ANTA Sports Reports Strong Sales Across All Brands in Q1, Resilient Earnings, Management Remains Cautious

ANTA SPORTS released a retail performance report for the first quarter of 2026 that exceeded market expectations. The ANTA core brand rebounded from low single-digit decline in the previous quarter to high single-digit growth, Fila accelerated to low double-digits, while Descente, Kolon, and MAIA all maintained rapid expansion of 40%-55%. Inventory levels and discount rates remained stable.

According to Zhongfeng Trading Desk, Michelle Cheng, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Asia, noted in her report that despite the first quarter's performance significantly outpacing full-year guidance, management chose to maintain original targets unchanged: ANTA core brand retail growth > low single-digits, Fila mid single-digits, other brands >20%.

Management's rationale is that the strong first quarter benefited partly from consumption front-loading due to the Spring Festival calendar shift; post-Spring Festival transaction volumes have slowed, and macroeconomic uncertainty remains. However, management also stated that if the second-quarter trend continues, they may reconsider the full-year outlook. Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating with a target price of HKD 108, representing approximately 31% upside from the current share price.

Looking ahead over the next few months, the May Day holiday and the 618 shopping festival are critical windows to verify whether the trend can continue. ANTA's category adjustments online (especially in footwear) are not yet complete. Management prefers to finalize these before Double 11, meaning the elasticity of the online channel has not been fully released. Additionally, recent insider share purchases were viewed by the market as a signal of confidence.

Notably, raw material cost pressures have been factored into the company's risk scenario modeling. In the worst-case scenario where oil and petrochemical product prices remain elevated, the company estimates cost of sales could rise by 3-5%, primarily affecting footwear. Management believes the company's high-margin structure provides stronger buffering capacity than peers, and any impact would earliest be reflected in product costs in the first quarter of 2027.

Fila's Rebound Proves More Substantial Than Expected

Fila's retail growth accelerated from mid single-digits in the fourth quarter to low double-digits in the first quarter, against a non-trivial comparison base—high single-digit growth year-over-year in the same period last year. CEO Jiang Yan explicitly attributed this result to the implementation of new strategies: sponsorship of the Winter Olympics and Milan Fashion Week on the brand side, renewal of core SKUs on the product side, and store format upgrades on the channel side.

The market's primary concern regarding Fila was whether the brand had reached its growth ceiling. First-quarter data shows Fila's online growth reached low double-digits (with classic series achieving high double-digits), and offline sub-brands improved comprehensively. Discount rates remained stable year-over-year, inventory sits below five months, and pricing discipline has not loosened. Management's confidence level in Fila is rated "high," second only to Descente and Kolon.

ANTA Core Brand's Recovery Is Not Yet Complete

The rebound of the ANTA core brand exceeded expectations, though some divergence exists. Adult offline channels grew mid single-digits, children's offline channels grew high single-digits, and online overall grew mid double-digits—the three-legged structure is basically restored. The "Lighthouse Store" project is considered the core driver for improving offline efficiency. The company plans to add approximately 200 Lighthouse stores this year, reaching 500 stores by year-end, plus an additional 100 lightweight Lighthouse stores.

Footwear, especially running categories, is acknowledged by management as a weakness. Against the backdrop of Nike Greater China sales still declining about 10% year-over-year, ANTA holds a positive view toward Nike's more rational pricing strategy, believing it helps improve the overall discount environment in the industry. However, management also clearly pointed out that whether discounts can continue to narrow ultimately depends on end demand and competitive dynamics, not something a single brand can decide.

Small Brands Form the True Growth Flywheel

Descente and Kolon's performance was the brightest spot in this earnings report—the former grew +30-35% exceeding internal expectations with discounts below 90%; the latter grew +50-55% with inventory under four months. Management's confidence level in these two brands is highest, and their premium positioning gives them natural insulation from discount competition.

MAIA remains in its incubation phase. Behind its +30-35% growth rate, monthly average sales per model store reached RMB 1 million across three locations. The company's stance is to prioritize building brand equity rather than pursuing short-term sales scale. Jack Wolfskin and MAIA are expected to drag overall profits in 2026 but should contribute to profitability in 2027. As for Puma, its impact timeline depends on the pace of potential deal progression.

Overseas Expansion Logic Has Become Concrete

Southeast Asia and Australia/New Zealand are currently the main battlefields for overseas expansion, while North America and Europe are classified as "long-term layout." The mid-2025 target of opening 1,000 stores in ASEAN markets within three years remains valid. Meanwhile, ANTA has partnered with Indian retailer Brandman Retail to plan store openings in major Indian cities in 2026. This marks ANTA's first substantive move in the South Asian market.

Overall, ANTA used first-quarter data to demonstrate its multi-brand matrix's adaptability across different demand scenarios. The question remains: Can this rhythm continue into the second and third quarters, or was the first quarter's outperformance merely a one-time windfall from the Spring Festival calendar shift? Management's decision not to raise guidance before answers become clear is itself a piece of information.