AST SpaceMobile's stock price plummeted over 10% after hours: Q1 revenue and profit were dismal, far below expectations, with the annual financial forecast being the only consolation

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, on Monday after the US stock market closed, satellite communication company AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) announced disappointing first-quarter financial results that greatly disappointed the market. Despite the company maintaining its full-year revenue guidance, its stock price fell sharply by over 10% in after-hours trading.

Disappointing Revenue, Losses Far Exceed Expectations

The financial report shows that AST SpaceMobile achieved revenue of only $14.73 million in the first quarter. Although this represents explosive growth compared to $718,000 in the same period last year, it is far below Wall Street's expectation of $39 million. The net loss attributable to shareholders for the quarter reached $191 million, compared to a loss of $45.7 million in the same period last year, while analysts had previously expected a loss of $86.8 million. The loss per share was recorded at $0.66, compared to a loss of only $0.20 per share in the same period last year, while the market expectation was a loss of $0.24.

The significant increase in operating expenses was a major driver of the expanded losses, with the company's total operating expenses in the first quarter rising to $164.1 million, primarily due to substantial increases in engineering services and administrative expenses.

Full-Year Financial Guidance Remains Unchanged, A "Consolation Prize" in a Disappointing Report

Amid the disappointing performance, AST SpaceMobile maintained its full-year revenue guidance for 2026 at between $150 million and $200 million, providing a rare consolation for the market. Currently, Wall Street's forecast for full-year revenue is approximately $181 million.

The company stated that about half of this estimated revenue will come from existing contracts signed with mobile operator partners and the U.S. government. Wall Street still expects AST SpaceMobile to achieve profitability by 2028, with annual revenue expected to reach $1.6 billion by then.

AST SpaceMobile previously revealed that as of the end of March, its contract order value had exceeded $1.2 billion, but the latest financial report did not disclose updated backlog data. As of the end of the first quarter, the company held approximately $3.5 billion in ample cash reserves, with no short-term funding shortages anticipated. Analysts expect AST SpaceMobile to consume approximately $1.6 billion and $800 million in cash in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with positive free cash flow expected by 2028.

Technological Breakthroughs and Accelerated Deployment Go Hand in Hand

AST SpaceMobile is building what it claims to be "the world's first and only space cellular broadband network." Technologically, the company announced that its previously launched Block 1 BlueBird satellite measured peak download speeds of 98.9 Mbps over the high seas, and it is expected that the currently orbiting Block 2 satellites can nearly double this speed.

In terms of deployment, the company reiterated its ambitious goal: to complete the launch of 45 satellites in orbit by the end of this year to provide initial continuous coverage in target markets such as the United States and Japan. Achieving this goal is crucially dependent on the subsequent launch pace. The company announced that three satellites (BlueBird 8, 9, and 10) are expected to be launched aboard SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket in mid-June; more than 20 spacecraft (satellites 11 to 33) are in the later stages of assembly. However, its partner Blue Origin failed last month to place BlueBird 7 into the correct orbit, raising concerns for subsequent high-density launches In addition, the Federal Communications Commission has granted the company supplemental coverage authorization, allowing it to provide commercial services in the United States using the planned 248 satellites, clearing key regulatory hurdles.

Market Patience Tested Under High Valuation

Over the past 12 months, AST SpaceMobile's stock price has more than doubled, with its market capitalization once soaring to approximately $32 billion. However, the impressive stock performance stands in stark contrast to its currently virtually nonexistent commercial revenue, leading some to label it as a "meme stock."

Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu pointed out in a research report that the execution of the launch plan for 2026 is crucial for AST SpaceMobile. If the company fails to accelerate its launch pace this year, it could raise doubts among investors about its capabilities and lead to concerns that mobile network operator partners may waver and abandon the collaboration. If the company can adhere strictly to its timeline, it is expected to carve out a "healthy share" in the burgeoning satellite direct-connect device market. However, facing competition from SpaceX's Starlink, which already has over 10,000 satellites in orbit and more than 10 million users, as well as Amazon (AMZN.US), which acquired Globalstar (GSAT.US) for spectrum resources, AST SpaceMobile is encountering increasingly fierce competition