Oil Shock "Timeline": Asia Already Feeling Pressure, Africa in Early April, Europe Mid-April

The global oil supply is facing a shockwave rolling from east to west, with the timing dictated by shipping schedules.

According to a research report by JPMorgan Chase analysts on March 26, disruptions to oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz over the past four weeks will cause a "sequential" shock to global supply – starting in Asia, passing through Africa, reaching Europe, and finally affecting the United States, with most regions expected to face pressure in April.

The global oil system is shifting from a "flow shock" to an "inventory drawdown problem," with timing rather than mere supply volume becoming the core variable driving market impact. Brent crude has risen 49% this month, closing at $108.01 per barrel on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Trump announced after Thursday's market close that the pause on strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure would be extended until April 6. According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump posted on social media on Thursday the 26th, stating that airstrikes on Iranian energy facilities would be delayed for another ten days, until 8 PM US Eastern Time on April 6.

Macquarie commodity strategists wrote in a client report that the market "still expects Trump to announce victory soon," but also presented a scenario with about a 40% probability: if the conflict continues until June, oil prices could reach $200 per barrel, and U.S. gasoline retail prices could jump to about $7 per gallon.

Asia Bears the Brunt, Inventory Buffers Nearing Limit

JPMorgan Chase analysts noted that Asia's high dependence on Gulf crude and oil products means it has already "felt the pressure" – with cargoes shipped before the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz largely depleted. Shipping times from the Persian Gulf to Asia are approximately 10 to 20 days, with India being the first to be affected, followed by Northeast Asia.

Data indicates that the intensity of the shock will escalate rapidly with time. JPMorgan Chase estimates that oil demand losses in Southeast Asia in April will be around 300,000 barrels per day; if inventory releases are limited to domestic use, losses in May could quickly exceed 2 million barrels per day, and approach 3 million barrels per day in June.

The Philippine government announced a state of national energy emergency this week, citing the Middle East conflict as posing an "imminent danger" to the country's energy supply.

Africa in Early April, Europe in Mid-April to Feel Pressure, Limited Direct Shortage Risk for the U.S.

According to JPMorgan Chase's timeline, Africa will be the next region to be impacted, with effects expected to appear in early April. If inland inventories are low, oil demand losses in April could reach 250,000 barrels per day.

Europe is expected to feel the impact in mid-April, but JPMorgan Chase analysts pointed out that the pressure Europe faces is "more from rising costs and competition with Asia, rather than direct physical shortages."

Due to longer shipping times, most oil cargoes are expected to stop arriving in the U.S. around April 15. However, JPMorgan Chase analysts believe that with its vast domestic crude production capacity, the U.S. is unlikely to experience direct physical shortages in the near term.

The U.S. impact will primarily be seen in price increases and "misalignments" in the refined products market. U.S. benchmark crude has risen 41% this month, but it is still about $10 lower than the global benchmark Brent crude.

Macquarie strategists raised their year-end forecast for Brent crude to $89 per barrel and interpreted the trend of the Brent futures curve – falling from around $110 to the $80 range – as the market pricing in a short-term end to the conflict.

However, the institution also warned that the probability of the conflict continuing until June is around 40%. If this scenario materializes, the extreme situation of oil prices surging to $200 per barrel and U.S. gasoline prices rising to $7 per gallon would no longer be a theoretical projection, but would have a substantial impact on global inflation expectations and consumer confidence.