Apple is one step away from reaching a market value of "3 trillion dollars".

Apple is expected to become the first company in the world with a valuation of $3 trillion, but achieving this goal is not easy.

The overnight US stock market saw Apple's stock price hit a historic high of $183.79 per share, breaking the previous record of $182.01 per share on January 3, according to Dow Jones market data. As long as Apple closes at $190.73 per share, its market value will reach a historic high of $3 trillion.

Unfortunately, Apple failed to maintain its upward momentum and fell 0.3% on Monday, followed by a further 0.13% decline after hours.

Since the beginning of this year, Apple's stock price has surged by 47%, with a market value of $2.88 trillion, just one step away from the $3 trillion mark.

Under the trend of generative AI, Apple's stock price, along with other tech stocks, has been rising steadily, but its performance is mainly attributed to its stronger-than-expected Apple sales and relatively strong earnings. In addition, Apple's recent launch of the "strongest headset" VisionPro has also impressed the entire market.

Optimistic analysis: Apple and service business may be key catalysts

Looking ahead, some analysts believe that there are several catalysts that could push Apple's market value to $3 trillion.

In a research report on June 7, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives estimated that there are about 250 million old Apple phones in consumers' hands, and these consumers have not bought new phones for at least four years.

Ives expects that Apple15 will convince these people and loyal Apple users to buy new phones and spend more budget on them.

Ives also said that VisionPro is not the "star business" that Apple is really undervalued in the future, and that Apple's service business (including AppStore, AppleTV, and other subscription products) is.

He expects that Apple's service revenue will reach nearly $100 billion this year, compared to just $50 billion in 2020.

Ives set a target price of $220 per share for Apple's stock, far above Monday's closing price.

Pessimistic analysis: Apple and service business under pressure, VisionPro uncertainty

However, not all analysts are as optimistic as Ives.

In a research report on June 5, analysts from the research department of ItaúBBA Bank in Brazil wrote: "In the long run, we believe that the launch of Apple's VisionPro may change the rules of the game for the company, but these revenues may take some time to take effect." The rating of the stock is lower than the market, with a target price of only $140 per share.

On Monday local time, UBS analyst David Vogt expressed concern that Apple's sales and service revenue may slow down.

Vogt wrote that recent research by UBS showed that compared to data from six months ago, there is a clear willingness among consumers to buy Apple in the next 12 months, or a sustained slight decrease.

"Difficult competition, macro headwinds, and slowing growth in Apple's installed base will result in a significant slowdown in revenue growth for the 23rd and 24th fiscal years."

Apple's high valuation is also a factor in Vogt's downgrade. Apple's expected P/E ratio is 28.6 times, significantly higher than the stock's historical average of 22.7 times.

Vogt believes that this valuation is too high and does not yet reflect investor pricing for VisionPro.

He downgraded Apple's stock rating from Buy to Neutral, but raised the target price from $180 per share to $190 per share.