Finally, the first Tesla vehicle rolls off the production line. Is it an "ugly toy" or a "cost-cutting killer for gasoline-powered vehicles"?

"Ghosted" for so long, Tesla finally welcomes the electric pickup.

On July 15th, Tesla announced on Twitter that the first Tesla has been manufactured at the Texas Gigafactory.

Due to its heavy reliance on Tesla and Tesla's boost in sales, Tesla is seen as the key to Tesla's future growth. Tesla's latest official comment on the timeline is that deliveries are planned for "around the end of the third quarter," which is the end of September 2023.

Tesla has postponed multiple times, so if we go by the release date, Tesla has already become a three-and-a-half-year-old "old car," and its launch can be said to be the most anticipated model of Tesla this year.

Recently, Tesla CEO Tesla also provided a production forecast for Tesla at the Tesla Annual Shareholders Meeting. He believes that they can produce about 250,000 vehicles per year, but he later added that it could be between 250,000 and 500,000 units.

Wall Street News previously mentioned, according to Electrek, Tesla plans to produce 375,000 Teslas per year, a number that far exceeds Wall Street's expectations. Analysts previously estimated production to be less than 100,000 units in 2024 and around 240,000 units by 2027.

It's worth noting that pickups account for 20% of the U.S. automotive market. If Tesla's Tesla is priced similarly to the pickups currently on the market, then Tesla is likely to become an opportunity for Tesla to "invade" the pickup market.

Gary Black, a well-known Tesla bull and co-founder and managing partner of Future Fund, tweeted earlier this month, predicting that with the boost from Tesla, Tesla's sales in 2024 will increase significantly by 53% and impact domestic gasoline vehicles in the United States, which will further stimulate Tesla's stock price.

According to the latest data, Tesla has accumulated nearly 1.94 million valid reservations, specifically 1,939,676 vehicles.

So is Tesla's Tesla an "ugly toy" or a "cost-cutting oil vehicle killer"?

What does the "ugly toy" look like?

First, let's take a look at what this Tesla, known as the "ugly toy" in the market, looks like.

Just recently, Tesla's chief designer, Franz von Holzhausen, took his children to an automotive museum in the United States and "showed off" his Tesla, allowing many passersby to experience some of its detailed designs up close. According to the leaked photos from the scene, the interior design of this production-ready Tesla has undergone significant changes compared to the concept car.

From the Tesla seen at the scene, the new car's steering wheel will be a combination of a Yoke steering wheel and a traditional steering wheel. It will have a similar size to the Yoke steering wheel, but with a closed design on the upper part of the steering wheel.

In addition, in the initial design drawings, Tesla adopted a front row three-seat design similar to the current large pickups on the market, with a foldable middle seat, reflecting the attributes of a pickup truck.

The smaller size of the car also allows Tesla to drive into the underground tunnels envisioned by Tesla (The Boring Company). Tesla is also equipped with rear-wheel steering technology, becoming the first model in Tesla's lineup to have this feature. Rear-wheel steering will also make it easier for Tesla to maneuver in narrow city roads.

In addition to bringing design updates closer to the production version, media reports have stated that Tesla recently sent a Tesla to New Zealand for testing in Wanaka, South Island. Perhaps this will also be the final round of winter testing before Tesla goes into production.

Conducting the final round of winter testing may also mean that Tesla is not far from mass production. In June 2017, there were reports that Tesla sent a Tesla to New Zealand for snow testing during the winter. On July 28 of the following year, Tesla began deliveries.

"Ugly" is for pursuing cost limits

"Tesla is a very difficult car to manufacture, and traditional manufacturing methods alone cannot be used." Tesla admitted at the shareholders' meeting that Tesla manufacturing is very challenging and that a completely new technology must be invented to manufacture exoskeleton cars instead of endoskeleton cars. "Fortunately, we have made good progress in this regard."

"Exoskeleton" refers to an integrated body structure, where the entire vehicle's structure is fused together. This is also done to pursue cost limits.

Integrated body design is not common, as most vehicles follow a body-on-frame architecture, which means that the car's body is mounted on a chassis. Integrated body design combines the chassis and body together, providing greater strength and lightweight characteristics. For electric vehicles, a lightweight design means that each unit of battery capacity can provide a longer driving range. At the same time, analysts believe that Tesla's advancements in weight, strength, and efficiency will undoubtedly drive industry innovation. Additionally, Tesla supports one-megawatt DC fast charging, which means it can charge at an astonishing speed, providing hundreds of miles of range in just a few minutes.

Some may think its appearance resembles a prop from a typical sci-fi movie. However, Gary Black believes that this design is feasible and sees it as Tesla's unique "calling card," making Tesla truly one-of-a-kind.

Can Cybertruck pose a threat to domestic gasoline vehicles in the United States?

The Wall Street Journal previously analyzed that Tesla's repeated price reductions have had no impact on the entire gasoline vehicle sector. Data provider J.D. Power's June data, including both gasoline and electric vehicles, showed that the average selling price of cars reached $46,000 in June, the same as the previous year, despite tighter supply last year.

The fact that Tesla's price war has not spread to gasoline vehicles and its relatively low market share in the United States are related. In 2022, new energy vehicle sales accounted for only 7% of total sales. For Tesla, defeating domestic gasoline vehicles in the United States may be its ultimate goal.

The market is eagerly anticipating Tesla's emergence as a potential threat to domestic gasoline vehicles in the United States.

Black believes that since pickups account for 20% of the U.S. automotive market, Tesla will expand its Total Addressable Market (TAM). Tesla's sales in 2024 are expected to increase by a significant 53%, which will further stimulate Tesla's stock price. Black stated:

Those who short Tesla really don't understand how important Tesla's overall business growth will be in 2024. Tesla's TAM will significantly expand with the introduction of Tesla. The surprising sales of Tesla models in 2021 led to a 743% surge in Tesla's stock price in 2020 (while the Nasdaq rose 50%). Similarly, the halo effect of Tesla's sales will accelerate overall sales growth by over 50% in 2024.

ARK Invest, known for betting on "disruptive innovation," believes that those who are bearish on Tesla are missing a crucial point: if Tesla disrupts the profit centers of traditional automakers, they may find themselves in a predicament. The report explains:

Based on our research, the global market share of electric vehicles could expand to over 70% by 2027, and the United States will not lag behind. In addition to the 1.5 million existing Tesla reservations, early Google Trends data suggests that Tesla may become as mainstream as Tesla.