EIA Monthly Outlook: US oil production expected to increase slightly by the end of next year, bullish on future oil prices

On Tuesday, July 11th, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest monthly forecast.

According to the EIA, the crude oil production in the United States this year is projected to be 12.56 million barrels per day, a slight decrease from the previous monthly forecast of 12.61 million barrels per day. However, next year, the U.S. crude oil production is expected to reach 12.85 million barrels per day, a slight increase compared to the previous month's forecast of 12.77 million barrels per day.

As a result, the U.S. crude oil production is expected to grow by 290,000 barrels per day next year, compared to the previous expectation of a growth of 160,000 barrels per day.

The EIA's monthly forecast also indicates that the U.S. petroleum consumption this year is approximately 20.8 million barrels per day, which is expected to slightly decrease to 20.7 million barrels per day next year. The global petroleum consumption this year is projected to be 102.8 million barrels per day, which will slightly decrease to 102.71 million barrels per day next year, but it is a slight increase compared to the previous month's forecast of 102.57 million barrels per day. The EIA also predicts that the global oil production next year will be 102.69 million barrels per day.

The EIA forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will reach $79 this year, rise to $80 in the fourth quarter, and increase to $84 next year. The main driving factor behind the global oil price increase, according to the EIA, is the reduction in crude oil inventories. Recently, the Brent crude oil price has slightly risen to around $80, which means that the EIA believes that there will not be significant fluctuations in international oil prices for the rest of this year.

On Tuesday, July 11th, as the WTI crude oil price broke through its key 100-day moving average, energy producers led the gains in the U.S. stock market, just before the release of U.S. CPI data.

Furthermore, from a global perspective, there are signs that Russian crude oil production is declining and oil prices are rising, indicating that the market oversupply may soon come to an end.

The EIA predicts that the U.S. retail gasoline price will be $3.4 per gallon this year, and it will slightly decrease to $3.34 per gallon next year. Both figures represent a significant decrease compared to $3.97 per gallon in 2022.

In other energy aspects, the EIA forecasts that the U.S. liquefied natural gas exports will be 12.0 billion cubic feet per day this year, and it will further increase to 13.3 billion cubic feet per day next year.

According to the EIA's forecast, there will also be some changes in the U.S. power generation mix in the next two years: natural gas will continue to dominate, accounting for 41% this year and 40% next year; coal-fired power generation will decrease from 20% last year to 16% this year, and further decrease to 15% next year; the share of renewable energy generation will increase from 22% last year to 23% this year, and is expected to rise to 20% next year; nuclear power will remain relatively stable, accounting for 19% this year, the same as last year, and slightly increase to 20% next year.