US stocks and Chinese concept stocks rose more than 1%, with Nvidia rising 9% to a new high after hours, while European and American bond yields plummeted by double digits.

Wallstreetcn
2023.08.23 21:11
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European and American PMI in August was not good, causing the market to lower its bets on interest rate hikes by central banks in Europe, America, and the UK. The US stock market closed near its daily high, with the Dow Jones rising nearly 200 points. NVIDIA's data center revenue reached a record high of over $10 billion, while weak consumer demand led to a general decline in sports goods stocks. After the earnings report, Manbang Group's stock rose over 11%, while Zhihu's stock fell nearly 9%. Baidu's stock rose about 3% for two consecutive days. Yields on European and American government bonds fell by more than 10 basis points, and the US dollar initially rose to 104 before falling. The euro hit a two-month low, and the offshore renminbi rose above 7.29 yuan. Oil prices fell 2.5% to a one-month low during trading, and European natural gas prices fell by over 13%. Spot gold rose over 1% and approached $1920, while sugar futures rose over 2%.

US new home sales in July increased by 4.4% MoM to 714,000 households, reaching a one-year high. Developers continue to benefit from limited inventory of existing homes.

However, last week, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the US rose to 7.31%, reaching a new high since 2000. The purchase application index dropped to a new low since 1995, indicating weak housing demand due to high interest rates.

In August, the Markit Services PMI in the US dropped to 51, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47, and the Composite PMI dropped to 50.4, all reaching new lows since February this year. Weak consumer demand has led to almost no expansion in US business activity.

Among them, the initial value of the Composite Employment Index dropped to 50.2, the lowest since June 2020. Combined with the US Department of Labor's plan to revise non-farm employment down by 306,000 from March last year to March this year, the employment growth may not be as robust as expected, which has put downward pressure on the US dollar and US bond yields.

In the Eurozone, business activity has contracted for the third consecutive month in August, with the PMI reaching a 33-month low. The service sector, the economic pillar, has experienced its first "shutdown" this year, with Germany seeing the fastest contraction in business activity in over three years and a decline in consumer confidence. The risk of recession in the UK has also increased.

Traders have increased their bets on the European Central Bank's decision to pause rate hikes in September from 40% to 60%, and have lowered their expectations for the peak interest rate of the Bank of England. The market is paying attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium on Friday.

US stocks and Chinese concept stocks rise more than 1% except for the Dow Jones, which rises nearly 200 points. Nvidia's earnings report boosts its stock price by 9% to a new high after hours.

On Wednesday, August 23, US stocks opened high and continued to rise. Within the first hour of trading, the tech-heavy Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 both rose more than 1%. At midday, the S&P 500 and Russell small-cap stocks also rose more than 1% to daily highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 240 points.

US stocks collectively closed near daily highs. The Dow Jones broke away from its six-week low since July 11 and rose for the second consecutive trading day, but Nike, a constituent stock, fell for ten consecutive days, marking the longest losing streak in history. The S&P 500 reached a one-week high, having hit its lowest point in nearly two months on Friday. The Nasdaq rose for three consecutive days to its highest level since last Monday, having hit its lowest point since June 9 on Friday:

The S&P 500 rose 48.46 points, or 1.10%, to 4,436.01. The Dow Jones rose 184.15 points, or 0.54%, to 34,472.98. The Nasdaq rose 215.16 points, or 1.59%, to 13,721.03. The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.60%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index rose 1%.

In addition to the Dow, both US stocks and Chinese concept stocks rose by more than 1%, with the Dow rising nearly 200 points.

Tech stocks rise together. "Metaverse" Meta rose 2.3%, Amazon rose 1%, Tesla opened lower but turned up 1.6%, all reaching a new high in a week. Apple rose more than 2%, Microsoft rose more than 1%, Netflix rose more than 3%, all reaching the highest level in over two weeks. Google A rose 2.6% to a monthly high.

Chip stocks rise together. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 2%, breaking through 3600 points, with AMD and Intel rising more than 3%, both reaching a new high in over a week. Nvidia rose more than 3% before the earnings report, approaching the intraday high set yesterday, and closed near the historical high five weeks ago.

Nvidia's second-quarter revenue was $13.5 billion, far exceeding analysts' expectations of $11 billion. Data center revenue exceeded $10 billion, reaching a new high, and approved an additional $25 billion stock repurchase. After hours, it rose nearly 9% and the stock price broke through $500 to reach a new high.

Nvidia rose nearly 9% after hours, and the stock price broke through $500 to reach a new high.

AI concept stocks also rebounded across the board. C3.ai and Palantir Technologies rose 4%, further away from the three-month low, and SoundHound.ai, which rose more than 3%, all reached a new high in over a week. BigBear.ai rose nearly 4% to get out of the seven-month low.

On the news front, it was reported that Tesla's German factory lowered its production target in July and August and plans to further reduce it. Nvidia's H100 chip shipments will increase at least twice next year, up to 2 million chips, and the stock has risen nearly 220% this year.

