Breakfast | Three Major US Stock Indexes Close Higher, Most Chinese Concept Stocks Rise

Market Overview

The prospect of a ceasefire negotiation between the US and Iran dominated Wednesday's market. As Iran's attitude hardened, oil prices rebounded from their daily lows, rising about 1% in early trading on Thursday in Asian markets. US stocks and bonds did not follow the oil price reversal.

All three major US stock indexes closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 0.77%. The Russell small-cap index rose over 1.2%. The Chinese concept stock index outperformed the broader market, closing up 1.86%. Meituan rose 13.8%, JD.com rose 8.3%, and Pinduoduo rose over 4% after its earnings report. POP MART ADR fell over 22%. Google released KV cache compression technology, causing storage stocks to fall across the board, with SanDisk and Micron leading the declines, closing down over 3.4%. Circle rebounded 2.67%.

US Treasury yields fell slightly, with the 10-year down 2.3 basis points and the 2-year flat.

The dollar recovered its losses from the previous day, up 0.45% on the day. Bitcoin and Ethereum rose 2% compared to the closing price of US stocks yesterday.

Spot gold continued its rebound from the previous evening's close, testing $4600 intraday before its gains eased. Spot silver also surged and then pulled back, remaining flat compared to yesterday's closing price.

Oman Dubai crude oil plunged 13% to $100/barrel as oil transportation to Asia began to return to normal.

During the Asian session, the Shanghai Composite Index rose over 1% to retake 3900 points, with a surge in the power sector. Computing hardware stocks surged, the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped nearly 2%, Meituan surged over 10%, and POP MART plummeted 22%.

News

China

Li Qiang held a phone call with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

Wang Yi: The right and wrong of the Middle East conflict are very clear, and it is necessary for the international community to uphold an objective and just position. The urgent task is to actively mediate and promote peace talks.

Pinduoduo's Q4 revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, and net profit decreased by 11%. The management announced its full commitment to supply chain investment; during the earnings call: "Investing heavily in the supply chain, we will recreate a Pinduoduo in three years," profit margin fluctuations will be normal.

POP MART's net profit in 2025 will surge by 293% year-on-year, with a growth rate of only 20% expected in 2026. Concerns about reliance on Labubu led to a sharp stock price drop; at the earnings conference: growth in 2026 will not be less than 20%, and Labubu will cooperate with the World Cup.

Kuaishou's revenue and net profit in 2025 both hit new highs, and KELE AI's monthly revenue exceeded $20 million.

"Economic Daily" published an article "The Food Delivery War Should End", Meituan and Alibaba stocks rose sharply.

Overseas

Iran rejected the US ceasefire proposal and stated it would not allow Trump to decide the timing of the ceasefire. The White House stated that the US and Iran are in negotiations and making progress. The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that information exchange is not negotiation. Iran stated "the strait is open except for the belligerent countries"! Under the obstruction of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia "changes course to survive", with crude oil exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu approaching the target of 5 million barrels.

Trump is forming a technology committee: Zuckerberg, Huang Renxun, Ellison, and 10 other prominent figures may be nominated.

European Central Bank President Lagarde: If necessary, interest rates will be raised at "any meeting", and the central bank will not be "paralyzed by hesitation" on the Iranian issue.

Inflationary pressure is quietly heating up, with US import prices experiencing the largest increase since 2022.

Google released KV cache compression technology, impacting storage demand expectations, and US storage sector stocks collectively fell.

SanDisk acquired 139 million shares of Nanya Technology, investing $1 billion to increase its DRAM layout.

The rapid iteration of AI is disrupting the SaaS business model, and software contracts are quietly shortening.

CPU shortage is here, Intel and AMD will raise prices again in March, having already increased prices by 10%-15% this year, with delivery lead times extending up to 6 months.

SpaceX plans to file for an IPO as early as this week, aiming to complete the listing in June, potentially raising over $75 billion.

