Google Warns Quantum Cracking Threshold May Be Much Lower Than Expected; Crypto Industry Needs to Migrate to Post-Quantum by 2029

Google researchers warn that future quantum computers may be able to break some of the encryption protecting Bitcoin and other digital assets with fewer resources than previously expected, making the discussion on how the industry should respond more urgent. Google researchers did not claim such machines already exist, but pointed to new research suggesting the computational power required to implement such attacks may be lower than many early estimates.

In a Google research blog post, the researchers stated that future quantum computers could break elliptic-curve cryptography, a type of public-key encryption widely used in the market. Their latest estimates suggest that the scale of quantum computing hardware required to break what is known as ECDLP-256, which secures crypto wallets and transactions, might be reduced by about 20 times.

This does not mean Bitcoin or Ethereum are at immediate risk. But the researchers said in a white paper released Monday that the clearest defense is to transition to post-quantum cryptography (PQC), a new security paradigm designed to withstand attacks from powerful computing capabilities. They also urged the crypto industry to reduce avoidable risks in the meantime. The researchers stated:

We urge all vulnerable cryptocurrency communities to expedite their migration to PQC as soon as possible.

Google positioned the paper as a warning, intended to buy the industry time to prepare rather than predict an imminent collapse. Last week, Google proposed a timeline to fully transition its own security systems to PQC by 2029.

Concerns about quantum computing posing a realistic threat to cryptocurrencies have been around for years. In January, Coinbase Global established an independent advisory board to study the impact of quantum computing on blockchains. In the same month, Christopher Wood, global equity strategy head at Jefferies, removed his 10% allocation to Bitcoin from his model portfolio, citing fears that the development of quantum computing could undermine the asset's security.

On Tuesday, amid the attention drawn by Google's paper, Bitcoin's price actually rose, reaching a high of 2.6% to about $68,300.

Nevertheless, the researchers said that the actual arrival of such quantum computers may still be later than the time it takes for public blockchains to complete their transition to PQC. However, the margin for error is shrinking. Given the pace of technological advancement, developers, exchanges, and wallet providers should accelerate their efforts to strengthen system security before the threat becomes a reality.

CoinShares investment strategist Matthew Kimmell referred to the paper's warning as a "responsible sense of urgency." He said, "The window of time is shortening, and it is becoming more credible. The significance of this research is that it tightens the timeline for the industry to advance research and achieve a course of action. The good news is that the problem is still solvable."

The researchers also noted that some early attempts are already underway, including post-quantum projects like QRL and Abelian, related work on Algorand, and experiments on Solana and XRP Ledger. "These pioneering projects demonstrate that the transition to post-quantum cryptography is feasible."