From Weak Deliveries to AI Vision: How Deutsche Bank is Repricing Tesla?

Zhitong
2026.04.17 10:37

Deutsche Bank has lowered its target price for Tesla from $480 to $465, maintaining a "Buy" rating. It is expected that Tesla's earnings report next week will discuss the progress of Robotaxi deployment, the R&D of Optimus V3, the production plan for Cybercab, and the Terafab project. The first-quarter delivery volume was 358,023 vehicles, below market expectations, mainly affected by the production cuts of Model S and Model X and weak demand for electric vehicles. The deployment volume of energy storage products was 8.8 GWh, lower than the expected 14.4 GWh. The first-quarter revenue is expected to be around $20.7 billion, showing positive year-on-year growth

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Tesla (TSLA.US) will announce its financial report next week. Deutsche Bank has provided its latest analysis on the quarterly performance, Robotaxi (autonomous taxi) business, and the Terafab project. For the upcoming financial report, Deutsche Bank expects the core discussion topics to include: the progress of Robotaxi deployment, the research and development progress of the humanoid robot (Optimus V3), the production plan for Cybercab, and the situation regarding the Terafab project and capital expenditures. Deutsche Bank has slightly lowered Tesla's target price from $480 to $465, reflecting minor adjustments to its valuation model and framework; it maintains a "Buy" rating.

Deutsche Bank noted that Tesla's delivery performance in the first quarter was softer than expected. The bank pointed out that Tesla's sales performance in the first quarter of 2026 mainly reflected various adverse factors previously anticipated, but its overall progress is still expected to meet Deutsche Bank's annual sales forecast. The Q1 delivery volume was 358,023 vehicles, slightly below the market consensus expectation of 365,600 vehicles. The intentional reduction in production of Model S and Model X, coupled with the overall weak demand for electric vehicles globally, impacted the delivery volume for the quarter; nevertheless, consumer confidence in the European market seems to have bottomed out and is recovering.

Additionally, Deutsche Bank stated that while the energy storage business segment is expected to continue its growth momentum, the deployment of energy storage products in the first quarter was only 8.8 GWh, far below the market expectation of 14.4 GWh. This gap is likely attributed to the volatility in order delivery timing (i.e., "non-continuity of fulfillment"), and it is expected that this data will show quarter-on-quarter improvement in subsequent quarters. Overall, Deutsche Bank estimates that the revenue for the first quarter will be approximately $20.7 billion, which, although a decline from the previous quarter, still represents a year-on-year positive growth. The bank expects the gross margin for the automotive business (excluding carbon credit revenue) to be around 14.7%, down from 17.9% in Q4 2025; the main factors leading to this decline include the drop in sales and the company's cancellation of the "one-time full prepayment" purchase option for FSD (Full Self-Driving) (this policy took effect on February 15)

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