TM ADR US sets new goals for solid-state batteries: "halving" in size, weight, and cost!

Toyota, the "latecomer" in electrification, has shown signs of catching up by announcing a major breakthrough in solid-state battery technology, which will halve the cost and size.

On July 4th, the Financial Times reported that Toyota, after achieving a breakthrough in solid-state battery technology, expressed its determination to halve the size, cost, and weight of batteries. Last month, Toyota planned to start producing solid-state batteries for electric vehicles in 2027. If Toyota achieves this goal, it could become a milestone in the development of electric vehicles.

Toyota claims to have made "technological breakthroughs" and "material solutions" to solve the durability issues of batteries. This will enable electric vehicles powered by solid-state batteries to have a range of 1200 kilometers and reduce charging time to 10 minutes.

Toyota battery expert Keiji Kaita stated that simplifying the production process of battery materials will reduce the cost of next-generation technology and "completely change the current state of batteries." They have enough confidence to mass-produce solid-state batteries for electric vehicles in 2027 or 2028:

For Toyota's liquid and solid-state batteries, our goal is to completely change the current situation of batteries being too large, too heavy, and too expensive. In terms of potential, we aim to halve all these factors.

By reducing the number of processes required to manufacture battery materials, the cost of solid-state batteries can be reduced to be similar to or even cheaper than lithium-ion batteries.

Previously, Toyota expressed its hope to start selling hybrid vehicles equipped with solid-state batteries before 2025.

David Bailey, an economics professor at the University of Birmingham, believes that if Toyota's claims are true, it could be a milestone moment for the future of electric vehicles:

Usually, there are breakthroughs during the prototype stage, but it is difficult to scale up production. If this is a true breakthrough, it could be a disruptive change, even the holy grail of the electric vehicle industry.

On June 16th, Toyota held a technology briefing with the theme of "Changing the Future of Cars." The first model of Toyota's next-generation Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) products, developed by the BEV Factory, is planned to be launched in 2026. The next-generation BEV products will undergo comprehensive innovations in batteries, platforms, and manufacturing methods, with a range of up to 1000 kilometers.

In addition to performance and range improvements, Toyota's next-generation BEV will also achieve a 50% reduction in investment and processes.

Solid-state batteries are considered the "ultimate technology" for lithium batteries. Toyota is developing a method for mass-producing solid-state batteries for electric vehicles. The range of these solid-state batteries will be 20% higher than that of first-generation high-performance batteries, increasing from 1000 kilometers to 1200 kilometers.

At the same time, these batteries can be fast-charged from 10% to 80% in just 10 minutes. In comparison, Tesla's largest-scale Supercharger network currently provides a charging capacity equivalent to 321 kilometers of range in 15 minutes.

The market was boosted by this, and Toyota's stock price reached its best weekly performance in about seven years in June. As of the time of writing, Toyota's stock price has risen by 1.35%, and so far this year, it has risen by nearly 30%.

The Difficulty of Mass-Producing Solid-State Batteries

Toyota has always been hesitant in promoting new technologies, to the point where shareholders believe that the company has fallen far behind its competitors in the field of new energy. It is surprising that Toyota, known for its caution, has announced a major breakthrough in solid-state battery technology, with costs and size expected to be halved. This has brought a glimmer of hope to the automotive industry.

Supporters generally believe that Toyota must have made a breakthrough in technology to be so confident, but because they have not disclosed many technical details, it seems that they can only convince themselves by saying "Toyota is reliable."

Opponents believe that Toyota faces three major challenges in mass-producing solid-state batteries: stable battery formulation, mature manufacturing processes, and low production costs.

The core technology of the battery lies in its formulation, which determines the energy density, cycle life, safety performance, and so on. Changing the battery formulation is the beginning of battery technology innovation and also the most difficult hurdle. In 2021, Toyota publicly responded that they were still working to solve the problem of short lifespan in solid-state batteries.

In addition to the battery formulation, the manufacturing process also poses challenges and raises the threshold for mass-producing solid-state batteries.

The production process of sulfide systems generally uses three methods: coating method, dry binder method, and electrostatic powder spraying method. Toyota initially used the least common electrostatic powder spraying method, and the maturity of the production process is still debatable.

Therefore, even if the problem of battery formulation is solved, it is not easy to control the yield and consistency of battery production. Tesla's 4680 battery serves as a warning.

In addition, cost reduction is also a headache. Mass production of solid-state batteries requires a material production line with a capacity of thousands of tons and a production capacity of GWh level in order to spread the cost through economies of scale.

Can Toyota's electrification transformation surpass others and completely change the rules of the game in the field of electric vehicles?