A landmark ruling! Meta and Google were found liable in social media addiction cases.

Market Closing Report

European and American stock markets: S&P 500 rose 0.54% to 6591.90 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.66% to 46429.49 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.77% to 21929.825 points. The European STOXX 600 index rose 1.42% to 587.49 points.

A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.84 points, up 1.30%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13801.00 points, up 1.95%. The ChiNext Index closed at 3316.97 points, up 2.01%.

Bond market: The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds fell 3.76 basis points to 4.3223%. The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds fell 0.82 basis points to 3.8852%.

Commodities: In early trading on Thursday in Asian markets, WTI crude oil rose 1% intraday to $91.32/barrel. At the New York close, COMEX gold futures rose 2.27% to $4534.90/ounce. COMEX silver futures remained flat at $71.280/ounce.

News Details

Global Highlights

China

Li Qiang held a phone call with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Li Qiang stated that China is willing to work with the Netherlands to consolidate political mutual trust, adhere to mutual respect, equal dialogue, expand mutually beneficial cooperation, continuously add new impetus to the common development of the two countries, and inject positive energy into promoting world peace and prosperity. Rutte stated that the new Dutch government attaches importance to relations with China and is willing to maintain close high-level exchanges with China, promote mutually beneficial cooperation in various fields such as economy, trade, innovation, and climate change response, jointly address global challenges, and safeguard common interests.

Wang Yi: The right and wrong of the Middle East conflict are very clear, and it is necessary for the international community to uphold an objective and just position. The urgent task is to actively mediate and promote peace talks. Wang Yi stated that the urgent task is to actively mediate and promote peace talks, seize the opportunity for peace, and promote the cessation of hostilities. The situation in the Middle East is changing rapidly, and both the United States and Iran are releasing information about negotiations, showing a glimmer of peace. If this war continues, it will only bring more casualties and futile losses, leading to further escalation of the situation. The international community should actively promote the parties to the conflict to start dialogue. As long as dialogue begins, there is hope for peace.

Pinduoduo's Q4 revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, and net profit decreased by 11%. The management announced its full commitment to supply chain investment; during the earnings call: "Investing heavily in the supply chain, we will recreate a Pinduoduo in three years," profit margin fluctuations will be normal

• Pinduoduo's revenue in 2025 was 431.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 99.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. Q4 revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, and net profit decreased by 11% year-on-year to approximately 24.5 billion yuan. The company's management clearly stated that it will increase investment in the supply chain with a "full commitment" posture in the future, and directly warned that this will put pressure on financial performance.
• The management clearly stated that in the next three years, the company will not pursue business diversification, but will "go all in" on the supply chain to "recreate a Pinduoduo." Facing fierce industry competition and a complex global regulatory environment, executives emphasized compliance as the bottom line and clearly guided the market: to exchange for the long-term intrinsic value of the ecosystem, they will actively sacrifice short-term financial performance, and future quarterly profit margin fluctuations and volatility will become "normal."

POP MART's net profit in 2025 will surge by 293% year-on-year, with a growth rate of only 20% expected in 2026. Concerns about reliance on Labubu led to a sharp stock price drop; at the earnings conference: growth in 2026 will not be less than 20%, and Labubu will cooperate with the World Cup

• According to the financial report, POP MART's revenue in 2025 was 37.12 billion yuan (+185%), and net profit was 13.01 billion yuan (+293%). The overseas market has become an important growth driver. The popularity of LABUBU has made plush toys the largest category, with a single IP contributing over 38% of revenue. However, due to market concerns about its over-reliance on a single core IP and lack of a diversified second growth curve, the stock price plummeted by over 15%.
• At the 2025 annual results press conference, Wang Ning, Chairman and CEO of POP MART, stated that in 2026, the company will strive to achieve a growth rate of no less than 20%. (POP MART's revenue growth in 2025 was 185%, slightly below market expectations; net profit growth was 309%).

