AI skepticism spreads! Bing fails to defeat Alphabet-C, the success or failure of Office AI version attracts attention

In February, Microsoft launched the ChatGPT version of its Bing search engine. At the time, Microsoft said that if the new version of Bing could take even a little bit of market share away from Google, its revenue could increase by $2 billion. Now that six months have passed, even 1 percentage point may be an unattainable goal. On Thursday, local time, the Wall Street Journal quoted data from an analysis company as saying that **Bing had a 3% share of the search market in January and still had a 3% share in July. In July, Bing's monthly user count was just 1% of Google's, roughly the same as in January. **The performance of the new Bing once again proves the point of the AI skeptics. ## AI skepticism spreads! Experts: AI may never bring income Since ChatGPT subverted the world of artificial intelligence, global technology giants such as Microsoft and Alphabet have accelerated the pace of investment in artificial intelligence and redesigned the entire business around artificial intelligence. They regard artificial intelligence as a new fire for revenue expansion and a new engine for profit growth. Venture capital investors have also been transfusing blood to the artificial intelligence industry, and they have never deliberately exaggerated. The 50 most promising generative AI startups identified by intelligence website CB Insights have raised more than $19 billion in funding since 2019. Of these, 11 are now considered unicorns valued at more than $1 billion. Even McKinsey, which has always been a calm advocate, estimates that in the 63 use cases it analyzed, artificial intelligence can increase the economic value of 2.6-4.4 trillion US dollars per year, which is equivalent to creating a UK (GDP of 3.1 trillion US dollars in 2021). But, what if they're wrong? What if generative AI turns out to be just a" dud "? As AI skepticism continues to spread, technology expert Gary Marcus said in an article published last week that as investors realize that generative AI works poorly and lacks "killer" business applications, we may see the possibility of "large-scale and painful adjustments" in valuations.> **[AI] hasn't been able to generate revenue yet, and probably never will. **Marcus, co-founder of the Center for the Advancement of Trustworthy AI, who testified before Congress this year, has long been skeptical of the intelligence of neural network models that chatbots such as ChatGPT are based on. Taking the unreliability of the model itself as an example, one of the fatal flaws of artificial intelligence technology is that it creates illusion and serious nonsense. The bigger concern is that the content generated by generative AI is contaminating the data sets that future systems are trained on, threatening what some call "model collapse". Generative AI adds more imperfect information and deliberately false information to the knowledge base, making the Internet further "enshittification" (garbage), which means that the trained AI will output more nonsense. **## Bing Disappointing, Office AI Success or Failure Concerned The Wall Street Journal attributed artificial intelligence's failure to help Microsoft compete for search engine market share-according to third-party assessments-to the fact that people have become accustomed to using the dominant Google. It also notes that the idea of using a chat interface for search is still something new to many people. Daniel Tunkelang, a search consultant who has worked at Google and LinkedIn (now Microsoft), says the chat interface is still an unusual way for people to find information online. He said that **the new Bing is" cute, but not a game changer ". Microsoft disputed the data, saying third-party researchers did not count all visits to Bing's chat page, the report said. Yusuf Mehdi, chief marketing officer for Microsoft consumer products, told the Wall Street Journal that Microsoft own data shows Bing is gaining market share. "We have made more progress in the last six months than in the last one or two years combined," Mehdi said. "We are happy with our start." It is worth noting that search has never been a Microsoft's main business. The new version of Bing has not changed the trend of its advertising sales. Microsoft's advertising business, which accounts for less than 6% of total revenue and is mainly from Bing, grew 3% in the most recent quarter compared to last year, unchanged from the previous quarter, but at a slower rate than before the launch of Bing. Before AI proves to be a powerful weapon to expand revenue and increase profits, embed generative AI into more products and services, or create greater risks. Microsoft have embedded generative AI in Office software, including Word, Outlook, and Excel. [Microsoft also plans to charge users of the new Microsoft 365 Copilot cloud office software $30 per month.] (https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3693540?keyword=office) According to Bernstein analyst Mark Moerdler in a research report, the price of * * 365 Copilot was higher than he expected, equivalent to a price increase of 53% to 240%. Are users willing to pay for such expensive pricing? Productivity and business processes (including Office, LinkedIn and Dynamics) revenue of $18.3 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023 (the second quarter of the 2023 natural year), up 10% year-over-year; CFO Hood said that "Copilot are not ready for a full release, the product may not really generate revenue until the second half of fiscal year 24". ## Adobe: There's no denying that having" killer "software in hand is crucial for an AI company. On Thursday, local time, financial celebrity Jim Cramer (Jim Cramer) said on a CNBC show that computer software giant Adobe currently has the best artificial intelligence products among software companies. "I think they're the best," Kramer said on "Squawk on the Street. Adobe launched an AI image generation tool-Firefly (Firefly) in March this year. Its function is similar to other AIGC (Generating Artificial Intelligence) tools. Enter text prompt and generate pictures. The training source is mainly some Adobe's own gallery and public domain, so it can be safely used commercially.! Since its launch, Firefly has been updated many times and will soon be connected to Bard, Google's AI chat robot. Adobe also opened the paid TOB version of Firefly in early June. Cramer said he believes the Firefly launch was successful, putting Adobe in a strong position in the new wave of AI. "This firefly is amazing," Kramer said. Kramer's comments came after Bank of America raised Adobe's rating to buy from neutral and adjusted its target price to $630 per share, up about 22.5 percent from Adobe's stock's closing price of $514.49 per share on Wednesday.!