BUZZ-View of the week-Jackson Hole could halt US yield rise, and also threaten the dollar
(Repeats with no changes)
(Repeats with no changes)
Aug 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield continued its ascent over the last week and now trades around huge levels, having closed in on its cycle highs at 4.338%, as shown in the chart below. By extension the move in U.S. yields has underpinned the greenback, which is now on course for a fifth consecutive weekly increase.
But the dollar-positive trend in yields faces a key risk as investors turn their focus to the Jackson Hole Symposium next week, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on Aug. 25.
After another encouraging inflation report that gives a nod to the disinflation narrative, there may be reduced the pressure for Powell to maintain a hawkish stance, which could pave the way for a pullback in U.S. yields.
Both Powell and New York Fed President John Williams have not ruled out the possibility of rate cuts in 2024, the latter also keeping the door open towards a rate cut early next year.
In turn, this suggests that the selloff in U.S. Treasuries looks somewhat exhausted, supporting the case to be less bullish in the greenback at current levels.
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US 10yr yield
(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)