Kuaishou's revenue and net profit in 2025 both hit new highs, and KELE AI's monthly revenue exceeded $20 million. Kuaishou's revenue and profit in 2025 both hit new historical highs: total revenue reached 142.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%; adjusted net profit was 20.6 billion yuan, an increase of 16.5%. KELE AI's annualized revenue run rate (ARR) reached $240 million, and overseas losses narrowed by 92%. The company also announced a final dividend and continued share buybacks, with a total dividend per share of 1.15 Hong Kong dollars for the year, demonstrating strong profit confidence.

"Economic Daily" published an article "The Food Delivery War Should End", Meituan and Alibaba stocks rose sharply, this war once burned 80 billion in half a year. Price wars cannot go far; there are no winners in involutionary competition. The food delivery war should end.

Overseas

Iran rejected the US ceasefire proposal and stated it would not allow Trump to decide the timing of the ceasefire. The White House stated that the US and Iran are in negotiations and making progress. The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that information exchange is not negotiation. Iran proposed five conditions to end the war, including recognizing its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, stating that the US's 15-point proposal was a "list of fantasies"; if it supports Iranian hostile forces, the infrastructure of "certain regional countries" will be fiercely attacked. Iran's Foreign Minister stated that in recent days, the US has conveyed a ceasefire proposal to Iran through "friendly countries," which is being studied by senior Iranian officials. This is information exchange, not dialogue or negotiation. The White House reiterated its plan of action against Iran for four to six weeks, stating that external claims of US-Iran meetings in Pakistan and elsewhere should not be considered confirmed arrangements. The Iranian military threatened to open a new front in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, claiming that the situation in Hormuz is under Iran's control; it shot down a US F-18 fighter jet. The Iranian president stated that the country's senior leadership is highly united on the issue of war. The Speaker of the US House of Representatives stated that the US military will not engage in ground combat in Iran. The White House is reportedly planning to hold a meeting in Pakistan this weekend to discuss an "exit strategy" from the Iranian war. Israel is reportedly concerned that the US may unilaterally cease fire to promote negotiations, and the Israeli Prime Minister has ordered the destruction of as many Iranian military industrial facilities as possible within 48 hours. Arab mediators stated that Iran's private attitude is less tough than its public stance, and negotiations are difficult but not broken.

The US is proposing a ceasefire plan while accelerating troop deployment, and Iran has told mediators: suspects that peace talks are just a pretext. The US-Iran conflict has entered a highly tense stage of parallel diplomacy and military action. The US is simultaneously presenting a 15-point ceasefire proposal and accelerating troop deployment to the Middle East, with the timing highly coincidental with Trump's deadline. Iran, on the other hand, has told mediators that it "does not want to be fooled again," refusing to accept Trump's special envoy and warning that the energy corridor of the Strait of Hormuz will be under pressure. The Iranian military spokesperson bluntly stated: "The Americans are negotiating with themselves."

Regarding the ongoing war with Iran, Trump "passes the buck" to senior US government officials. The US and Israel's military actions against Iran have not met expectations, and senior officials from both sides have "passed the buck." Trump has blamed the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff for two consecutive days, claiming they were unwilling to seek reconciliation and were bent on war. On the Israeli side, the head of Mossad, Barnea, is accused of misleading the US and Israeli governments, claiming that internal Iranian chaos could be incited and the regime overthrown after the attack.

Iran stated "except for the belligerent countries, the strait is open"! "Non-belligerent ships" can pass through the Strait of Hormuz "in coordination with Iran". Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi stated that Iran is committed to achieving a comprehensive ceasefire and not just a temporary one. The Strait of Hormuz is open to everyone, and ships can pass safely, but countries engaged in conflict are not included. Non-belligerent ships can pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz after coordinating with them. At the same time, market rumors spread that Iran was charging some merchant ships a transit fee of up to $2 million, which the Iranian Embassy in India denied.

