Elon Musk's latest interview: "Optimus Prime 3" is coming, AI "self-improvement" has already happened, and after the AI singularity, "money will no longer matter"

On March 11 local time, during a public dialogue at the "Abundance Summit" technology conference, Tesla and xAI founder Elon Musk discussed AI advancements, the production pace of Optimus 3, and the economic landscape post-"singularity."

In this interview, he made several clear judgments: AI has entered a self-improvement phase, humanoid robots are about to enter mass production, and the economy after the AI "singularity" is hard to predict, but he bets on deflation and that "money will no longer matter."

When asked about the timeline for the construction of data centers related to SpaceX, Musk did not elaborate, citing that "SpaceX is in a quiet period."

"Optimus 3" Set to Enter Production: Mass Production Expected Next Year

Regarding humanoid robots, Musk revealed that Tesla's "Optimus 3" is nearing the completion of its development.

He stated, "We are completing the final stages of Optimus 3, and it is likely to be the most advanced robot in the world; no other products are close to its level."

According to him, Tesla plans to:

• Start production this summer

• Initial output will be low

• Expected to enter a high-output phase next year

Musk emphasized that robot production also follows the common S-curve ramp-up seen in manufacturing: slow at first, followed by rapid expansion.

He said, "Manufacturing output typically follows an S-curve, starting slowly and then rapidly climbing."

Meanwhile, Tesla is also designing a new robot production factory. He revealed that the design of this factory is significantly different from traditional factories, with the future goal of continuously updating robot versions, " possibly launching new robot designs every year."

AI Has Entered "Recursive Self-Improvement": Using AI to Train AI, Human Role Diminishing

On the pace of AI development, Musk's judgment is equally bold.

When asked if AI has entered the "recursive self-improvement" phase, he stated, "Actually, this has been happening for some time."

He explained that the development of current large models has formed a cycle:

• New models are trained with the involvement of previous generation models

• Humans are still supervising

• But their involvement is decreasing

He said, "The role of humans in the loop is becoming less and less. Each generation of models helps build the next generation of models."

He predicts that this process may soon achieve a higher degree of automation: "Fully automated self-improvement may appear by the end of this year, and at the latest, not beyond next year."

In his view, AI breakthroughs have entered an acceleration phase: "The situation now is that I see an AI breakthrough before I go to bed, and when I wake up in the morning, there's another breakthrough."

After the AI Singularity: Difficult to Predict, but He Bets on Deflation, Universal Income, and "Money Will No Longer Matter"

When discussing whether systems can keep up with the impact of AI and robots, Musk used the term "singularity" as a metaphor: "The reason it's called a singularity is that it's very hard to predict what will happen."

He mentioned that the symbol of Grok is "the halo around a black hole," and stated, "It's hard to know what happens inside the singularity, but it will be very interesting."

In terms of macro judgment, he provided a clearly optimistic range: he believes that in the future "there will be a series of possible outcomes, not all of which are good," but "it is likely to be good," with a probability "possibly 80% or even higher."

Without extreme external shocks, he said he feels "quite comfortable" about his judgment on economic growth: "In the absence of a third world war... I think a tenfold increase in economic scale within ten years is a fairly safe prediction."

He directly attributed the logic of inflation/deflation to supply surges: "We will have universal income, which is basically giving people money." The reason is that "the output of goods and services will far exceed the money supply," leading to deflation: "Deflation is the ratio of output to money supply... If the growth rate of goods and services exceeds the money supply, you will have deflation."

Further out, he believes the importance of money will decline: "Money will become unimportant at some point in the future."

He even provided a valuation method for a "non-human economy": "I think future AI will not use human currency; it will only care about energy and quality—wattage and tonnage."

Employment and "Robots Making Robots": No Layoffs, Instead Expanding Recruitment, Individual Output Will Be "Exaggeratedly High"

Regarding the question of "when robots can participate in manufacturing on a large scale and replace humans," Musk emphasized that the reality is still "there are many people": Tesla has "about 150,000 employees," of which "about two-thirds are in some form at the factory"; the related workforce in its supply chain "could be 1 to 2 million people."