Popular Chinese concept stocks followed the rise of the US stock market. ETF KWEB rose 2%, CQQQ rose 0.7%, Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose 1.5%, recovering most of the decline since last Thursday, and hitting a six-week low since July 6th last Friday.

Among the Nasdaq 100 constituents, JD.com rose 1.6%, Baidu rose more than 3%, and Pinduoduo rose 0.6%. Among other individual stocks, Alibaba rose 2%, Tencent ADR rose more than 1%, Bilibili rose nearly 2%, NIO rose 0.5%, Li Auto fell 0.5%, and XPeng rose 0.8%.

On the news front, Manbang rose more than 11% to a two-and-a-half-week high, with second-quarter revenue of 2.06 billion yuan, the highest single quarter since its listing. Zhihu fell nearly 9% to a three-month low, with second-quarter revenue of 1.04 billion yuan and a net loss of 220 million yuan after adjustment. Banking stocks rise more than 1% after a seven-day decline. The industry benchmark, the KBW Bank Index (BKX), rebounded from an eight-week low and reached its lowest level since October 2020 on May 4th. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) rebounded from its lowest level in over five weeks and reached its lowest level since November 2020 on May 11th. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rebounded from its lowest level in over five weeks and reached its lowest level since October 2020 on May 4th.

The "Big Four" banks in the United States all rose, with Bank of America and Wells Fargo turning positive in the final trading session. JPMorgan Chase, which fell 5% yesterday, rose nearly 3%, ending an eleven-day decline and rebounding from a seven-week low. Regional banks also saw a collective rise, with PacWest Bancorp and Zions Bancorporation rising by about 2%, and Keycorp and Western Alliance Bancorp rising by about 3%.

Other stocks with significant changes include:

Cloud computing infrastructure provider Snowflake, in which Warren Buffett participated in the IPO, reported second-quarter revenue that exceeded expectations. The company maintained its full-year product revenue and operating profit margin unchanged. After trading hours, the stock initially rose but later fell by more than 2%.

Apart from Nike, sports equipment stocks in the U.S. generally experienced a significant decline. Foot Locker, a sports shoe retailer, fell more than 28% due to a 10% decline in second-quarter revenue. The company also lowered its full-year guidance for the second time and suspended quarterly dividends, warning of weak demand.

Foot Locker experienced its largest decline and reached its lowest level since 2010.

"Pandemic beneficiaries" such as Peloton Interactive, a cloud fitness equipment and interactive platform, fell more than 22% to reach new intraday and closing lows. The company reported a larger-than-expected loss in the second quarter and provided a weak revenue guidance for the next quarter.

Abercrombie & Fitch, a lifestyle apparel retailer, rose more than 23% to its highest level in a decade. The company's second-quarter gross margin, EPS, and revenue all exceeded expectations. It also reiterated the strong momentum of its beauty chain store, Sephora, and its stock price has doubled this year.

European stocks rose across the board, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index closing up 0.39%. The utilities sector led the gains, rising 1%, while the oil and gas sector fell 1%. After disappointing PMI data, automotive stocks declined by 0.5%. The UK stock index and the Russian MOEX index both rose by approximately 0.7%.

US and European Bond Yields Fall More Than 10 Basis Points, Long-term Yields Lead the Decline, 2-Year US Treasury Yield Falls Below 5%

Poor US and European PMI data weakened market expectations of monetary tightening by major central banks, causing bond yields in the US and Europe to plummet by double digits.

Afternoon trading saw the winning bid rate for the 20-year US Treasury auction at 4.499%, reaching a new high since May 2020. The yield on US long-term bonds continued to decline, reaching a daily low.

The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, experienced the deepest drop of 10 basis points and fell below the 5% mark, essentially erasing the gains made earlier this week and deviating from the near seven-week high reached on July 6.

The 10-year benchmark bond yield fell by nearly 15 basis points and dropped below 4.20%, deviating from the near 16-year high reached on Tuesday at 4.36%, which was the highest since the end of 2007. The 30-year long-term bond yield fell by nearly 16 basis points.

US and European bond yields fall more than 10 basis points, 2-year US Treasury yield falls below 5%.

The 10-year German bond yield, the benchmark for the eurozone, fell by more than 12 basis points to 2.52% at the close, reaching a two-week low since August 10. Last week, it approached 2.73%, close to the twelve-year high of 2.77% reached in early March. The 2-year yield fell by 10 basis points and dropped below 3%.

The 10-year Italian bond yield, which carries a heavier debt burden compared to peripheral countries, fell by more than 13 basis points to 4.20%. The bond yields of France, Spain, and Greece all fell by more than 10 basis points. The 2-year and 10-year UK bond yields both fell by approximately 17 basis points, marking the largest decline in five months.

However, some analysts also suggest that eurozone and UK inflation data may force the European and UK central banks to raise interest rates again in September.

