Cryptocurrency rose against the market on Friday, analysts: Bitcoin is approaching the bottom range of previous bear markets

Bitcoin has fallen nearly half since October last year. Cryptocurrency fund managers who have experienced the previous three bull-bear cycles indicate that a set of indicators that often mark market bottoms in the past shows that this round of selling may be entering its final stage.

Brett Munster of Blockforce Capital assesses Bitcoin's position in this downturn cycle through four indicators. One of these indicators has entered the range corresponding to market lows in previous cycles. The other two indicators are concentrated around $54,000 to $58,000, still below Bitcoin's current price of about $73,800. Bitcoin briefly touched $60,000 in February this year and then rebounded significantly, indicating that it has reached the upper end of the range that Munster considers a possible bottom.

The gap between the current price and the fully triggered range of these indicators seemingly suggests a need for caution. However, Munster believes otherwise, reasoning that in the last bear market, the difference between buying at $19,000 and catching the ultimate low at $15,600 was almost negligible for long-term holders.

While a market bottom cannot be guaranteed, Munster stated, "Most of the decline may be behind us, and the asymmetry of risk and reward is improving. The market may see a turning point around mid-year."

On Friday, Bitcoin rose as much as 5% to about $73,800, but later narrowed its gains due to a downturn in U.S. stocks, although it outperformed the broader U.S. stock market as well as gold and silver.

The indicator that has already signaled is the so-called MVRV Z-Score, which measures Bitcoin's trading price relative to its on-chain cost basis. When this indicator is below 0.4, Bitcoin is typically considered undervalued. Currently, this indicator is about 0.38.

Other indicators have not yet reached their corresponding levels. Among them:

• Realized Price, which is the average price of each Bitcoin during its most recent on-chain transfer, is currently about $54,000.

• The 200-week moving average (which has often served as an important support level in past cycles) is currently around $58,000.

• Another observed pattern is that the decline from high to low is gradually shrinking, which is often seen as a sign of an asset class maturing with increased liquidity and participation. This pattern suggests a potential bottom in the range of $45,000 to $55,000.

Overall, these four indicators point to what Munster describes as a "high-probability accumulation zone," roughly located between $45,000 and $60,000.

Even if selling pressure eases, the market will still need new demand for a sustained recovery, and there are already some signs that funds are flowing back in. The U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted inflows again after months of outflows. According to media data, over the past month, total inflows into funds including iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and VanEck Bitcoin Trust ETF (HODL) have exceeded $1.6 billion In this regard, Munster stated: "Once the selling pressure eases, even a moderate inflow of new funds will be enough to drive the market up."

It is also worth noting that some analysts have pointed out that Bitcoin has recently served as a geopolitical "barometer."