Breakfast

Market Overview

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with Brent crude oil closing above $100 for the first time since August 2022. Additionally, there is redemption pressure in the private credit market, leading to a sharp decline in US stocks.

The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, marking its lowest point since November last year. The Nasdaq dropped nearly 1.8%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell nearly 3.5%. The seven major tech companies all declined, with Tesla leading the drop, falling over 3%. Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater's private credit fund were forced to limit fund withdrawals due to a surge in redemption requests, causing the banking sector to slump. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs both fell over 4%. After-hours, Adobe plummeted 7% due to weak earnings outlook, and the CEO will resign.

The surge in oil prices dampens market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with traders currently pricing in less than one 25 basis point cut by 2026. The yield on the two-year US Treasury jumped 11 basis points to 3.76%, accumulating a rise of 20 basis points this week. The dollar reached a nearly two-month high. The yen fell 2%.

Gold and silver fell 2%. Brent crude oil rose nearly 10%, while WTI crude oil surged nearly 9%. Cryptocurrencies saw a slight decline.

During the Asian session, the ChiNext index fell nearly 1%, while the chemical and coal sectors surged against the trend. Hong Kong stocks declined, with the "lobster" sector adjusting again, and Guotai Junan International fell over 4%.

Key News

China

The US will initiate a Section 301 investigation against China, the European Union, India, and Japan, among 16 trade partners.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Independent Commission Against Corruption jointly investigated an insider trading case exceeding 300 million yuan, resulting in the arrest of 8 individuals.

Li Auto's Q4 revenue decreased by 35% year-on-year, with gross margin rebounding to 16.8% quarter-on-quarter, and free cash flow turning positive; during the conference call: new L9 breakthrough, pure electric ramp-up, and 10 billion R&D investment, this year is a key year for evolving into an "embodied intelligence" enterprise.

Cambricon's revenue is expected to surge over 450% in 2025, with a net profit of 2.06 billion yuan strongly turning a profit, and Zhang Jianping increased his holdings by 408,000 shares.**

AI computing power "shovel seller" Victory Technology's 2025 annual report exploded, with net profit soaring 274%, and a generous dividend of 1.7 billion.

Riding the wave of AI computing power, Shennan Circuit's 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase by 74% year-on-year, planning to distribute 24 yuan for every 10 shares.

Overseas

Iran's new leader made his first statement: "We will not give up on revenge, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and new fronts will be opened if necessary." Iran claims to have destroyed 70% of US bases and command centers in the Middle East, and any attacks on Iranian energy facilities and ports will face devastating retaliation. The US Treasury Secretary stated that escort operations will be conducted as soon as conditions permit, and the Energy Secretary mentioned it could happen this month. A US Senator revealed: Trump's Iran war is "completely unplanned." FBI: Iran may launch attacks on US soil! Trump: We can only take it one step at a time now. Dubai has witnessed multiple drone attack incidents

The market no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year! Trump urges Powell to cut rates immediately: Don't wait until the next meeting!

Nvidia splashes out $26 billion to enter the AI model arena, directly challenging OpenAI.

Musk's latest interview: “Transformers 3” is coming, AI “self-improvement” has already occurred, and after the AI singularity, “money will no longer matter.”

Honda reports its first loss since going public, with a projected loss of 420 billion to 690 billion yen for the fiscal year 2026, significantly shrinking its electrification strategy.

Market Closing Report

US and European Stock Markets: The S&P 500 fell 1.52%, closing at 6672.62 points. The Dow Jones dropped 1.56%, closing at 46677.85 points. The Nasdaq declined 1.78%, closing at 22311.979 points. The European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.61%, at 598.86 points.

A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4129.10 points, down 0.10%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14374.87 points, down 0.63%. The ChiNext Index closed at 3317.52 points, down 0.96%.

Bond Market: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose more than 3.30 basis points, reaching a daily high of 4.2746%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury rose more than 10 basis points, reaching a daily high of 3.7637%.

Commodities: WTI April crude oil futures rose 9.72%, closing at $95.73 per barrel. Brent May crude oil futures rose 9.2%, closing at $100.46 per barrel, marking the first close above the psychological threshold of $100 since August 2022.