Under the obstruction of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia "changes course to survive", with crude oil exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu approaching the target of 5 million barrels. The crude oil export volume from Yanbu has doubled in just over two weeks. According to estimates, even if Yanbu exports reach the target level, it will only compensate for about half of the Persian Gulf export losses this month, and the overall export volume will still be about 2 million barrels/day lower than before the conflict.

Trump is forming a technology committee: Zuckerberg, Huang Renxun, Ellison, and 10 other prominent figures may be nominated. According to reports, Trump plans to announce on Wednesday that 13 prominent figures in the tech industry, including Zuckerberg, Huang Renxun, and Ellison, will join the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. David Sacks, White House Director of AI and Cryptocurrency Affairs, will serve as co-chair. The committee will advise the White House on artificial intelligence policy and other issues.

European Central Bank President Lagarde: If necessary, interest rates will be raised at "any meeting", and the central bank will not be "paralyzed by hesitation" on the Iranian issue. Lagarde stated that if the current surge in energy costs triggers broader inflation, the central bank will act decisively and quickly. She emphasized that she will not act rashly before fully understanding the scale and duration of the shock, but if necessary, policy will be adjusted at any meeting, and the commitment to achieving the medium-term inflation target of 2% is unconditional.

Inflationary pressure is quietly heating up, with US import prices experiencing the largest increase since 2022. US import prices in February rose 1.3% month-on-month, the largest monthly increase since March 2022. The year-on-year increase was 1.3%, the highest level since February 2025. Excluding oil, import prices still rose 1.2% month-on-month, a new high since January 2022. Price pressure has spread from energy to broader goods. Export prices also surged by 1.5%, the largest increase since May 2022. As the data was collected before the Middle East conflict, subsequent inflation faces further upward risks.

Google released KV cache compression technology, impacting storage demand expectations, and US storage sector stocks collectively fell. Google introduced memory compression technology TurboQuant, which can compress the key-value cache of large language models to 3 bits, achieving a 6-fold memory reduction and up to 8-fold acceleration, sparking market concerns about storage demand. However, Morgan Stanley pointed out that this technology only affects the inference stage and may even activate more AI application scenarios. Storage stocks plummeted intraday, with most falling narrower at the close. SanDisk and Micron closed down 3.4%, Seagate down 2.6%, and Western Digital's decline narrowed to 1.6%.

SanDisk acquired 139 million shares of Nanya Technology, investing $1 billion to increase its DRAM layout. SanDisk's subsidiary, SanDisk Technology, will acquire approximately 139 million shares of Nanya Technology through a private placement for about $1 billion. As a supporting arrangement for the transaction, Nanya Technology will supply DRAM products to SanDisk Technology under a multi-year strategic supply agreement, marking a shift from a simple buyer-seller relationship to a deep strategic partnership.

The rapid iteration of AI is disrupting the SaaS business model, and software contracts are quietly shortening. Enterprise customers are shortening contract periods from multiple years to one year or even monthly renewals to retain flexibility in switching vendors. The pricing logic of charging per "headcount" faces structural challenges, sales cycles are shortening, customer churn rates are rising, and capital is accelerating towards AI-native companies, leading to a profound restructuring of the software industry.

CPU shortage is here, Intel and AMD will raise prices again in March, having already increased prices by 10%-15% this year, with delivery lead times extending up to 6 months. Intel and AMD are both in short supply, with CPU price increases reaching 15% and delivery lead times extending from two weeks to half a year. HP and Dell are the first to be affected, and PC game manufacturers are crying out "can't buy goods even with money." The AI computing power craze is consuming global chip production capacity, and a supply storm sweeping through the PC and server markets is imminent. The Arm architecture may seize the opportunity to rewrite the industry landscape.

SpaceX plans to file for an IPO as early as this week, aiming to complete the listing in June, potentially raising over $75 billion. According to reports, SpaceX plans to submit its IPO prospectus to regulators as early as this week, aiming to complete the listing in June, with a projected fundraising amount of over $75 billion, higher than the previously estimated $50 billion. The latest valuation before the IPO has reached $1.25 trillion. The proportion of individual investor allocation for this IPO is expected to exceed 20%, and there may be no traditional six-month lock-up period.

