In the past six days, Iran's oil exports have exceeded pre-war levels!

Despite the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's crude oil exports have increased, in stark contrast to the forced supply cuts by its Gulf neighbors.

On March 11, according to data from tanker tracking company Kpler, Iran's average daily crude oil loading has risen to 2.1 million barrels over the past six days, up from 2 million barrels in February (before the US-Iran conflict). Meanwhile, Gulf oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq have been forced to cut supplies due to blocked shipping routes and are urgently seeking alternative routes, with the geopolitical rift on the supply side accelerating the differentiation effect.

Oil prices have been highly volatile due to the US-Iran situation. On Monday, market panic pushed Brent crude oil to nearly $120, a four-year high; it then quickly fell back after Trump signaled that "the war will end soon."

Currently, concerns about supply disruptions have not dissipated. JP Morgan estimates that if the Strait remains blocked for two weeks, the Gulf region will see a daily reduction of about 3.8 million barrels of crude oil supply, equivalent to over 3% of global total production. According to media reports citing sources, the G7 is urgently discussing the largest strategic oil reserve release plan in history to cope with potential shocks.

Clouds Over Hormuz, Iran's Export Channels Remain Operational

According to tanker tracking agency Kpler, since the outbreak of the conflict, seven tankers have completed crude oil loading off the coast of Iran, with at least two of the latest operations located in the Persian Gulf. Despite the deteriorating security situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's crude oil export channels remain operational.

Since the US-Israeli coalition launched airstrikes, Iran has repeatedly threatened to attack vessels passing through the Strait, causing many commercial ships to reroute or delay their journeys. Statistics from the International Maritime Organization show that within less than two weeks of the conflict's outbreak, ten vessels near the Strait of Hormuz have been attacked by Iranian forces, resulting in at least seven crew members' deaths.

An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson warned in an interview with CNBC that tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz "must be very careful." In response, Trump stated in an interview with Fox News that stranded vessels should "have the courage" to force their way through, claiming "there's nothing to fear; they don't have a navy, we've sunk all their ships."

Iran Explores Alternative Export Routes

According to CNBC, Iran has resumed crude oil loading operations at the Jask oil and gas terminal located south of the Strait of Hormuz along the coast of the Gulf of Oman. This move is seen as Tehran's attempt to bypass the Strait and explore alternative export routes amid the current geopolitical tensions.

The Jask facility is Iran's only crude oil export channel that does not require passage through the Strait of Hormuz and can directly reach the Gulf of Oman. However, its operational efficiency is far lower than that of the country's main export hub—the Kharg Island terminal located near Hormuz Island.

Samir Madani, co-founder of tanker tracking agency TankerTrackers, stated that currently, an Iranian vessel is loading about 2 million barrels of crude oil at Jask, marking the fifth loading operation at this location in five years. However, he pointed out that loading a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) at Jask can take up to 10 days, while it only takes one to two days at Kharg Island Kpler analyst Nhway Khin Soe believes that the reactivation of Jask shows that Tehran is evaluating alternative routes, but whether it can become a sustainable export channel remains in doubt. Madani bluntly stated that the facility "has certain value in domestic publicity, but its logistical advantages are very limited."

The tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have not eased, and the global energy market still faces ongoing supply risks. Analysts believe that the evolution of geopolitical conflicts remains a core variable influencing future oil price trends