US stocks rose for the fourth consecutive day, with Chinese concept stocks down 0.2%. NVIDIA closed at a new high, while the US dollar and US bond yields declined.

Poor US Economic Data. The revised annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate of real GDP for the second quarter in the United States was 2.1%, lower than the expected and initial reading of 2.4%. Personal consumption expenditure was slightly revised upward to an increase of 1.7%, but inventory investment and business spending on equipment and intellectual property products were lowered.

In August, private sector employment in the United States increased by 177,000 according to ADP, marking the lowest growth rate since March and falling short of expectations. This is a significant decrease from the revised previous value of 371,000, indicating a slowdown in labor demand and helping to alleviate pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

The overall weak economic data this week has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle may have come to an end. The probability of the Fed staying put in September has risen to nearly 89%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in November has further dropped to less than 42%.

Germany's harmonized consumer price index (CPI) for August exceeded expectations with a year-on-year initial value of 6.4%, while Spain's inflation for August surpassed the previous value with a year-on-year initial value of 2.6%. Market expectations for Thursday's release of Eurozone inflation remain stubborn, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank in September increasing from 50% to 60%.

Dow Jones Index Fluctuates but Closes with Fourth Consecutive Gain for US Stocks, NVIDIA Sets New Closing High, Baidu Rises Over 3%, Pinduoduo Rises Over 5%

On Wednesday, August 30th, US stocks opened high and continued to rise. They briefly turned downward before recovering their upward momentum. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell small-cap stocks, which all rose more than 1% yesterday, hit new intraday highs in the afternoon. The Dow Jones Index initially rose by 170 points and briefly surpassed 35,000 points.

The Dow Jones Index briefly turned downward in the final trading session, but US stocks ultimately rose for the fourth consecutive day. The Dow Jones and Russell small-cap stocks reached their highest levels since mid-August, while the S&P 500 reached its highest level in over three weeks since August 7th, and the Nasdaq reached a four-week high since August 1st. However, major stock indices experienced cumulative declines in August:

The S&P 500 Index closed up 17.24 points, a gain of 0.38%, at 4,514.87 points. The Dow Jones Index closed up 37.57 points, a gain of 0.11%, at 34,890.24 points. The Nasdaq closed up 75.55 points, a gain of 0.54%, at 14,019.31 points. The Nasdaq 100, which rose over 2% yesterday, continued to rise by 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index rose by 0.4%.

Most of the star technology stocks rose, and the "Metaverse" Meta fell by 1%; Apple rose nearly 2%, Tesla turned down 0.1%, both hovering around their recent highs; Google A rose 1% to reach its highest level since April last year, Microsoft rose 0.1%, Netflix rose 1%, all reaching three-week highs, and Amazon rose 0.1%.

Chip stocks rose for three consecutive days. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.4%, hitting a three-week high. Intel rose 0.6% to reach a two-week high, AMD rose 0.7% rebounding from a three-month low for the fourth day, and Nvidia rose 1% to set a new closing high for two consecutive days.

Nvidia's stock price reached a new closing high for two consecutive days, but $500 may serve as a strong resistance level.

AI concept stocks also rose across the board. C3.ai rose 2%, Palantir Technologies rose 6%, rebounding from three-month and two-month lows for the fourth day, SoundHound.ai rose over 6% to a five-week high, and BigBear.ai, which rose more than 17% yesterday, rose another 8%, far from its seven-month low.

In terms of news, Google will hold a press conference on October 4th to release the Pixel 8 smartphone and Pixel Watch 2 smartwatch, implying AI features. Insiders said that Apple's production methods have undergone a major change, testing the production of the steel chassis for the new smartwatch using a 3D printer. After 3D Systems rose more than 10%, it closed up 2%. Microsoft founder Bill Gates will attend the Artificial Intelligence Insight Forum hosted by US Senate Majority Leader Schumer on September 13th. Guggenheim maintains a sell rating on Tesla, which rose more than 7% this week.

Popular Chinese concept indices fell slightly. ETF KWEB fell 0.8%, CQQQ rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell 0.2%, falling below 7,100 points after rising 3.7% to a nearly three-week high yesterday.