A landmark ruling! Meta and Google were found liable in social media addiction cases. A US jury found Meta and Google liable and ordered them to pay damages to a 20-year-old woman who claimed she became addicted to the social media platforms of the two companies, leading to mental health crises. This outcome could signal significant risks for the two companies in dealing with thousands of similar lawsuits, potentially involving billions of dollars. Related lawsuits allege that platforms like Instagram and YouTube were deliberately designed to be addictive to young users, ignoring their mental and physical health.

Research Highlights

"New Bond King" Gundlach: US stocks are not yet a buying opportunity, this year's interest rate cut expectations have been dashed, now is a good time to buy gold. "New Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach warns that the VIX index not breaking 40 indicates that US stocks have not yet bottomed out, and investors should not blindly buy the dip. He believes that persistent inflation has dashed the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for this year, and Powell has clearly stated that there will be no rate cuts without progress on inflation. However, he is optimistic about gold and commodities, believing that the current pullback offers an excellent opportunity to increase holdings. In addition, he warns of the need to be highly vigilant about private credit risks, with CCC-rated loan spreads soaring to 1900 basis points.

Beware of the "ceasefire rebound" trap! Strategists: Iran is unlikely to accept the agreement, recommend "selling rallies"! Peter Tchir of Academy Securities believes that the probability of Iran accepting a ceasefire agreement is low: first, the trust base has been damaged by an attack during the negotiation period; second, a ceasefire would give the US military time to deploy; third, the core leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps lacks motivation for compromise; fourth, Iran may be betting on continued conflict to force the US to make concessions. Even if Iran accepts a ceasefire, the substantial damage to the global economy will not quickly dissipate, so one should "sell rallies."

Behind the AI doomsday theory, institutions are taking action again: the Federal Reserve will "turn a blind eye" to oil price shocks, and will cut interest rates within a year. James van Geelen, founder of Citrini, stated that if oil prices remain high, maintaining the current interest rate level itself is sufficiently restrictive. Rising oil prices will gradually be transmitted to the real economy, leading to economic slowdown, at which point the Federal Reserve will have room to cut interest rates accordingly. "Raising interest rates cannot create more oil supply, and with rising unemployment, the Federal Reserve is even less likely to tighten policy."

Nomura's Koocho Ming: "Iran War" occurred a few days after Trump lost the "Supreme Court Tariff War," this is not a coincidence. Nomura's Koocho Ming believes that the timing of the Trump administration's launch of the "Iran War" just days after "reciprocal tariffs" were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court and faced a refund pressure of $300 billion was not coincidental. It was intended to divert domestic political and financial crises through sudden military action. However, Iran's drone tactics have put the US military in a difficult position of escorting, leading to soaring global energy, fertilizer, and shipping costs. The unresolved tariff issue combined with geopolitical risks is pushing the global economy into a stagflationary quagmire of slowing growth and accelerating inflation.

Goldman Sachs: Will private credit trigger a new financial crisis? Goldman Sachs believes that although the private credit industry has experienced turmoil due to redemption restrictions, its scale accounts for only 4% of private non-financial credit. Even in an extreme scenario of 10% default, the drag on GDP would only be about 0.2% to 0.5%, which is unlikely to trigger a systemic crisis similar to 2008. The core risks are concentrated in the 25% exposure to the software industry and the uncertainty of AI premiums.

"Little Lobster" kicked Anthropic a bit. Open-source OpenClaw took the lead in paving the way, running the direction, forcing Anthropic to accelerate its evolution and upgrade Claude from a chat tool to a true intelligent agent.

