Bank of America: Apple-Intel Partnership Could Trigger €4.6 Billion Equipment Buying Spree, ASML Poised to Be Biggest Winner

The potential chip foundry partnership between Apple and Intel is drawing widespread attention in the semiconductor equipment industry.

According to the latest analysis by Bank of America, the value of this cooperation agreement could reach up to $10 billion, driving Intel to make large-scale purchases of chip manufacturing equipment. Dutch semiconductor equipment giant ASML and hybrid bonding equipment manufacturer BE Semiconductor have been identified as the most direct beneficiaries.

Bank of America estimates that if the scope of cooperation covers the iPhone product line, Intel's equipment orders from ASML could reach as high as €4.6 billion; orders for hybrid bonding machines from BE Semiconductor could jump to 182 units, far exceeding previous expectations. This outlook constitutes a substantial benefit to the performance prospects of these two Dutch equipment suppliers.

Background of the Cooperation: Apple and Intel Negotiate for Over a Year

As reported by The Wall Street Journal earlier this month, Apple and Intel have reached a preliminary agreement on chip foundry services after negotiations lasting more than a year. Currently, Apple's chips are primarily manufactured by TSMC. If this potential partnership with Intel materializes, it will mark a significant adjustment in Apple's supply chain.

However, specific technical details of the cooperation remain unclear to the outside world, including which process technology Intel will adopt and which products it will manufacture for Apple, none of which have been disclosed yet.

Equipment Demand: Inclusion of iPhone Determines Order Scale

Bank of America analysts point out that the scale of Intel's equipment purchases will largely depend on whether the cooperation includes the production of iPhone chips.

In the baseline scenario, where the cooperation does not include the iPhone, Intel's orders from ASML are expected to be around €1.8 billion. Once the iPhone is included in the scope of cooperation, this figure will climb significantly to €4.6 billion, corresponding to Intel's need to purchase 15 EUV lithography machines.

BE Semiconductor also shows a significant divergence in expectations. If the cooperation is limited to non-iPhone products, Intel's orders for its hybrid bonding machines would be approximately 15 units; if it covers the iPhone, orders would jump to 182 units—a figure substantially higher than the 80 units Intel originally expected to purchase between 2024 and 2030.

ASML's Core Position: Monopoly Advantage in EUV Highlighted

ASML occupies a core position in this potential benefit landscape, fundamentally due to its monopoly in the EUV lithography machine market. EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography) equipment is indispensable for producing the most advanced process chips, and ASML is the sole global supplier of EUV lithography machines.

If Intel is to undertake Apple's advanced chip orders, it will inevitably need to expand its EUV capacity, placing ASML in an irreplaceable position within this cooperation chain.

The potential increase in orders for BE Semiconductor is closely related to Intel's recent strategic direction of actively expanding its packaging business. Bank of America's analysis points out that if Apple entrusts Intel with both packaging and bonding services, it will directly drive Intel's demand for hybrid bonding equipment.

Intel has recently continued to intensify its marketing efforts for packaging services. As strong demand for AI infrastructure construction has tightened TSMC's packaging capacity, Intel is actively seizing this window of opportunity to win over customers.