Oil Prices Fall the Deepest by $2 or 2.5%, Marking a Three-Day Decline to a One-Month Low, European Natural Gas Futures Fall by More Than 13%

Poor US and European manufacturing PMI ignited concerns about demand, leading to a three-day decline in oil prices. WTI October crude oil futures closed down $0.75, a decrease of 0.94%, at $78.89 per barrel. Brent October futures closed down $0.82, a decrease of 0.98%, at $83.21 per barrel.

US WTI crude oil experienced the deepest drop of $2 or 2.5%, briefly falling below $78, while Brent crude oil experienced the deepest drop of $2 or 2.5%, briefly falling below $82. Both reached a one-month low since July 24. Gasoline prices fell below the 50-day moving average for the first time in seven weeks and reached a three-week low.

Oil prices fall by $2 or 2.5%, reaching a one-month low.

US EIA crude oil inventories fell by more than 6.1 million barrels last week, a decrease of nearly 6 million barrels compared to the previous period. Inventories in the delivery area of the Longbridge region plummeted by over 3 million barrels, marking the largest decline since October 2021. However, gasoline inventories increased by nearly 1.5 million barrels, with a decrease of 260,000 barrels compared to the previous period.

The TTF Dutch natural gas futures, a benchmark in Europe, fell by more than 14% at the end of the session, dropping below the 40 euro/megawatt-hour mark. ICE UK natural gas also fell by over 13%, falling below the 100 pence/calorie mark, both reaching the lowest level in two months since June 15.

The US dollar initially rose to 104 before turning downward, still hovering at the highest level in over two months. The euro hit a two-month low, and the offshore renminbi rose above 7.29 yuan.

The US dollar index, which measures against six major currencies, briefly approached the 104 level, reaching the highest level in over two months since June 8. US stocks turned downward during the session due to poor PMI data, trading at 103.40, ending a two-month consecutive rise in August with a 2% increase.

The US dollar initially rose to 104 before turning downward, still hovering at the highest level in over two months.

Weak business activity data pushed the euro against the US dollar to briefly fall below 1.08, reaching the lowest level in two months since June 14. The British pound also fell below the 1.27 level against the US dollar, reaching the lowest level in over a week since August 14.

With the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rising to a nine-and-a-half-year high of 0.675%, the yen rose above the 145 level against the US dollar, erasing all the losses since August 11. It had previously hit a nine-month low of 146.565 last Thursday, and the market is paying attention to signs of intervention in the country's foreign exchange market.

The offshore renminbi rose above 7.29 yuan against the US dollar, rising more than 230 points from the previous day's closing, approaching the one-week high set on Monday when it rose above 7.28 yuan. Analysts said that the renminbi's exchange rate against the US dollar has fallen by more than 5% this year, and it fell below 7.35 yuan last week, reaching the lowest level in over nine months.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies have declined for two consecutive days. The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, rose by more than 2% and surpassed the $26,000 mark, breaking away from the two-month low. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, rose by 3% and approached the $1,690 mark, breaking away from the five-month low. Both experienced a decline of about 10% last week.

Bitcoin rose by more than 2% and surpassed $26,000, breaking away from the two-month low.

Spot gold rose by more than 1% and approached $1,920, reaching a two-week high. Copper prices rose for two consecutive days by 1%, and sugar futures rose by more than 2%. The decline in the US dollar and US bond yields is beneficial for the gold price. COMEX December gold futures rose 1.15% to $1948.10 per ounce. COMEX October silver futures rose 4.00% to $24.495 per ounce.

Spot gold rose more than $20 or more than 1%, breaking through the psychological level of $1900 and approaching $1920, reaching a two-week high after three consecutive days of gains. Last week, it fell to a five-month low of $1883.70. Spot silver rose 4%.

Spot gold rose more than 1%, approaching $1920, a two-week high.

London industrial metals have risen for three consecutive days. The "Copper Doctor" indicator, a barometer of the economy, has risen 1% for two consecutive days, breaking through $8400 to a two-week high, rising for five consecutive days from the two-and-a-half-month low set last week. London aluminum rose slightly, and London zinc rose 1.7% to a nearly two-week high. London nickel, which rose nearly 2% yesterday, rose more than 2% again, approaching $21,000, a two-and-a-half-week high. London tin further moved away from the three-month low.

Most domestic futures night markets closed higher, with sugar and iron ore rising more than 1%, coking coal rising 0.9%, and fuel oil falling nearly 3.7%; during Wednesday's day session, iron ore rose 5% to a two-year high, coking coal rose 4%, and coke rose more than 2%.

Due to insufficient rainfall leading to a reduction in sugarcane production, India plans to ban sugar exports for the first time in seven years, causing international sugar prices to rise. ICE raw sugar and white sugar futures both rose more than 2%. Analysts believe that sugar prices are already at multi-year highs, which will raise concerns about further inflation in the global food market.