Key News Details

Global Highlights

China

The US will initiate a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners including China, the EU, India, and Japan. According to CCTV International News, this provision authorizes the US Trade Representative to investigate “unreasonable or unfair trade practices” of other countries and may recommend unilateral sanctions by the US President after the investigation concludes. This investigation is initiated, investigated, adjudicated, and enforced by the US itself, reflecting a strong unilateralism.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Independent Commission Against Corruption jointly investigate an insider trading case exceeding 300 million HKD, with 8 individuals arrested. The investigation shows that senior executives of the licensed securities company are suspected of receiving over 4 million HKD in bribes from a licensed hedge fund management company, leaking confidential information about the companies involved in several placement arrangements in Hong Kong before the information was publicly disclosed The licensed hedge fund management company, after obtaining the aforementioned confidential information, established short positions in the relevant stocks by short-selling stocks in the market and/or entering into short equity swap contracts for its hedge fund. When the stock placement was announced, the stock price of the relevant stocks fell, and the hedge fund reportedly profited approximately 315 million yuan from its short positions.

Li Auto's Q4 revenue decreased by 35% year-on-year, gross margin rebounded to 16.8% quarter-on-quarter, free cash flow turned positive; Conference Call: New L9 breakthrough, pure electric climb, 10 billion R&D investment, this year is a key year for evolution into an "embodied intelligent" enterprise

• Li Auto's revenue in 2025 is expected to be 112.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 22.3%, with Q4 revenue of 28.78 billion yuan and an operating loss of 443 million yuan, significantly narrowing from 1.2 billion yuan in Q3. Q4 gross margin rebounded to 16.8% quarter-on-quarter, and free cash flow turned positive again, recording 2.47 billion yuan. The company expects Q1 2026 revenue guidance of 20.4 billion to 21.6 billion yuan.
• In 2026, the core driving force will be the launch of the new generation L9 flagship model and the ramp-up of pure electric models, while increasing investment in AI technology, aiming for a year-on-year sales growth of 20%. The company will officially launch the new L9 series in the second quarter. Li Xiang pointed out that 2026 is a key year for Li Auto to evolve into an "embodied intelligent enterprise." The company is accelerating its strategic leap from an intelligent electric vehicle manufacturer to an artificial intelligence enterprise through organizational restructuring and core technology self-research.

Cambricon's revenue will surge over 450% in 2025, with a net profit of 2.06 billion yuan turning losses into profits, Zhang Jianping increased his holdings by 408,000 shares. Cambricon achieved an operating revenue of 6.497 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 453.21%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company reached 2.059 billion yuan (a loss of 450 million yuan in 2024), achieving a historic turnaround to profitability, with a net profit of 1.770 billion yuan after deducting non-recurring items. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 15.00 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares to all shareholders and to convert 4.9 shares for every 10 shares from the capital reserve.

AI computing power "shovel seller" Shenghong Technology's 2025 annual report exploded, net profit soared by 274%, lavishly distributing 1.7 billion in dividends. Benefiting from the explosion of AI computing power infrastructure, Shenghong Technology delivered its strongest annual report ever in 2025: revenue of 19.292 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.8%; net profit of 4.312 billion yuan, a year-on-year surge of 273.5%, with ROE rising to 35.6%. The company is deeply bound to the AI computing power track, achieving simultaneous growth in volume and price through high-end HDI and multilayer board technology. Q4 operating cash flow was 2.219 billion yuan, accounting for 48% of the annual total, with strong cash collection capability Proposed a cash dividend of 20 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling a dividend of 1.74 billion yuan.

With the wind of AI computing power, Shennan Circuit's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 74% year-on-year in 2025, proposing a cash dividend of 24 yuan for every 10 shares. Shennan Circuit achieved an annual operating income of 23.647 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.05%. The growth was mainly driven by high-end PCBs and packaging substrates: PCB business revenue was 14.359 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.84%; packaging substrate revenue was 4.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.80%.

The big companies' Claws have brought "lobster equity," but half of the shrimp are forecasting the weather. Major companies have launched "Claw" products, achieving technological equity through cloud deployment and IM entry, allowing non-technical users to use AI agents that can work independently with zero barriers. However, behind the craze, there is a dilemma of "easy to install shrimp, hard to raise shrimp": over half of users have uninstalled due to the inability to find practical scenarios, and the high Token consumption has led to a structural contradiction between cost and value in the business model.

Overseas

Iran's new leader's first statement: will not give up revenge, the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be closed, and new fronts will be opened if necessary. Mojtaba Khamenei stated that all U.S. military bases in the Middle East should be closed immediately, otherwise these bases will be attacked.

The largest U.S. aircraft carrier involved in actions against Iran, the "Ford," caught fire, military says the fire is unrelated to combat. The U.S. Central Command stated that a fire occurred in the main laundry room of the "Ford," and the fire has been brought under control; two injured sailors are receiving treatment and are not in life-threatening condition; the ship's propulsion system was not damaged and is still operating normally. At the end of last month, the U.S. military denied reports of serious malfunctions in the "Ford's" sanitation system.