Among the Nasdaq 100 constituents, JD.com fell 1.5%, Baidu rose more than 3%, and Pinduoduo rose more than 5%. Among other individual stocks, Alibaba's decline narrowed to 0.4%, Tencent ADR fell 0.7%, Bilibili, NIO, and Xpeng all fell by about 2%, and Xiaopeng Motors fell 1.7%, while Reddy Medicine ADR rose more than 11%.

In terms of news, Goldman Sachs upgraded Pinduoduo ADR from Neutral to Buy, with a target price of $129. Baidu's large-scale language model "Wenxin Yiyuan" will be fully open to the whole society starting from August 31st. Reddy Medicine's drug Ripretinib for the treatment of advanced solid tumors has obtained the fourth breakthrough therapy designation from the National Medical Products Administration.

Banking stocks fell below their two-week high. The industry benchmark Philadelphia Stock Exchange KBW Bank Index (BKX) fell 0.6%, hitting its lowest level since October 2020 on May 4th. KBW Nasdaq Regional Bank Index (KRX) fell 0.7% on May 1, hitting the lowest level since November 2020; SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell 0.7% on May 4, hitting the lowest level since October 2020.

Other stocks with significant changes include:

VinFast Auto, the "Vietnamese Tesla," which plummeted 44% yesterday, rose more than 24% and then fell nearly 11% to a new weekly low, with a market value of less than $100 billion. It had previously surged nearly 700% in the first half month of its listing, surpassing Goldman Sachs in market value and experiencing a six-day consecutive increase to a historical high.

HP, a personal computer and printer manufacturer, initially fell more than 11%, marking the largest decline in over two years, and closed down nearly 7% to a three-month low. Its weak third-quarter revenue and downward revision of annual profit guidance raised concerns among analysts about the sluggish printer business. Dell Technologies also fell 5% at one point.

The Biden administration in the United States called for the reclassification of marijuana as a low-risk American drug category, which means that the marijuana market may expand in the United States. Marijuana stocks rose 10% to 20% during trading, and Tilray rose more than 21% before closing up nearly 11% to a two-week high. The marijuana-related ETF MJ rose 11%, marking the largest single-day increase in ten months.

European stocks opened higher but closed lower, with only the UK and Italy stock indices barely up. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 0.15% from a two-week high, with utility stocks down nearly 2% and media stocks up 0.7% against the trend.

Yields on European and American bonds collectively decline, with 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields hitting a three-week low

The cooling of U.S. economic data continues to depress U.S. bond yields, and the downward adjustment of interest rate expectations has led to a relatively deep decline in short-term bond yields.

The yield on 2-year U.S. bonds, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, fell the most, by 5 basis points to 4.84%, approaching the two-and-a-half-week gain since August 11. The yield on 10-year benchmark bonds fell the most by 3 basis points and briefly fell below 4.10%, reaching a three-week low.

Yields on 2-year and 10-year U.S. bonds, which fell more than 10 basis points yesterday, hit a three-week low again

However, the resilience of economic data has led to an accumulation of approximately 13 basis points in the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds in August, and an accumulation of approximately 2 basis points in the yield on 2-year bonds during the month, significantly outperforming the nearly 4 basis points increase in the yield on 10-year German bonds and the double-digit decline in the yield on 2-year German bonds. After the release of inflation data, European bond yields rose across the board, as the market increased its bets on a September rate hike by the European Central Bank. The yields on 10-year and 2-year German bonds, the benchmarks for the eurozone, rose by about 3 basis points at the close. However, the rise in European bond yields was halved during the intraday trading session due to better-than-expected US economic data.

The yields on Italian, French, Spanish, and Greek bonds also rose by 3 to 5 basis points at the close. The yield on 10-year UK bonds remained largely unchanged, while the yield on 30-year bonds rose by nearly 2 basis points, and the yield on 2-year bonds fell by nearly 1 basis point.