However, his judgment is that efficiency will leap significantly: "We do not plan to lay off or reduce staff. On the contrary, we will increase the number of employees." The real change lies in unit output: "The output per person at Tesla will become exaggeratedly high (nutty high)."

This echoes his description of the path of technological advancement: whether AI or manufacturing, "it is often an S-curve, or a series of overlapping S-curves: initially slow, exponential growth, reaching a plateau, then another breakthrough opens the next curve."

Full interview translation:

Host Peter H. Diamandis: As you can see, I am still working hard to monetize "hope."

Musk, you look fantastic.

Diamandis, I feel great.

Musk, did you use some kind of anti-aging serum or something?

Diamandis, this is our "Longevity Express," and we are making progress towards that goal. You are on that path too. I think in our last conversation, you started to embrace the idea of extending lifespan.

Musk, to some extent, yes. I don't know if we want everyone to live forever, but I think extending "healthy lifespan," rather than going through a long period of aging and drooling all the time, sounds like a good idea. We want to avoid that situation.

Diamandis, first of all, congratulations on the collaboration between SpaceX and xAI. It's a brilliant move that will power humanity's first "Dyson Cloud." I'm curious, what is your timeline for launching these data centers? How much bandwidth do you think you can achieve in the first year? Please let us know about the speed at which you are achieving this goal.

Musk, SpaceX is currently in a quiet period, and I can't disclose information that might cause trouble.

Diamandis, okay, let's not talk about that then. I understand, but I'm looking forward to that speed.

This Monday, we spoke here with Eric Schmidt and a head of another hyperscale computing (cloud services) company. I won't mention who it is, but I'm curious, what stage do you think we are currently at in terms of AI's "recursive self-improvement"? Have we reached it? Do you think Grok is currently undergoing recursive self-improvement? How is it happening? What is the timeline for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Superintelligent AI (ASI)? Please give us a rough overview.

Musk, I think we have been in the recursive self-improvement stage for a while now. If you mean fully automated recursive self-improvement without human involvement, is that what you mean?

Diamandis, yes, I mean in terms of AI software.

Musk, the human involvement in the process of recursive self-improvement is indeed gradually decreasing. Each new generation of models is built upon the previous generation. This has largely happened, but full automation has not yet been achieved. Perhaps by the end of this year, at the latest by next year.

Diamandis, do you think there will be an intelligent "hard takeoff" (explosive development) by then?

Musk, we are currently in a hard takeoff.

Diamandis, okay.

Musk, it's happening now.

Diamandis, yes.

Musk, at this stage, when I go to bed at night, AI makes a significant breakthrough; by the time I wake up, there is another breakthrough.

Diamandis, indeed.

Musk, frankly, it's hard to keep up with the pace. It really is a bit dizzying

Diamandis I think many dizzying breakthroughs are also brought by you.

Musk Grok is currently developing very well. It is the best in certain metrics. For example, it is the best at predicting things, which can be said to be the best measure of intelligence. The new version of Grok is outstanding.

We are currently lagging behind in programming capabilities. The reason I was late just now is that I just attended a company-wide meeting on programming, sorting out all the work that needs to be done to catch up and surpass our competitors in programming, and I believe we can do it. I think we can achieve this goal by mid-year.

Additionally, I believe people do not fully understand how immense intelligence will be in the future, or the extent to which it will surpass human intelligence to the point of being incomprehensible.

You can imagine a scenario: Suppose the energy we utilize is a million times more than the current electricity consumption on Earth, that would still be only about one-millionth of the solar energy output. Essentially, if you expand the U.S. economy a million times, the energy it consumes would still be just a small part of solar energy. If we truly calculate on the scale of solar energy, even if you expand the current economy and electricity consumption by about a million times, you would still be utilizing only one-millionth of solar energy.

