers. In the past three years, the total delivery volume of domestically produced Model 3 was 137,000 units, 151,000 units, and 124,000 units, respectively. Even after the price reduction earlier this year, the monthly sales volume has remained around 10,000 units.

The automotive industry has always had a strategy of minor changes every year and major changes every three years. There are very few models that can go 6-8 years without a major upgrade. The fact that Model 3 has not undergone major innovations in 6 years is partly because there are not many pure electric models competing with it in the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan price range, and partly because Model 3 started production two years earlier than Model Y, so it did not benefit significantly from the cost reduction brought by Tesla's integrated casting process.

Musk has also been repeatedly asked when he will improve the production process of Model 3, no longer welding hundreds of parts together, but using integrated casting technology. His answer is that it is a matter of time. In the past, due to the need for production line innovation during model changes, factory shutdowns for upgrades, and last year's focus on "capacity hell," Musk had no time to make major upgrades to Model 3.

Now is the time for change.

More importantly, the launch of the refreshed version of Model 3 is a rehearsal. It will lay the foundation for Tesla's upcoming 150,000 yuan Model Q. According to Musk's plan, the production cost of Model Q will be half that of Model 3. He also hopes to make car manufacturing as simple as "building blocks," which means there can be more common components between Model 3 and Model Q, utilizing economies of scale to reduce production costs.

In the past, the production process and components of Model 3 were difficult to match with this vision. Now, with the launch of the refreshed version of Model 3, there is a possibility for the realization of the 150,000 yuan Model Q. This also means that the Model 3 Refresh Edition is not in a hurry to lower its price to 200,000 yuan, as it still has enough profit margin. Below that range, the main competitor is the Model Q, priced between 150,000 and 200,000 yuan. The Model 3 needs to maintain a certain price difference from it.

Facing this new battle initiated by Tesla, its competitors also need to carefully consider how to respond.