金价急跌，刚涨价的老铺黄金尴尬了

Gold prices have plunged, erasing all gains made since the beginning of 2026.

Investors looking to buy at the bottom have swarmed gold bar counters again, while LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK), which previously saw long queues, is now deserted.

On February 28, LAOPU GOLD just announced its first round of price adjustments for 2026, with price increases for multiple products at approximately 30%. After the hike, the price per gram for various products reached 2,500 yuan/gram.

Leveraging its ancient gold craftsmanship and a brand positioning that avoids anything but high-end shopping malls, along with 2-3 price increases annually and gross margins exceeding 40%, LAOPU GOLD has successfully sold gold at "luxury" prices. In 2025, it sold 31.375 billion yuan worth of products, a year-on-year increase of 220.3%, with net profit growing 235% to 5.03 billion yuan. The average annual sales performance for a single store was nearly 1 billion yuan.

LAOPU's high-speed performance growth is inextricably linked to the continuous surge in gold prices. Since 2023, gold prices have risen from 400 yuan/gram to a high of 1,250 yuan/gram at the beginning of 2026. The wealthy ladies of SKP, with their staggering purchasing power, were delighted: who says buying gold jewelry is a waste? Buying LAOPU not only preserves value but also offers appreciation.

But as LAOPU GOLD, having just raised its prices, encounters a sharp drop in gold prices, the market is also watching: Can the ancient craftsmanship touted by LAOPU support its ambition for continuous price increases?

Chow Tai Fook Urgently Withdraws Price Hike

Zhang Min (pseudonym), who queued for seven hours to get into the LAOPU GOLD store at Beijing SKP before the Spring Festival, explained that she originally wanted to buy "plain gold" styles—pure gold products without inlay craftsmanship. Due to the surge in gold prices, LAOPU GOLD's "fixed-price" items had not yet been adjusted. Combined with mall promotions, the price per gram for plain gold items was between 1,500 and 1,600 yuan, while inlaid diamond items were around 1,850 yuan per gram. During the same period, the price per gram for jewelry gold from other brands had already exceeded 1,600 yuan/gram, excluding labor fees. The market gold price had also surged to a high of 1,200 yuan/gram. In comparison, LAOPU's plain gold items were actually very "cost-effective."

On the eve of the price increase on February 28, the consumption enthusiasm of SKP's wealthy ladies reached its peak, with a "buy whatever is there" attitude. Facing empty counters, some customers joked that "LAOPU GOLD was bought out until only the shop and the sales assistants were left."

Consumers like Zhang Min supported LAOPU GOLD's explosive first-quarter performance. LAOPU GOLD disclosed that its first-quarter 2026 revenue is expected to reach 16.5 billion to 17.5 billion yuan, with a net profit of approximately 3.6 billion to 3.8 billion yuan. In 2025, a year where both revenue and net profit growth exceeded 200%, its full-year revenue and net profit were 27.303 billion yuan and 5.029 billion yuan, respectively. This means that in the first quarter of this year, it has already earned as much as it did in three quarters of last year. Following the performance disclosure, LAOPU GOLD's stock price rebounded 16%.

However, the market is more concerned about whether such high-speed growth can be sustained during a period of declining gold prices.

Amidst the sharp fall, the Shanghai Gold Exchange price once dropped to the 920 yuan/gram level, and recently it has been fluctuating around 980 yuan/gram. Meanwhile, the price difference between LAOPU GOLD's per-gram price and the market gold price has widened from the previous 400 yuan/gram to approximately 1,500 yuan/gram.

The listed prices of gold jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook also serve as a reference indicator for consumers: Chow Tai Fook's pure gold jewelry price has fallen from 1,600 yuan/gram in early March to 1,366 yuan/gram on March 27. The price difference between LAOPU and Chow Tai Fook per gram has also widened from the previous 200 yuan/gram to 1,200 yuan/gram.

(Domestic gold price trends since 2025. Gold prices surged 58% in 2025, during which LAOPU GOLD raised prices three times. In 2026, gold prices once rose 26%; after LAOPU raised prices on February 28 this year, gold prices have recently erased all gains for the year.)

