Wellington: The U.S. expansion of buybacks is a "gamble" that short-term interest rates will decline

智通财经
2026.08.19 21:47
富国经济学家 Tom Porcelli 和 Michael Pugliese 在研报中指出，鉴于财政政策的不可持续性，美国财政部将长期债券回购规模至少扩大一倍的决定需要转而加大短债发行来为其提供资金，相当于是对短端利率走低的 “豪赌”。短端利率可能下降，但前提是通胀保持粘性，且中性利率的预期持续走高。他们写道：“换句话说，在预算赤字占 GDP 的 6% 且利息成本处于历史高位的情况下，缩短国债的加权平均久期是冒险之举”。流动性回购工具并非为充当 “久期支撑工具” 而涉及，虽然下意识反应可能正面，但长远而言市场未必这么看。
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