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Despite the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve, the AI wave is still driving the US stock market up.

On Wednesday, US Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve paused its rate hike as expected but continued to be hawkish, suggesting that it would raise interest rates twice more. However, due to the surge in technology-related stocks, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices continued to rise for the fifth consecutive trading day, the longest continuous rise since November 2021.

The Federal Reserve raised its year-end benchmark interest rate forecast to 5.6% in this quarter's forecast, up from a median forecast of 5.1% in the previous forecast. Although the US stock market subsequently began to fall, it quickly rebounded: the rebound of chip giants Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom pushed the Nasdaq index up 0.7% at the close.

The index has risen 31% so far this year. If the index maintains this level of increase until the end of the year, it will exceed any year since 2009.

Although the S&P 500 index also fell slightly, it quickly rebounded and closed higher. Data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group shows that in the six trading days before the Federal Reserve meeting, the S&P 500 index fell an average of 1% in the last hour of trading, but unexpectedly rose 0.8% this time.

Despite warnings from many analysts that the surge in technology stocks is just a bubble, they are now clearly playing a safe haven role. The market's enthusiasm for AI has prompted strategists to say that AI will strongly boost the US stock market. David Kostin of Goldman Sachs recently wrote in a report that the potential profit growth brought by AI has expanded the upward space of the US stock market.

According to Bloomberg, Zhiwei Ren, portfolio manager of Penn Mutual Asset Management, said:

We now feel that macro events are not important because artificial intelligence is seen as a force that changes the rules of the game.

Given the hawkish dot plot, I think the Nasdaq 100 index will fall slightly, but some large technology stocks in the AI field can support the index.

Victor Cossel, macro strategist at Seaport Research Partners, also told Bloomberg that the Nasdaq index hit a new high in a year, and the 10-year Treasury yield, which has slowly risen in recent weeks, is still far below last October's peak, creating an "ideal tailwind" for technology stocks.

Some market observers also pointed out other reasons for the rebound in the US stock market, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's refusal to commit to further rate hikes in July, and the Federal Reserve's upward revision of economic expectations. In addition, investors have found that companies in the technology industry have good balance sheets and large cash reserves, which can help them take a "tranquilizer" during economic downturns.