G7 Ready to Take Measures to Stabilize Energy Markets; U.S. Treasury Secretary Optimistic About Easing Oil Price Pressure, States U.S. Will Regain Control of Hormuz

Amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East and high volatility in global energy markets, the Group of Seven (G7), including the United States, has indicated its readiness to take further measures to stabilize energy markets. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also expressed optimism that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually resuming, which may lead to marginal relief in short-term oil price pressure. She stated that the United States and its allies are developing long-term strategies to ultimately "regain" control of this critical energy chokepoint.

The G7 announcement, released on Monday, October 30th, U.S. Eastern Time, stated: "We stand ready to coordinate closely with our partners to take all necessary measures, including to maintain the stability and security of energy markets. G7 central banks are firmly committed to maintaining price stability and ensuring the resilience of the financial system. Monetary policy will continue to be data-dependent. To this end, central banks are closely monitoring the impact of energy and other commodity price pressures on inflation, inflation expectations, and economic activity."

Yellen said in an interview with U.S. media on the same day that about 30 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past two days, and "the number of ships passing each day is increasing." She believes this trend will help alleviate upward pressure on oil prices. She also stated that the global oil market still has a "supply gap of about 10 million to 12 million barrels per day," but governments are actively working to fill it.

Regarding response measures, Yellen mentioned the International Energy Agency's (IEA) coordination with member countries to release strategic reserves and the lifting of sanctions on some Russian and Iranian oil, believing that market supply is tending to stabilize. On the Red Sea situation, she noted that the Houthi forces are currently "quite quiet" and expects this trend to continue.

Commentaries suggest that Yellen's statements are essentially providing the market with a dual signal of "short-term stabilization expectations" and "long-term strategic direction." On one hand, by resuming shipping and releasing supply, she aims to alleviate current oil price pressures; on the other hand, by proposing "regaining control of Hormuz," she is paving the way for a future restructuring of the global energy security order.

For the market, this implies that oil price movements will no longer be solely determined by supply and demand but will be increasingly embedded in geopolitical games.

Shipping Gradually Resumes: Marginal Improvement in Supply, Oil Price Pressure Expected to Ease

Yellen stated in media interviews that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has been increasing recently, and this change is positively contributing to easing upward oil price pressure.

She pointed out that "any additional supply helps," and as more oil tankers resume passage, the market is moving towards "a return to normal."

From a supply-demand structure perspective, the current global crude oil market still has a supply gap of about 10 million to 12 million barrels per day. However, with the resumption of transportation and a series of policy measures, including the release of strategic petroleum reserves, this gap is being gradually filled.

Yellen elaborated on the specific measures taken by the Trump administration to fill the oil supply gap. She stated that the strategic reserves released under the coordination of the IEA can fill a gap of about 4 million barrels per day, including the release of 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This is part of the IEA's plan to release a record total of 400 million barrels of oil reserves.

Concurrently, the Trump administration has lifted sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil that were "already in transit." Yellen emphasized that this move did not bring additional revenue to Russia and Iran, and their governments "did not receive additional funds." The purpose is to incorporate already-en-route crude oil into market supply as quickly as possible to ease price pressure.

Yellen stated that the current global oil market "generally has sufficient supply," and the resumption of shipping is one of the key variables for stabilizing market expectations.

This assessment echoes recent market movements: after the Strait of Hormuz was nearly closed due to conflict, causing oil prices to surge, market volatility has somewhat subsided as some ships have resumed passage.

Strategic Statement Escalates: U.S. Plans to "Gradually Regain Control" of Hormuz

Compared to the short-term supply and demand assessment, Yellen's remarks on future control of the Strait of Hormuz have attracted more market attention.

She explicitly stated that the U.S. plans to "regain control of the Strait of Hormuz over time," with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation through this critical waterway.

According to media reports, Yellen's vision may be realized through a U.S.-led or multinational escort mechanism, gradually restoring and consolidating security control over this waterway.

This statement signifies that the U.S. strategic positioning of the Strait of Hormuz has evolved from "crisis response" to "long-term control," reflecting the deep entanglement of energy security and geopolitics.

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for approximately 20% of the world's seaborne oil transportation, making it the true "lifeline of global energy."

During the recent conflict, Iran at one point threatened to block the waterway, leading to a sharp drop in shipping, a large backlog of oil tankers, and a rapid surge in oil prices to multi-year highs, marking one of the most severe energy supply shocks since the 1970s.

Even with some recovery, the market still faces multiple uncertainties, including supply gaps, soaring insurance costs, and high shipping risks.