Is the US economy approaching a "soft landing"? The bearish voices of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are gradually fading.

According to Zhitong Finance APP, due to the decline in inflation data, Marko Kolanovic, Chief Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Chase, has softened his view on the possibility of a recession in the United States. Kolanovic had previously warned investors to stay away from the stock market as economic risks approached. He stated that the slight increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June has slightly increased the possibility of the Federal Reserve achieving a "soft landing" - that is, curbing inflation without causing an economic recession.

In a report to clients on Monday, he wrote, "Although we still expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the July meeting, the unexpected decline in CPI means that the narrow path to a soft landing will be slightly widened."

During most of the market sell-off in 2022, Kolanovic was one of Wall Street's biggest optimists, but due to deteriorating economic prospects, he reduced JPMorgan Chase's model stock allocation in mid-December last year, January, March, and May this year.

At the same time, investors have generally lowered their expectations of a US economic recession. Chris Montagu, a strategist at Citigroup, pointed out that fund flow data seems to indicate that traders are betting on a soft landing for the US economy, and after a series of positive economic data releases, they increased their bullish bets on the S&P 500 index last week.

Although Kolanovic stated that his firm is downplaying the risk of an economic recession in the near term, JPMorgan Chase still doubts whether inflation can continue to return to the central bank's comfort zone without an economic downturn. At the same time, he said that if the inflation rate drops to 2.5% and interest rates start to decline, there may be "considerable upside potential" for US small and mid-cap stocks.

In addition, Kolanovic warned that European stock markets will face further risks in the second half of the year, including tighter monetary policy, lower bond yields, and potentially disappointing financial reports, and their performance will be inferior to that of the US stock market.

" This time the inversion is different!" Goldman Sachs lowers the probability of a US economic recession

JPMorgan Chase's view coincides with that of Goldman Sachs. Although the significant inversion of the US Treasury yield curve has raised concerns about the prospect of an economic recession, Goldman Sachs also further lowered the probability of a US economic recession from 25% to 20% after last week's lower-than-expected inflation report. Jan Hatzius, the bank's chief economist, wrote in a report on Monday, "We do not share the widespread concern about the inverted yield curve."

Hatzius disagrees with the views of most forecasters who point out that the inverted curve has an almost impeccable record in predicting economic recessions. Prior to the past seven recessions in the United States, the 3-month US Treasury yield was higher than the 10-year US Treasury yield each time. Currently, the 3-year US bond yield is 150 basis points higher than the 10-year US bond yield, approaching the deepest inversion level in 40 years.

Usually, the yield curve is upward sloping because investors demand higher risk compensation or term premium for holding long-term bonds compared to short-term bonds. Hatzius explained that when the yield curve inverts, it means that investors are digesting expectations of rate cuts large enough to outweigh the term premium, and this phenomenon only occurs when the risk of recession becomes "clearly visible".

However, the economist said that this time is different. This is because the term premium is "far below" its long-term average level, so it only takes fewer expected rate cuts to invert the curve. In addition, according to Hatzius, as inflation cools down, it provides a "reasonable path" for the Fed to lower rates without triggering an economic recession.

Hatzius added that when economic forecasts become overly pessimistic, their downward pressure on long-term interest rates can exceed reasonable levels. He wrote, "Therefore, the view that an inverted yield curve confirms widespread predictions of an economic recession can at least be described as circular reasoning."