Iran claims to have destroyed 70% of U.S. bases and command posts in the Middle East, any attack on Iranian energy facilities and ports will face devastating retaliation. Iran claims it has the capability for long-term warfare and sustained combat strength, possessing a new generation of advanced missile systems that have not yet been used; it launched a fierce attack on the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet base at the port of Bahrain, with anti-drone systems and other facilities suffering "precision strikes." U.S. officials stated that there have been no significant casualties among U.S. personnel in Iraq.

U.S. Treasury Secretary says escort will be provided as soon as conditions allow, Energy Secretary says possibly this month. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that escort planning has been ongoing, and the U.S. has conducted scenario analyses for weeks or even months regarding the potential impact of war on oil transportation Energy Secretary Granholm stated that it is very likely to escort by the end of this month, but preparations are not yet ready. Trump said that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is far more important to him than oil prices; he warned that Iran would face unprecedented military consequences if it lays mines in the Strait of Hormuz and does not clear them. The U.S. military announced on Tuesday that it sank 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels. The UK stated that Iran may have begun laying mines.

After a confidential closed-door briefing, U.S. Senator reveals: Trump's war on Iran is “completely unplanned”. A Democratic senator publicly “leaked” after attending a confidential White House briefing: The Trump administration has no clear objectives or exit strategy for the war with Iran—war goals do not include destroying the nuclear weapons program or promoting regime change; once bombing stops, the answer to restarting production in Iran is “continue bombing.” The response plan for blocking the Strait of Hormuz is completely blank.

“Drones launched from unidentified vessels off the West Coast,” FBI: Iran may attack the U.S. mainland! Trump: We can only take it one step at a time. According to the Daily Economic News, after 12 days of U.S.-Israeli joint strikes on Iran, U.S. officials and media frequently reported on the “Iran threat theory”: The FBI warned that Iran might launch drone attacks on California from unidentified vessels off the West Coast; the Department of Homeland Security is concerned about “lone wolf” attacks or activated sleeper agents; security has been heightened for the Oscars, deploying bomb disposal teams and snipers. The Governor of California stated that there is currently no imminent threat but emergency preparations are in place. Trump responded that “we can only take it one step at a time.” Previously, the suspect in the Texas shooting wore clothing with elements of the Iranian flag, resulting in 3 deaths and 14 injuries.

Trump administration's new tactic to lower oil prices is coming, reports suggest plans to suspend a century-old law. The Trump administration plans to issue a 30-day waiver for the Jones Act, allowing foreign tankers to transport fuel from the Gulf Coast and other areas of the U.S. to East Coast refineries, thereby alleviating logistical bottlenecks in domestic fuel distribution. Commentators believe that the Jones Act waiver can reduce transportation costs and is a significant measure that can impact fuel distribution within the U.S.

Middle East situation escalates: Multiple drone attacks occur in Dubai, oil prices exceed $100. According to Xinhua News Agency, on March 11, two drones crashed near Dubai International Airport, injuring 4 people. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and other institutions urgently evacuated personnel, with over 46,000 regional flights canceled. Due to the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, countries like Saudi Arabia were forced to cut production, and Brent crude oil briefly surpassed $101.50. Models predict that if the closure continues for three months, oil prices could peak near $164.

Strait of Hormuz stagnation, tankers are flocking to reroute to the Red Sea, already 30 vessels! According to shipbrokers, about 30 very large crude carriers are set to successively head to the western Saudi port of Yanbu in the coming days The historical average monthly arrival volume at this port is only about two ships. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia, disclosed plans this week to export approximately 5 million barrels of crude oil daily via the Red Sea to make up for the gap caused by the disruption of the Hormuz shipping route.

More scarce than oil, Middle East LNG production cuts affect the world, and a buying spree in Asia begins. The closure of Qatar's Ras Laffan facility affects 20% of global LNG supply, combined with low inventory levels, leading to severe LNG shortages in most Asian countries; Asian buyers have raised prices to secure supplies, causing several European cargo ships to change course. Analysts believe that the surge in LNG prices will increase European chemical costs, and since only 4% of China's imports come from the Middle East, Chinese chemical companies will face a structural expansion window.

The market no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year! Trump urges Powell to cut rates immediately: Don't wait until the next meeting! On Thursday, the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds soared, and traders no longer believe that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates once in 2026 is 100%. Trump posted on social media that “Where is the always-late Fed Chairman Powell today? He should cut rates immediately, instead of waiting for the next meeting!” The conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher and threatens global supply chains, and rising dissatisfaction among the American public regarding living costs is not favorable for the Republican Party's prospects of maintaining control of Congress in the midterm elections in November.