But what would an economy or intelligence that uses a million times more electricity than the entire current civilization look like? What would it think? What would it do? That would be a very grand vision. The challenge we face is that even just vaguely understanding that level of immense intelligence is very difficult. But it can certainly solve all the problems you can think of.

Diamandis Yes, it's like a long journey. You might think it sounds a bit ridiculous, but I really appreciate that relentless optimism.

Musk I see you are monetizing "hope." You have kept the phrase "monetizing hope" in mind, which is quite interesting.

Diamandis That's thanks to Grok. That was Grok's marketing advice to me when you were harshly criticizing me.

Musk Right? So you are monetizing hope. However, you were also monetizing pain before.

Diamandis That's for sure.

Musk When artificial intelligence and robots increase economic output by several orders of magnitude, that is a level we cannot even imagine.

Diamandis We are likely to become the minority of intelligence on this planet in a very short time, then a very small minority, and finally become an insignificant minority.

Musk Yes. Not only on Earth, but throughout the solar system. Because if you only develop intelligence on Earth, the best result, which is the energy that intelligence can utilize, is only about one-billionth of solar energy. If you are limited to Earth, that is your best outcome.

Diamandis That is the portion of energy we can intercept, right?

Musk Yes. The Earth receives only a small fraction of the energy from the Sun, which is the vast majority of energy that exists in the universe and that we can access. So in reality, the intelligence of the entire solar system will be many orders of magnitude higher than that on Earth.

Diamandis Elon, may I ask a question? How far into the future can you see? How many years into the future can you make reasonable predictions right now?

Musk It's hard to accurately predict the path of the future. Many things often present as an S-curve, or a series of S-curves. It starts off slowly, then grows exponentially, then enters a linear region, and finally becomes logarithmic growth (growth slows down).

This is roughly what I see in the breakthroughs of artificial intelligence. For example, after a breakthrough occurs, it will follow an S-curve, which seems to grow infinitely, but then the returns will show logarithmic decay until the next breakthrough occurs. Therefore, the progress of artificial intelligence is basically a series of overlapping and interconnected S-curves.

Diamandis There was a time when you could perhaps predict the situation for the next ten or twenty years. What are your thoughts now?

Musk What I'm about to say may sound crazy.

Diamandis That's okay. Because you have always been an excellent audience for our bold predictions.

Musk Yes, I want to say that in 10 years, the economy will reach ten times its current size or even larger.

Diamandis Yes. You have indeed said that in just over five years from now, GDP will experience triple-digit growth, and the economy will reach ten times its current size. But regarding your predictive ability...

Musk I think a tenfold growth in about ten years is actually a fairly conservative prediction. Unless something like a third world war happens that disrupts these plans. But without a third world war, if the current trends continue, I would say the economy will grow tenfold in ten years.

Diamandis I like that statement. Can you give us an example?

Musk Humans will establish bases on the Moon.

Diamandis Yes. And we will have humans...

Musk Landing on Mars.

Diamandis We will also build mass drivers on the Moon.

Musk I think so. I believe we will have mass drivers on the Moon within ten years.

Diamandis That's great. Gerard K. O'Neill's vision for space is coming to fruition.

At this year's "Abundance Summit," we had four robots on stage together. I'm looking forward to Optimus. I'm curious about the timeline for Optimus 3, especially when I can buy one or two? When do you expect Optimus to be commercially available? Or will you adopt a leasing model?

Musk We are currently in the final stages of completing Optimus Generation 3. It will be the most advanced robot in the world, and no other robot can compare. In fact, I haven't seen any robot demonstration as impressive as Optimus Generation 3. Frankly, there may be such robots out there, or they may be classified, but I haven't seen them. Of course, I have to ensure that what I say can be moderately public.

Diamandis We are live streaming this conversation on the X platform.

Musk Okay, that's already very public.

Diamandis Yes.

