What signal does Powell's heavyweight speech convey? The whistleblowers of high inflation in the United States and the "old bond king" summarize the implicit meaning.

Regarding the speech by Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve on Friday, August 25th at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers believes that the Fed may need to raise interest rates at least once more.

Summers stated that the Fed may need to raise interest rates at least one more time and warned that the market has not paid enough attention to the impact of the U.S. fiscal deficit. He said:

My guess is that in the coming months, we may see the federal funds rate have to rise again, and perhaps even more.

Summers stated that the U.S. economy is not currently experiencing significant slowdown, and some estimates suggest that the growth rate for this quarter will exceed 5%.

Summers expressed appreciation for Chairman Powell's speech on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Powell stated that the Fed is prepared to continue raising interest rates as needed to ensure that inflation continues to fall to the policymakers' target of 2%. Summers believes that Powell's remarks indicate that the Fed is open to the possibility that the neutral interest rate (a level that neither stimulates nor restricts the economy) may be higher than in the past.

Although Powell did not explicitly acknowledge a higher neutral interest rate, Summers believes:

Given the extent to which rates have been pushed up, the pace of increase in the neutral rate is much faster than many people expected. I think this will further strengthen the market's perception that the Fed is restoring its credibility in fighting inflation.

Summers also stated that he would like to see Powell take more action to recognize the impact of the "troubled fiscal situation in the United States" on monetary policy:

The significant expansion of the government budget deficit means that the absorption of savings has increased significantly, as well as the boost in demand. All of this means that the neutral interest rate will rise—and it will rise now and in the future.

Summers is a whistleblower on high inflation in the United States and is one of the first well-known economists to predict that the country's inflation is not temporary. His views have received significant attention in the market.

In addition, "bond king" Bill Gross, when discussing Powell's speech on Friday, stated that he believes the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds could rise to 4.5% in the future, while short-term rates will remain relatively stable:

Higher rates and a longer duration of high rates are the undertones I received from Jackson Hole.

On Friday, Powell stated:

We are prepared to further raise interest rates as appropriate and intend to keep the policy rate at a level that is restrictive to economic growth until we are confident that inflation will continue to fall to achieve our target.

At the upcoming meeting, we will assess progress based on overall data as well as evolving outlooks and risks.

Based on this assessment, we will proceed cautiously and decide whether to further tighten monetary policy or keep rates unchanged and wait for further data.