NVIDIA splashes $26 billion to enter the AI model game, directly challenging OpenAI. NVIDIA announced it will invest $26 billion over the next five years to develop open-source large models, officially transforming from a hardware giant to a full-stack AI company. The newly released Nemotron 3 Super boasts 128 billion parameters, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-OSS with a score of 37 compared to 33. This move deeply binds its hardware ecosystem through an open-source strategy, challenging labs like OpenAI while further consolidating its absolute dominance in the AI computing market.

Jensen Huang was right! AI infrastructure urgently needs electricians: After Microsoft and Google, BlackRock invests $100 million to train skilled workers. BlackRock has invested $100 million to train technical workers, echoing Jensen Huang's warning about the shortage of electricians. Data shows that over the next decade, the U.S. is expected to need more than 300,000 new electricians to meet AI-driven demand, while over 200,000 electricians will retire during the same period. In terms of salary, with overtime or promotions to management positions, annual income can approach $200,000.

Elon Musk's latest interview: "Optimus Prime 3" is coming, AI "self-improvement" has already occurred, and after the AI singularity, "money will no longer matter"** Musk reveals that the humanoid robot "Optimus Prime 3" is nearing completion of development, with production expected to start this summer and mass production next year. He believes AI has entered a stage of "recursive self-improvement," and full automation of AI may be achieved as early as next year. He predicts that the global economic scale in the AI era could grow tenfold in the next decade, and currency will no longer be important; in the future, "AI will only care about energy and quality—power and tonnage."

Adobe's last quarter revenue exceeded expectations and set a record, but guidance is mediocre, and the longest-serving CEO will step down, falling over 7% after hours. In the first fiscal quarter, Adobe's revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, and EPS exceeded expectations by nearly 20%. The annual recurring revenue (ARR) from AI priority products increased more than twice year-on-year; the guidance for the second fiscal quarter did not significantly exceed analysts' expectations. Current Adobe CEO Narayen has been at the helm for eighteen years, completing two key transformations during his tenure, and will step down after a successor is determined. As Adobe's path to AI commercialization is still being explored, the CEO's departure raises concerns about strategic continuity.

Honda reports its first loss since going public, with a projected loss of 420 billion to 690 billion yen for the fiscal year 2026, significantly shrinking its electrification strategy. Honda's electrification transformation has encountered a setback! Due to the slowdown in the growth of the pure electric market in the U.S. and tariff impacts, Honda has significantly scaled back its electric strategy, canceling three electric vehicle models originally planned for mass production in North America and retreating to hybrid and Indian markets. As a result, the company is facing its first annual loss since going public, with a projected net profit attributable to the parent company of -420 billion to -690 billion yen.

Research Report Highlights

“The largest release of strategic oil reserves in history” is not only insufficient in scale but also slow in pace. The IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, the largest in history, with the U.S. contributing 172 million barrels. However, the market is more concerned about the pace and scale of the release: institutions estimate that the actual global release rate may only be about 1.2 million barrels per day, while the supply gap caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz reaches 11 to 16 million barrels per day. Additionally, the U.S. oil reserves face a 13-day lag in release and capacity constraints, meaning that reserves will not enter the market until at least the end of March.

The Middle East crisis impacts, Goldman Sachs lowers U.S. economic forecasts, postpones interest rate cut expectations to September, warns that stock market sell-offs may exceed average levels. Under the shadow of the Iran conflict, Goldman Sachs urgently revises its U.S. economic forecast: Brent crude oil could soar to $145 in the most extreme scenario, inflation could peak at 5% in the spring of 2026, and the probability of recession rises to 25%, with Q4 GDP growth rate forecast lowered by 0.3 percentage points. The first interest rate cut has been postponed from June to September, and Goldman Sachs warns that in historically deep geopolitical events that have impacted the economy (such as the Gulf War and 9/11), stock market declines have exceeded average levels Dreckenmiller: Over-analysis is the biggest mistake in investing, the biggest risk in 2026 is the "narrative bubble". Legendary investor Dreckenmiller stated in a podcast recorded in January that over-analysis is the greatest enemy of investors, and one should act decisively with just 15% of the information. Looking ahead to 2026, he identified narrative-driven asset bubbles as the biggest tail risk, warning that every major crisis in history has been preceded by a bubble.

Muddy Waters founder turns bearish: If AI continues to replace white-collar workers, the US 401K system may collapse. Carson Block predicts that under the impact of AI, 15% of knowledge worker jobs in the US will disappear within the next three years. The core concern is that if the unemployment rate rises and compresses the inflow of funds into retirement accounts like 401(k), it may even force unemployed workers to tap into their savings early, leading to sustained outflow pressure in the stock market, at which point "no one will catch this falling knife."