Musk I think we will start producing Optimus Generation 3 this summer, but the initial production capacity will be very slow. The number of units manufactured will follow a classic S-curve over time, and we expect to reach mass production sometime next year. After that, following Optimus Generation 4, we will accelerate the design iterations. Next year, I might try to release a new robot design every year and improve the design of the robot each year.

Diamandis When I visited the Gigafactory with Dave Bondi, it was an extraordinary experience. Tesla's factory spans 15.5 million square feet. Then you mentioned that you would also build 9.5 million square feet for Optimus there, which is amazing.

Musk The area numbers are roughly like that.

Diamandis It must be like that.

Musk That would be quite nice. It will be a completely new factory design, distinct from other factories.

Diamandis How far are we from "robots making robots"? You have automated most of the processes in the Gigafactory, with humans playing a very small role. Will robots take over the roles currently played by humans in manufacturing?

Musk We still have many human employees involved in manufacturing. Those directly employed by Tesla, working on the front lines to produce products, or the people in the factory, are either manufacturing products or managing those who manufacture products. There are about 100,000 of them. So we have a lot of employees. Tesla's total headcount is around 150,000, with an average of two-thirds of them working in some capacity in the factory. There may be another one to two million people at our suppliers.

So the number of people involved is quite large. We expect that Tesla's output per person will become very high. Therefore, we have no plans for layoffs; in fact, we will be increasing our workforce. But the output per person will become absurdly high.

Diamandis To an incredible extent.

When you came to participate in the podcast, we discussed the concept of "sustainable abundance." You emphasized that we are entering an era of "Universal High Income (UHI)," which has gone beyond the discussion of "Universal Basic Income (UBI)." I wonder what your thoughts are on how we can achieve this goal? Do you have further reflections on this?

In addition, we previously talked about a potential period of social unrest lasting about two to five years. During this time, until we achieve "demonetization" and deflation, and thus reach the stage of Universal High Income (UHI), it may be necessary to issue many relief checks similar to those during the pandemic. Do you have more thoughts on this? People really need that kind of hope and vision.

Musk To be clear, I think we should not be complacent. We do need to be cautious because the outcomes in the future are varied, and not all outcomes are positive. But for now, I agree with your view that the future is likely to be bright. There is about an 80% chance, or even more likely, that it will be very good.

I do believe we will achieve universal income. Essentially, it means giving money directly to people. Because the output of goods and services will far exceed the money supply, deflation will actually occur. Deflation is the ratio of the output of goods and services to the money supply. Therefore, if the growth rate of goods and services exceeds the growth rate of the money supply (I predict this will happen), then deflation will occur.

Diamandis Yes. Many people will start new companies and compete with each other, which will drive prices down, increasing variability and intensifying deflation at an accelerating pace.

Musk Essentially, artificial intelligence and robots will produce massive amounts of products and provide a multitude of services, to the point where humans will actually have nothing they need to do themselves. There will always be a moment for humans when their desires are satisfied.

So back to my previous example: If the scale of the economy is a million times larger than the U.S. economy, then all human desires would have long been satisfied. Even if our economy were a thousand times larger than it is now, you might have already satisfied every material need that people can think of.

Diamandis So, do you think the value of money will significantly decline? Will we enter a post-capitalist era?

Musk Yes, I believe that at some point in the future, money will no longer have real significance.

Diamandis So just as you are about to become...

Musk The future societal form may resemble what is described in Iain Banks' science fiction series "Culture." I believe future artificial intelligence will not use human currency; it will only care about energy and quality, which means power and tonnage.

Diamandis That sounds a bit ironic, right? Just as you are about to become a super-rich billionaire with trillions of dollars, money starts to lose its value.