US oil rises for the fifth consecutive day to a two-week high, briefly surpassing $82 per barrel, as concerns over supply disruptions from hurricanes push natural gas prices up by 5%

Supply cuts continue to push international oil prices higher. WTI October crude oil futures closed up $0.47, or 0.58%, at $81.63 per barrel. Brent October futures closed up $0.37, or 0.43%, at $85.86 per barrel, while natural gas prices in the US rose by 5%.

WTI crude oil reached a high of $0.9, or 1.1%, briefly surpassing $82 per barrel, marking the highest closing level in two weeks after rising for five consecutive days. Brent November futures, which saw more active trading, reached a high of $0.75, or 0.9%, marking a two-week high for the second consecutive day.

US oil rises for the fifth consecutive day to a two-week high, briefly surpassing $82 per barrel

US crude oil inventories fell sharply by 10.6 million barrels last week, far exceeding the expected decline of 2.19 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 210,000 barrels, falling short of the expected decline of 1.25 million barrels but surpassing the previous increase of 1.47 million barrels. However, the peak summer travel season in the US will end next week.

The market continues to focus on Hurricane Ida's impact on major oil and natural gas production bases in the southeastern United States, where production and refining activities may be further disrupted. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that this region accounts for approximately 15% of US oil production and 5% of natural gas production.

Another signal of tightening global oil supply is that Russia's oil exports in September will decrease by 300,000 barrels per day compared to June. Analysts widely expect Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, to continue voluntarily cutting production by 1 million barrels per day in October.

At the close, the TTF Dutch natural gas futures rose by more than 1%, while UK natural gas futures fell by 0.3%. The market is concerned about whether Chevron's two major liquefied natural gas production facilities in Australia will begin a worker strike next week, which accounts for approximately 5% of global LNG production capacity.

The US dollar briefly falls below 103, reaching a two-week low, the yen falls below 146, offshore renminbi falls below 7.30, and Bitcoin falls by 3%

The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.6% and briefly fell below the 103 level, marking a two-week low after three consecutive days of decline. Last Friday, it reached the highest level in twelve weeks since June 1, but it still recorded a 2% gain in August, putting an end to two months of consecutive declines. The US dollar index briefly fell below 103, hitting a two-week low.

The euro rose 0.6% against the US dollar and broke through 1.09, reaching a two-week high. Last Friday, it hit its lowest level in nearly 11 weeks. The British pound rose 0.9% against the US dollar and broke through 1.27, almost erasing the decline since last Thursday. It hit its lowest level since mid-June.

The Japanese yen fell below the 146 level against the US dollar. Yesterday, it fell to 147.38, the lowest level in nearly ten months since early November last year. The euro against the yen reached a new high since September 2008. The offshore renminbi fell below 7.30 yuan, dropping 210 points from the previous day's close.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies are generally falling. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, fell nearly 3% to $27,100, after reaching a two-week high of over $28,000 yesterday. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, fell more than 2% and fell below the $1,700 level, after surpassing $1,740 yesterday, breaking away from its five-month low.

Spot gold rose to $1,950, hitting a four-week high after three consecutive days of gains. London copper, aluminum, and zinc are all hovering at three-week highs.

The decline in the US dollar and US bond yields has led to a two-day rise in gold prices. COMEX December gold futures closed up 0.40% at $1,973.00 per ounce. However, silver futures, which rose more than 2% yesterday, fell 0.1%.

Spot gold rose nearly $12 or 0.6%, approaching the $1,950 level, hitting the highest level in four weeks since August 2nd after three consecutive days of gains. Spot silver is still hovering at a one-month high after two months of consecutive gains, and platinum is not far from a six-week high.

London industrial metals are mixed. Dr. Copper, the economic barometer, rose 0.3% on Wednesday, while London aluminum rose 1.5% and broke through $2,200. London zinc, which rose 2.4% yesterday, fell slightly, all hovering at three-week highs. London lead, which rose 1.4% yesterday, also fell slightly, still close to a seven-month high. London nickel fell 0.3% again, while London tin rose slightly, still hovering at a one-week low.

In addition, domestic futures night trading generally closed higher, with glass up more than 6.6%, soda ash up more than 3%, iron ore, coking coal, and LPG up about 2%, coke up 1%, hot-rolled coil and rebar up 0.7%.