Domestic Macro

Minister of Justice He Rong: This year will accelerate the research on legislation in the AI field, focusing on solving "involution" competition. Minister of Justice He Rong stated that this year's government legislative work will focus on several aspects, one of which is to optimize the business environment, formulate national unified market construction regulations, and address issues of local protection, improper entry conditions, and "involution" competition that everyone is concerned about.

Domestic Companies

China Satellite Corporation releases video of ships taken from space: Clear and smooth images, full of details, with the caption "Bringing the world closer". China's commercial remote sensing satellite "Jilin-1" has publicly released dynamic video footage of ships on the sea for the first time, marking a qualitative leap in China's commercial space from "static photography" to "dynamic video recording." "Jilin-1" is China's first commercial high-resolution remote sensing satellite, and the satellite system has achieved large-scale networking, becoming the world's largest sub-meter level commercial remote sensing satellite constellation.

Passenger Car Association: In February, China's new energy vehicle retail sales reached 464,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32%. According to data from the Passenger Car Association, from February 1 to 28, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.034 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 25.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 33.1%. In February, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 464,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32.0%; from January to February, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.06 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 25.7%. In February, the retail sales of conventional fuel passenger vehicles were 570,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 19% Overseas Macro

EU: Will "Respond Firmly" if the US Violates Trade Agreement. According to Xinhua News Agency, in response to the US government's recent announcement of a new trade investigation against the EU and other trading partners, the European Commission stated on the 12th that if the US violates the previously reached trade agreement, the EU will make a "firm and proportionate response." At the same time, the EU will require the US to further clarify how the initiation of the "Section 301" investigation will align with the agreement reached between the EU and the US last year.

To Alleviate Housing Costs, US Senate Passes Housing Bill, Investor Restrictions May Spark Controversy in House. The US Senate passed a bipartisan bill aimed at increasing housing supply in the US, which includes a provision limiting Wall Street's influence in the housing market. The bill stipulates that investors owning more than 350 housing units cannot purchase new single-family homes and requires investors to sell part of their properties within seven years. Twelve housing and real estate industry groups oppose this provision, stating it may limit housing construction and reduce the housing options available to tenants, hoping for amendments in the House.

South Korean National Assembly Passes Bill, $350 Billion Investment in the US Officially Launched. On the 12th, the South Korean National Assembly passed special legislation to officially implement the agreement to invest $350 billion in the US. In terms of investment composition, the plan includes $150 billion for the shipbuilding sector and $200 billion for strategic industry projects, which will be advanced in batches with an annual cap of $20 billion. Analysts believe that South Korea's move aims to resolve bilateral trade frictions, but export prospects remain affected by fluctuations in US policies.

India: Plans to Establish a $11 Billion New Fund to Support Domestic Chip Manufacturing Industry. India is planning to launch a semiconductor special fund exceeding 1 trillion rupees (approximately $108 billion) to subsidize various aspects such as domestic chip design, procurement of manufacturing equipment, and supply chain construction. The fund is expected to be launched within two to three months.

Overseas Companies

In Action Before the Largest IPO in History, Tesla Approved to Hold SpaceX Shares via Investment in xAI. Media reports indicate that this equity conversion is directly related to Tesla's previously announced investment of approximately $2 billion in xAI, corresponding to Tesla's ownership stake of less than 1% in SpaceX.

Three Major International Chip Manufacturers Issue Notices, Prices to Rise by Up to 85% in April. Texas Instruments, NXP, and Infineon, three major international chip design manufacturers, have issued price adjustment notices, announcing that product prices will increase starting April 1; The 6-inch wafer foundry business of Taiwan's microcontroller supplier Nuvoton Technology is also following suit. NXP stated that this adjustment reflects the ongoing cost pressures in key areas such as raw materials and energy.

Benchmarking "private doctors"! Microsoft releases Copilot Health: supports uploading medical records and wearable data, focusing on encrypted privacy protection. Microsoft officially enters the AI healthcare space, launching the Copilot Health personal health chat application on Thursday, which supports the analysis of medical records and wearable device data, aiming to provide personalized medical services to everyone at any time. The official commitment is to encrypt data and never use it for model training, adhering to the safety bottom line of "assisting only, not diagnosing."

Today's News Preview

U.S. Q4 real GDP.

U.S. January real personal consumption expenditures, income, PCE price index.

U.S. January JOLTS job openings.

U.S. March University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectations.

U.S. January durable goods orders