Is Eli Lilly Falling Behind? New Oral Weight-Loss Drug Foundayo Launches to a Cold Reception as Novo Nordisk Surpasses with 5x Prescription Volume

Eli Lilly's newly launched oral weight-loss drug Foundayo has seen prescription volumes far lower than those of competitors in its initial launch phase, raising market doubts about its ability to catch up with Novo Nordisk in the oral weight-loss drug segment.

According to IQVIA data cited by RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh, Foundayo generated 3,707 prescriptions in its second week on the market, whereas Novo Nordisk's oral version of Wegovy recorded 18,410 prescriptions in the same period, marking a significant gap.

Following the announcement, Eli Lilly shares dropped 8% in pre-market trading, while Novo Nordisk shares rose 4%.

Trung Huynh wrote in his research report, "While we believe early-stage comparisons have limited significance, Foundayo's prescription volume performance this week could be negatively interpreted by the market." He also pointed out that evaluating its true market performance will remain challenging for two to three months post-launch due to factors such as sample distribution programs and difficulties in tracking telemedicine prescriptions.

Oral Weight-Loss Drugs Become a New Battleground; Novo Nordisk May Maintain Leadership

Oral weight-loss drugs are viewed by investors as the next frontier in the weight-loss medical sector, with competition between the two giants expanding from injectables to the tablet market.

Foundayo received approval from US regulators earlier this month under a new review procedure designed to expedite the market launch of promising drugs. This approval puts pressure on Novo Nordisk, whose oral version of Wegovy launched in January this year has become a key pillar of its business recovery.

However, analysts at Danske Bank noted in their Friday research report that in the area of oral weight-loss drugs, Novo Nordisk may maintain its leading position thanks to more competitive products. Although no head-to-head comparative trials have been conducted between the two oral medications, Eli Lilly demonstrated in a large-scale study that Foundayo's weight loss effect falls short of the levels achieved with oral Wegovy in separate trials by Novo Nordisk.

In terms of product features, Foundayo offers certain convenience advantages—fewer usage restrictions, no requirement to take it on an empty stomach, and no need to wait 30 minutes after ingestion before eating or drinking. Notably, Foundayo is a novel molecular drug, while the oral version of Wegovy shares the same active ingredient, semaglutide, as both the injectable versions of Wegovy and Ozempic.

Lagging in Injectables Market, Eli Lilly Urgently Needs Oral Drugs to Regain Ground

In the injectable market, Eli Lilly holds the upper hand. Its injectable weight-loss drug Zepbound demonstrated superior weight-loss efficacy in head-to-head trials against Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, causing Novo Nordisk to lose its early leadership position in the injectable weight-loss drug market.

Consequently, the oral drug segment is of great significance to Novo Nordisk—if it can defeat Eli Lilly in the tablet market, it will help the Danish pharmaceutical company recover lost ground in the injectable sector and re-establish its competitive advantage.

Currently, neither Eli Lilly nor Novo Nordisk has commented on the Foundayo prescription data. Eli Lilly did not immediately respond to Bloomberg's request for comment, while Novo Nordisk declined to provide any statement.