Alert Escalated! IEA: April Oil Losses to Double March's, Impact Exceeds Sum of Three Historical Crises

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol has warned that the energy crisis triggered by the war in the Middle East has become the most severe supply shock in history, surpassing the intensity of the two oil crises of the 1970s and the 2022 Russian gas supply cut combined, and the situation continues to deteriorate.

Birol stated in a podcast interview hosted by Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, that oil supply losses in April will be double those in March. He pointed out that in March, some tankers that had already transited the Strait of Hormuz before the war broke out continued to arrive, but this buffer will completely disappear in April. "There is nothing for April," he said.

Birol also mentioned that the IEA is considering further releases from strategic reserves and warned that shortages of jet fuel and diesel have already hit Asia and are expected to spread to Europe in April and May. He emphasized that energy rationing may soon become a reality in several countries, and the crisis will push up inflation and drag down growth in many economies, especially emerging markets.

Supply Gap Hits Historic Highs

Birol cited specific data in the podcast, drawing a direct comparison between the current crisis and historical precedents. He stated that during the two oil crises of 1973 and 1979, each resulted in a loss of about 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil supply, both triggering global economic recessions. The current Middle East war has caused supply losses exceeding 12 million bpd, surpassing the combined total of those two crises.

Concurrently, the loss of natural gas supply due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has also exceeded the scale of the 2022 Russian gas supply cut. Birol said, "The current crisis has surpassed the sum of these three crises." He also pointed out that in addition to oil and gas, supply chains for other commodities such as petrochemicals, fertilizers, and sulfur have been severely impacted, "We are heading for the largest major supply disruption in history."

Approximately 40 critical energy assets in the Middle East have already been damaged.

April Gap Worsens, Refined Product Shortages Become the Core Issue

Birol explained the reasons for the sharp deterioration of the situation in April: the tankers that arrived in March were mostly ships that had already departed and transited before the war broke out on February 28, and these cargoes provided a brief buffer for the market. Entering April, this inventory effect will dissipate, and the supply loss will double compared to March.

In terms of supply structure, Birol identified shortages of jet fuel and diesel as the most prominent issues.

He said this shortage has already appeared in Asia and is expected to transmit to Europe in April or early May. Compared to crude oil, the shortage of refined products has a more direct impact on the real economy, directly affecting air transport and logistics costs.

Reserve Releases Address Symptoms, Not Root Causes

In response to the worsening supply situation, Birol stated that the IEA is assessing market conditions on a daily, and even hourly, basis and does not rule out advising member countries to release strategic reserves again. Earlier this month, the IEA's 32 member countries agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves to partially offset the supply gap caused by the war.

However, Birol expressed caution about the effectiveness of reserve releases. "This can only help alleviate the pain, not cure the problem," he said, "The solution lies in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. We are only buying time, and I don't think releasing reserves can fundamentally solve the problem."

He said that he would make recommendations to governments when the time is right, but his wording clearly distinguished the boundary between "intervention" and "solution."

International oil prices have surged since the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, and Tehran subsequently launched retaliatory strikes in the Gulf region. In March, global benchmark Brent crude surged by more than 60%, marking the largest single-month gain since records began in the 1980s.

This Tuesday, U.S. President Trump's statement that U.S. troops would withdraw from Iran "within two or three weeks" caused a brief rally in financial markets. However, Birol's remarks indicate that even if the conflict de-escalates, the existing supply gap and infrastructure damage will be difficult to reverse in the short term, and the structural pressure faced by the market will continue.