Powell is hawkish, traders expect only a 50% chance of interest rate cuts this year, U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold have seen increased declines, and the dollar has strengthened

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that there will be no interest rate cuts without seeing progress on inflation, confirming that he will not resign during the survey period. If his successor is not confirmed by the Senate, he will continue to serve as acting chairman after his term ends. The S&P 500 fell over 1.1%, the Dow Jones dropped 1.5%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.2%. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose by 8.46 basis points, while the yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury increased by about 6 basis points. The dollar rose by over 0.5%, spot gold plummeted by 3.1%, and silver fell sharply by 6%

On March 18th, local time Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, maintaining its stance as expected, while Fed Governor Milan called for a rate cut. After the Fed's statement was released and before Powell's press conference, major assets showed little volatility. Powell's press conference leaned hawkish, leading to an expanded decline in U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and gold, while the dollar strengthened. The S&P 500 ultimately closed down 1.4%, marking the worst performance on a Fed meeting day since 2024.

Before the Fed's Decision Announcement

Before the March decision statement was released, U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, gold, and cryptocurrencies experienced intraday declines, while the dollar index rose:

The S&P 500 index fell about 0.5% intraday, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped over 0.3%.
The dollar index rose 0.25%, currently at 99.818 points.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond maintained a gain of 2.3 basis points, stabilizing above 4.22%; the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury bond rose 3.8 basis points, stabilizing above 3.7%.
Spot gold fell 2.3%, remaining below $4900.
Bitcoin dropped over 3%, and Ethereum fell over 5%.

After the Fed's Decision Announcement

At 2 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve's March meeting maintained its stance as expected, with Governor Milan dissenting, stating that the situation in the Middle East is uncertain. After the Fed's statement was released and before Powell's press conference, major assets showed little volatility, fluctuating within a narrow range:

U.S. stocks continued to decline, but the drop slowed within half an hour after the announcement.
The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury bond briefly fell 2 basis points to below 3.69%.
Spot gold remained below $4900.
The dollar index maintained a gain of 0.2%.

Powell's Press Conference

During the press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that there would be no rate cuts without seeing progress on inflation, and discussions about a potential rate hike have been mentioned. He confirmed that he would not resign during the investigation period, and if his successor is not confirmed by the Senate, he will continue to serve as acting chairman after his term ends.

Powell's press conference leaned hawkish, dominating market trends on Wednesday. As a result, U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and gold saw expanded declines, while the dollar index saw increased gains:

The S&P 500 index fell over 1.1%, the Dow Jones dropped 718 points, a decline of 1.5%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.2%. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index suffered losses. The biotechnology index fell 1.9%, the semiconductor index fell 0.2%, and the banking index fell 0.6%.
The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.91% in the overnight session, at 25,479 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index closed down 2.21% in the overnight session, at 4,989 points.
The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury bond rose 8.46 basis points, reaching a daily high of 3.7581%; the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose about 6 basis points, and the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond rose about 4 basis points; the yield on the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) rose over 3 basis points, reaching a daily high of 1.8426%, while the two-year TIPS yield rebounded from 0.34% to nearly 0.42%, and the 30-year TIPS yield rose over 2 basis points to 2.6213%
The US Dollar Index rose over 0.5%, significantly increasing during Powell's press conference, reaching a daily high of 100.110 points; the Bloomberg Dollar Index rose 0.5%, hitting a daily high of 1213.22 points.
Spot gold's decline expanded to 3.1%, approaching a daily low of $4834.51 updated at 21:18 Beijing time. New York silver's intraday decline reached 6.0%, reported at $75.09 per ounce.