Musk Pretty much. All these wealth figures actually only represent the equity stake in the companies I have founded. This money is not sitting in a bank account. Strictly speaking, I only own a portion of these companies. These companies are doing a lot of useful things, and as they create value, their valuations continue to grow, and the equity stake translates into my total wealth, making that number look very high

Diamandis: Someone once interviewed me and asked what your motivation is. What drives you? I answered that Elon’s motivation is to solve problems. He is dedicated to making the world a better place by solving the biggest challenges time and again. If someone else could solve these problems, he wouldn’t have to step in personally, but the issue is that no one else is stepping up to solve them. So, I just want to thank you.

Musk: You’re welcome.

Diamandis: I’m curious, do you think democratic systems and modern institutions can keep up with this impending “supersonic tsunami”? Will they be swept away by the tide of the times? Will they completely collapse? How should we respond?

Musk: There’s a reason this is called the “singularity.” It’s hard to predict what will happen inside the singularity. The symbol of Grok is the singularity.

Diamandis: I love it. By the way, the symbol behind you is beautiful, very magnificent.

Musk: Thank you. That halo symbolizes the mass and light around a black hole that is falling into it. It’s hard to know what will happen inside the singularity, but it will be very interesting. I am very confident that life in the future will be incredibly exciting. Frankly, I believe that artificial intelligence and robotics are also our only way to solve the budget deficit and avoid national bankruptcy. Your perspective has influenced me to become more optimistic. We really should be more optimistic.

Diamandis: Thank you, buddy.

Musk: I wasn’t always an optimist; I may have been too immersed in the negative side.

Diamandis: Combining optimism with realism is always beneficial.

Musk: Absolutely right. You can’t be complacent, nor can you just blindly assume that everything will go smoothly; instead, you have to work to make things go in a good direction. What I mean is that amazing things will definitely happen in the future. If we have highly dexterous and extremely intelligent bionic robots, that means everyone on Earth could receive better medical care than the wealthiest people in today’s world. By the way, others say I am the richest person, but I think those monarchs are actually much richer than I am.

For example, I had to undergo three neck surgeries because the first two were botched. And my back still hurts a bit. I wonder if artificial intelligence can help solve back pain? If it can, that would be a huge victory. And I believe it can. Back pain is really uncomfortable. The torment of back pain leads to poor sleep quality, and people become irritable.

Diamandis: This morning, David Sinclair came to our stage. He is conducting clinical human trials on epigenetic reprogramming. A recent paper indicates that this therapy can achieve joint repair. Therefore, back pain might be one of the conditions it can eliminate

Musk That would be incredible. Of course, if we could just solve the back pain issue, the average happiness of humanity would greatly improve. Because when it comes to back pain, it's not a matter of if you'll get it, but when. The human body does have some design flaws.

Diamandis I've always wanted to invite you to the Fountain Life Medical Center in Dallas. We can help you. You must come when you have time.

Musk What kind of equipment do you have there? I understand you have MRI and CT scans, but what do you do with the scan results afterward?

Diamandis I would be happy to send you the list of services; I'll DM it to you. You're really too generous. Next up on stage with me is another great "moonshot" entrepreneur, Ben Lamm. He runs Colossal, a company focused on "bringing extinct species back to life," and is researching the revival of the woolly mammoth and 15 other species. I heard you want a mini mammoth; is that true?

Musk Yes, I think having a mini mammoth as a pet would be really cool. That would be epic. Just imagining those furry, adorable little guys running around and trumpeting is exciting.

Diamandis Okay, I'll say a few words to Ben about that. That's amazing.

Musk Can someone actually build a Jurassic Park in real life? If it were built, even with the risk of death, I would definitely want to see it; that would be so cool.

Diamandis I think if anyone can do it, it would be Ben Lamm and his Colossal company. He is creating life through engineering technology. Recently someone asked him if he could create a Pikachu, and he said maybe.

Musk Yes, Jurassic World or something like that would definitely be awesome.

Diamandis Okay, I'll ask him. Elon, thank you so much for being here and sharing with us. Thank you, my friend. Let's give a round of applause for Elon Musk! (Background sound: Nothing can stop us now)