One consumer stated that while she accepts that LAOPU carries a certain premium compared to other gold jewelry brands, the prices after this hike are truly a bit "out of reach." She will not consider purchasing LAOPU products again in the short term unless gold prices rise or the mall offers attractive discounts. After the price adjustment, the previously long queues of customers have disappeared; while customers still walk into LAOPU, there is more browsing than buying.

On the other hand, because domestic gold prices fell below the 1,000 yuan/gram level, brands like Chow Tai Fook have suspended their original plans to adjust prices for "fixed-price" products.

At the LAOPU GOLD 2025 Annual Performance Meeting held on March 24, founder Xu Gaoming emphasized that LAOPU GOLD has experienced and smoothly navigated periods of declining gold prices. LAOPU's market reputation, brand momentum, and positioning can support its premium capability. "Don't think LAOPU can only make money when gold prices are rising but can't when they are falling."

Xu Gaoming stated that the premium capability of jewelry consumer goods depends on their real value and emotional value. He also cited his own experience, saying that regardless of whether the market is up or down, one must "always give the other party the highest emotional value" to establish a mutually beneficial relationship between consumers and the brand.

Where is emotional value reflected? Some consumers revealed that after spending 500,000 yuan, they can become a LAOPU Black Gold member and enjoy a lifetime 5% discount. They can enjoy discounts ahead of certain mall events to avoid queuing, and also receive exclusive gifts like gold coins and gold bars upon reaching spending thresholds. They can book LAOPU's tea room for free to enjoy services like tea brewed in golden kettles. The tea room does not focus on selling but on providing a tranquil and comfortable environment. For some users, this is more of a status symbol.

Price Increases 2-3 Times Annually

In the gold retail sector, companies generally use hedging and other means to offset the risk of gold price fluctuations, including Cai Bai Shares and Chow Tai Fook. For example, Chow Tai Fook disclosed a fair value loss of 3.143 billion Hong Kong dollars in the first half of fiscal year 2026 due to gold borrowing.

LAOPU GOLD, with sales exceeding 30 billion yuan, emphasizes that it does not hedge. This confidence lies in its gross margins, which far exceed the industry average. LAOPU GOLD's gross margin has long been at the 40% level, while during the same period, Chow Tai Fook's gross margin was 30% and Chow Tai Seng's was around 20%.

In 2025, LAOPU GOLD's gross margin briefly dipped to 37.6%. This was mainly because gold prices continued to rise rapidly after its first two price adjustments. Following the third price adjustment in October 2025, LAOPU's gross margin returned to over 40%.

Over the past three years, 2-3 price increases per year have become a routine move for LAOPU. The continuous rise in gold prices provided the foundation for LAOPU's adjustments. However, the fact that the last two adjustments were both around 30% has caused market concern over whether consumers will "buy it."

Xu Gaoming stated that price adjustments are established, regular adjustments for the brand. The magnitude of the adjustment is based on brand momentum, the premium capability relative to the customer base, predictions of consumer reaction, and the need to maintain normal gross margins for support.

However, China Merchants Securities also pointed out that LAOPU's current revenue relies heavily on marketing that triggers consumers' fear of missing out (FOMO). Implementing price hikes may lead to a longer and deeper "demand vacuum period." Once gold sentiment cools, it will bring downside risks.

As gold prices have fallen rapidly over the last two weeks, LAOPU is beginning to face this demand vacuum period, though much depends on the magnitude and duration of the gold price decline.

Financial reports show that at the end of 2025, LAOPU had approximately 610,000 loyal members, an increase of 260,000 from the end of 2024. LAOPU is reluctant to disclose the specific composition of its customers, only revealing that repeat customers account for about 35%.

However, Xu Gaoming emphasized that LAOPU has both a high proportion of high-end customers (referred to as "high-end customers," who become Gold or Black Gold card members after spending 300,000 or 500,000 yuan) and many customers who value "quality-to-price ratio," but few who care much about "cost-effectiveness." High-end brands naturally create cultural, craftsmanship, and aesthetic premiums.

Xu Gaoming stated that when there is no pressure on consumption, high-end customers are the main support for performance. When consumption is generally under pressure, high-end customers are the ballast stone that guarantees performance. For high-end brands, high-end customers are a critical link in brand building, marketing, and sales.

