Overseas Debut: Is DiDi’s Moment Finally Here?

Ride-hailing leader $ DiDi.US posted its Q2 FY26 results on Aug 13 after market. Overall, the print was solid, with both GTV and adj. profit beating Bloomberg consensus.

Trend-wise, China biz growth was steady but slightly slower, with margins broadly stable. The standout was Intl, where growth continued to accelerate while absolute losses peaked; in limited mgmt interactions, the company also shared a cadence for Intl profitability.

In short, after trading around floor levels, a re-rating finally looks due.

1) China is fully mature: This quarter, China GTV was RMB 90.4bn (+9.5% YoY), broadly steady vs. Q1 with modestly slower growth, and slightly above Bloomberg’s 8.4%.

By price vs. volume, China order volume rose 8.1% YoY, likewise decelerating QoQ. This implies the remaining ~1.4% growth was driven by higher Avg. ticket.

Overall, China remains stable, entering a ‘late-maturity’ phase where growth slows gradually at a low base as comps rise.

2) China net take-rate broadly stable: This quarter, China mobility revenue (GTV ex. taxes and rider subsidies) was ~RMB 54.8bn (+8.8% YoY), with QoQ growth up 0.1ppt, narrowing the gap vs. GTV growth.

Platform sales in China (GTV ex. driver payout and taxes) grew 21.6% YoY, following the same trend as GTV with a slight decel (-0.6ppt), yet still notably outpacing GTV in absolute growth.

On platform sales/GTV, the take-rate reached 24.3%, up 2.4ppt YoY with the pace broadly stable.

That suggests the Avg. driver payout has broadly stabilized recently, without a notable drop vs. Q1. Consumer subsidies likely tightened QoQ.

All in, the net take-rate retained by the platform should be broadly stable, which also underpins the largely steady adj. EBITA margin QoQ discussed below.

3) Intl keeps surging, scale first over profits: This quarter, Intl GTV growth kept accelerating to 61%, clearly above Bloomberg’s ~55%.

Ex-FX tailwinds, growth was 53%, still ~4ppt faster than Q1. While the acceleration narrowed (vs. 11ppt in Q1), given the rapidly rising base, Intl growth remains strong.

Similarly, Intl orders rose 29% YoY, accelerating 2ppt QoQ. Avg. ticket was RMB 31.1, up RMB 1.2 QoQ. Combined, these indicate Didi’s food delivery in markets like Brazil performed well this quarter.

Yet, as before, with partner sharing and consumer subsidies, Intl platform sales grew only 18% YoY, up ~1ppt vs. Q1, still well below GTV growth. In other words, delivery remains in a ‘spend for scale’ phase.

On platform sales/GTV, the blended Intl take-rate was ~7.5%, and it has declined for three consecutive quarters.

4) Profits improved materially, beating estimates: With China take-rate steady this quarter, on adj. EBITA/GMV, margin was 4.6%, roughly flat QoQ. YoY, margin expanded ~0.2ppt, with profit at RMB 4.17bn (+15% YoY), also above Bloomberg’s RMB 3.9bn.

Intl loss was RMB 2.89bn, nearly unchanged vs. Q1. While the business is scaling rapidly, losses no longer widen; loss ratio fell from 7.7% to 6.6%. This likely signals the peak loss is behind us, a modest beat.

Other segments’ loss also narrowed, from RMB 910mn to RMB 740mn. With all segments printing better-than-expected profits, group adj. EBITA reached RMB 540mn this quarter. The absolute profit is still small, but versus consensus and last quarter’s loss, the improvement is substantial.

5) GP under some pressure; opex growth peaking: From costs and opex, Didi’s overall GPM was 20.2%, up ~50bps YoY, but the uplift vs. the prior two quarters (90bps and 70bps) was narrowing, reflecting the impact of Intl investment.

Seasonality (Q2 tends to be a GPM high), also drove a solid QoQ uplift this quarter.

On opex, total four operating expense lines grew 37% YoY, still high but down from 49% last quarter, indicating slower growth.

The key was marketing YoY growth easing from 96% to 67%, with the absolute QoQ increase just a touch above RMB 300mn. Dolphin Research believes this aligns with Intl losses peaking, i.e., Intl spend in absolute terms is also near peak.

Other opex lines’ YoY growth stayed around ~20%, slightly slower vs. Q1.

6) Shareholder returns underwhelming: Per company disclosure, from late May to late Jul, Didi repurchased ~$86mn of shares, plus ~$195mn in Q2 buybacks, which annualizes to ~4% of current mkt cap. Given recent share-price weakness, returns to shareholders are not high.

That said, Intl investment requires capital, and net cash inflow has been negative in recent quarters.

7) Key confidence items from the print

Dolphin Research View

In summary, Didi’s quarter looks good on margin deltas vs. expectations. The main highlight is that while Intl and other segments still lose money, the cash-generating China core kept profit growth resilient.

As Intl scale expands, operating and profit leverage should release more visibly, reducing the drag on group earnings.

We expect market logic to shift from ‘Intl burns China profits’ and depressed valuation to a SOTP framework:

a) China’s cash-generation holds profit steady in a mature phase;
b) Even if Intl underdelivers, it shouldn’t overly drag profits; if it meets guidance, it warrants incremental valuation.

After a ~40% drawdown and trading around floor levels, post-earnings the stock likely enters a sustained repair phase.

On valuation, with Intl losses likely peaking, the market should shift from consolidated profit-based valuation back to SOTP. Specifically,

a) China remains broadly stable, so we maintain our prior 2026 adj. EBITA forecast of ~RMB 15.5bn.

Assuming RMB 15.5bn adj. EBITA for 2026 China, net of ~RMB 2.5bn SBC (non-op income well exceeds tax, so no extra tax deduction).

On multiples, unlike e-commerce, where competition anchors the center at 8–10x, Didi’s moat and visibility are stronger; a 12x multiple on the China core implies ~RMB 150–160bn.

b) Intl losses in 2026 stay flat in absolute terms, with loss ratio narrowing as revenue scales; Intl mobility and financial target $100mn profit in 2027 and $300mn in 2028.

Unprofitable today can be valued at zero; but if Intl turns profitable as guided, using >20x PE on $300mn for 2028 and discounting back 15% to 2026, that implies ~RMB 30bn.

In other words, as Intl starts to harvest, Didi’s valuation could revert toward RMB 150–200bn (approx. $12.2–29.0bn), leaving meaningful upside with reasonable visibility.

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Dolphin Research’s prior takes on [滴滴出行]:

Earnings reviews

Jun 2, 2026: China fully mature, Intl spending aggressively — is Didi’s future ‘Intl Didi’?

Mar 13, 2026: Food-delivery war hits Brazil, and Didi feels the pain

Nov 28, 2025: Not hit by delivery wars — why did Didi still stumble?

Aug 28, 2025: No delivery attachment, and Didi still looked fine?

Jun 5, 2025: Delivery war didn’t spread — Didi made serious money quietly

Mar 19, 2025: Didi: China fully mature yet needs guarding; Intl story to be told slowly?

Nov 29, 2024: Didi: China already ‘lying flat,’ Intl not fast enough

Aug 23, 2024: Squeezing profits — can Didi have a late-sunset glow?

Deep dives