Domestic Companies

Kimi Founder Yang Zhilin: Future AI R&D will enter an AI-led era! The company's valuation has reached $18 billion, quadrupling in 3 months. At the 2026 Zhongguancun Forum, Yang Zhilin, founder of Moonshot AI, stated that in the next few years, the research and development methods of artificial intelligence will undergo significant changes, with more and more research work being led by AI. He disclosed Kimi's latest technical roadmap, including self-developed Kimi Linear architecture and Agent cluster technology. According to sources, Kimi's valuation has reached $18 billion, quadrupling in 3 months, and a new round of $1 billion financing is underway.

Explosion in AI demand, Kingsoft Cloud Q4 revenue hits new high, Non-GAAP EBITDA doubles year-on-year, Lei Jun resigns as non-executive director. In the fourth quarter, Kingsoft Cloud's revenue hit a historical high of 2.761 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, with the growth rate further accelerating compared to the previous quarter; among which, public cloud revenue was 1.902 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%, becoming the core engine of growth this quarter. In the fourth quarter, "Intelligent Computing Cloud business bill revenue" reached 926 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of up to 95%.

Hengrui Medicine 2025 revenue 31.629 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year, innovative drug revenue reached 16.342 billion yuan.

BeiGene achieves annual profitability for the first time in 2025 with a net profit of $287 million, and revenue grows 40% to $5.343 billion.

COSCO SHIPPING Lines: Resumes new booking business to six Middle Eastern countries with immediate effect. COSCO SHIPPING Lines announced on March 25th the resumption of ordinary container booking services from the Far East to six Middle Eastern countries. Previously, the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened except for belligerent vessels. Iran sent a letter to the International Maritime Organization explicitly prohibiting passage of vessels associated with the US and Israel. The Iranian Embassy in India denied rumors of a $2 million "transit fee."

Overseas Macro

Even the most steadfast bulls "can't hold on"? Retail investors "sell" US stocks for the "first time since the end of 2023". The most reliable "support force" for US stocks is beginning to waver. According to Vanda Research data, retail investors recorded their first single-day net sale since November 2023 on Monday, selling a total of approximately $20.6 million worth of individual stocks. This shift occurred precisely against the backdrop of the S&P 500's rebound, as Trump's threats to bomb Iranian energy infrastructure eased temporarily, leading to a brief improvement in market sentiment.

Putin signs decree, Russia to restrict gold exports from May. Starting May 1st, the export of gold bars exceeding 100 grams from Russia will be prohibited. The Deputy Prime Minister of Russia stated that this is part of a broader crackdown on the shadow economy. The Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia pointed out that gold is increasingly being used as a substitute for foreign exchange in illegal transactions, facilitating capital flight and money laundering. Analysts suggest that as this policy takes effect on May 1st, there may be a wave of gold selling before then. Russia is the second-largest gold producer globally.

Overseas Companies

Meta launches its most aggressive executive incentive plan ever: if market value is less than $9 trillion within 5 years, options will not be exercised! Meta has introduced an ultra-aggressive incentive plan: executives must increase the company's market value from $1.5 trillion to $9 trillion within 5 years, otherwise their options will become void. This plan reflects the urgent pressure on tech giants to retain core talent and strengthen executive incentives amidst AI competition. At the same time, the continuously growing cost of equity incentives has had a significant impact on Meta's cash flow.

Automotive giants test the waters of military industry, Germany's Volkswagen Group negotiates "turning its struggling factories into" "missile defense component" production. Volkswagen is negotiating to transform its Osnabrück factory, which is on the verge of closure, into a production base for components of Israel's "Iron Dome" air defense system. This move will save 2,300 jobs and marks Volkswagen's return to arms manufacturing. Behind this is the wave of rearmament in Europe, combining Germany's excess manufacturing capacity with Israel's military technology, which may give rise to a highly promising strategic business.

Today's News Outlook

The 14th WTO Ministerial Conference will be held, and Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao will attend.

US initial jobless claims last week.

G7 Foreign Ministers' meeting focuses on the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine situation.

Federal Reserve Governors Bowman and Cook will speak.

Meituan earnings report.