Luxury goods establish brand image and tone through scarce haute couture products, selling this upper-class imagination to affluent middle-class users to achieve financial growth. International jewelry brands are mainly divided into basic and high jewelry lines; LAOPU also divides its products mainly into gold jewelry and goldware. Gold jewelry focuses on items under 100,000 yuan, while goldware carries LAOPU's ambition to expand its high average transaction value.

Xu Gaoming claimed that in the price range of basic styles, LAOPU has already carved out a large portion of the market from international jewelry brands.

As the consulting firm Rothschild noted, LAOPU's 2025 revenue surpassed the turnover of Richemont Group's jewelry business in the Chinese market; Richemont Group owns renowned brands such as Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels.

The "little black room" is a mysterious place spoken of by LAOPU users. It requires a reservation after reaching a certain spending level. The room displays various pure gold items like the "four treasures of the study," mandarin duck ornaments, the Sword of Goujian, an 1.8 million yuan Yellow Jambhala, and a 700,000 yuan Ruyi scepter. Some consumers have shared experiences of spending millions of yuan in an hour in the "little black room."

Xu Gaoming stated that high-end customer management began showing results in the second half of last year. The first-quarter performance reflects the effectiveness of high-end customer management.

"Gold Prices Can't Possibly Fall Further"

Amidst the sharp fall in gold prices, Xu Gaoming emphasized at the performance meeting: "I am certain that gold cannot fall further this year; even if it does, it will be temporary." This is perhaps his greatest confidence at the moment.

Regarding the recent significant pullback in gold prices, HuaAn Fund pointed out that the sharp correction is a typical liquidity shock and stampede-style sell-off triggered by panic. Gold has a liquidity advantage; when global assets fall across the board, investors face margin call pressure. Gold, which has the best liquidity and held many profitable positions, was sold off. The drop in gold prices then triggered more stop-loss orders and quantitative selling, putting gold under short-term pressure.

HuaAn Fund stated that compared to historical levels, the emotional shock to gold has reached extreme levels, but the price changes brought by high volatility still require attention. In the medium to long term, the macro factors supporting gold have not reversed, including the continuous gold buying demand from global central banks under de-dollarization, the erosion of long-term dollar credit, and the global geopolitical landscape. HuaAn Fund manages the largest Huaan Yifu Gold ETF in China.

International asset management giant UBS also pointed out in its latest outlook (March 26) that gold currently faces multiple headwinds, including energy-driven inflation and interest rate hike expectations, a strengthening dollar, and investment fund outflows. However, UBS believes these should be short-term factors. The current situation may trigger a global economic slowdown, causing some factors unfavorable to gold prices to fade.

UBS stated that rather than seeing this decline as gold losing its value, it is better viewed as a correction in gold's long-term upward trajectory. For investment portfolios, gold continues to play an important role in hedging and diversification. While gold prices could still fall, based on the expectation that prices will eventually rebound, these levels are attractive for long-term investors. UBS even expects a target price for gold of $5,900 per ounce by early 2027.

In April 2025, Xu Gaoming claimed that LAOPU GOLD had already broken its correlation with international gold prices and its reliance on premiums generated from the value of the gold material itself.

Through measures such as only entering high-end malls, hiring staff through processes comparable to flight attendant selection, and ensuring staff face no hard sales pressure, LAOPU has established a high-end brand image. LAOPU also cited Frost & Sullivan research stating that the overlap between LAOPU consumers and consumers of the five major international luxury brands—LV, Hermès, Cartier, Bulgari, and Tiffany—has increased to 82.4%, validating its high-end positioning.

Some LAOPU users stated that international luxury brands sell items like K-gold at prices far exceeding the raw material value and raise prices regularly. In contrast, LAOPU GOLD uses pure gold as its primary material, which offers stronger value preservation.

However, the reasons why SKP's wealthy ladies chase LAOPU could also become a constraint for the brand during periods of falling gold prices.

As gold prices plunge, the true test for LAOPU has only just begun.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

Markets carry risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their specific circumstances. Any investment made based on this is at your own risk.