ChatGPT app downloads slowed down, with negative growth in traffic. Bing's market share declined. Did AI fail to challenge search engines?

As the first move to challenge Alphabet-C, Microsoft's collaboration with OpenAI in the search business has recently shown signs of weakness, which could be seen as a disadvantageous signal for Microsoft, who is fully committed to AI.

On Wednesday, Bank of America analyst Justin Post pointed out in a report that in recent weeks, the download volume of OpenAI and Bing has started to slow down.

By citing data from website analytics tool SimilarWeb, the analyst pointed out that in June, the download volume of OpenAI on iOS in the United States decreased by 38% MoM, and the download volume of Bing also decreased by 38%.

At the same time, Alphabet-C's search engine market share continues to rise, currently exceeding 92%. In contrast, Bing's market share has declined by 0.4% YoY, to around 2.8%.

In addition to the decline in download volume, OpenAI is also losing traffic.

Earlier, Wallstreetcn reported that SimilarWeb data showed a significant slowdown in OpenAI's growth in June.

In June of this year, OpenAI's global website and mobile client traffic (PV) decreased by 9.7% MoM, and traffic in the United States decreased by 10.3% MoM. At the same time, the number of unique visitors (UV) to OpenAI decreased by 5.7%, and the time visitors spent on the website also decreased by 8.5%.

It's not just OpenAI. According to data compiled by AceCamp, almost all AI chatbots have experienced stagnant or declining user numbers.

Has Microsoft's "challenge" failed?

For Microsoft, who is trying to challenge Alphabet-C in the search business with the help of AI, the slowdown in growth may lead to disappointment in its ambitions.

When Microsoft launched the new Bing embedded with OpenAI, the download volume of Bing surged, which led the market to believe that this technological achievement meant a challenge to Alphabet-C, and also prompted Alphabet-C to accelerate the introduction of a new AI search engine. keyword=%E5%BF%85%E5%BA%94)。

Microsoft CFO Amy Hood once told analysts that gaining one percentage point of market share in the search market is worth $2 billion, which means that if Microsoft gradually approaches Alphabet-C, it can earn billions of dollars in revenue.

However, this momentum does not seem to be as strong as Microsoft expected.

Analysts believe that the slowdown in OpenAI and similar large models indicates that this technology may not pose a serious threat to Alphabet-C's dominant position in the search field. On the contrary, companies like Microsoft that invest heavily in large model search may face risks.

Post wrote in the report:

The threat of artificial intelligence to Alphabet-C's search has shifted from market share to profitability, but because search share seems healthy, the urgency for Alphabet-C to integrate large models into search may decrease.

Will Google Bard Rise?

One analysis suggests that the slowdown in OpenAI's growth may be related to the launch of Alphabet-C's Bard.

Although Alphabet-C initially fell behind in the "AI search war" due to the hasty launch of Bard, the gap between the two is narrowing with the official launch of Bard.

According to the technology media Digital Information World, the number of visits to Alphabet-C's Bard last month reached 142 million, an increase of nearly 50 million from the previous month.

Although this number cannot be compared with OpenAI's staggering 1.8 billion visits, if Bard continues to develop with the help of Alphabet-C's stable search share, its growth may accelerate.

At the same time, OpenAI's growth has stagnated, which may be an opportunity for Bard.

OpenAI is not worried

However, the slowdown in data may not be a concern for OpenAI. On the contrary, this may be the situation it expects.

As early as the AI Congressional hearing held on May 16, Altman expressed concerns about the bottleneck of computing power: It would be better if fewer people use OpenAI due to the bottleneck of computing power. Currently, OpenAI has not disclosed the cost of operating OpenAI. CEO Sam Altman has described the cost of operating these services as "astonishing," and it is estimated that the daily cost is close to $700,000.

In addition, according to leaked meeting minutes from early June, Altman believes that OpenAI's mission is to attract more businesses to access its API in order to generate profits on the B-side, rather than capturing customer traffic on the C-side.

He stated that many people hope to have their applications integrated with OpenAI, but what they truly desire is to be able to use OpenAI within their own applications.

Altman emphasized that OpenAI will avoid competing with their customers. Their goal is to develop OpenAI into a super-intelligent work assistant:

Many developers express concerns that when they use OpenAI's API to build products, OpenAI might eventually release competing products. However, OpenAI will not release any products that surpass OpenAI in the future.

Looking at history, every great platform company has a "killer app." OpenAI's role is to assist customers in making their products better. OpenAI's vision is to become a super-intelligent work assistant, but there will also be many other use cases that OpenAI will not touch upon.