Crazy investment in AI chips and HBM! Asian semiconductor giants are expected to spend $136 billion this year, a year-on-year increase of 25%

A new wave of capital expenditure is sweeping through the Asian semiconductor industry. According to TrendForce data, major semiconductor manufacturers in regions such as Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan are expected to collectively exceed $136 billion in capital expenditures by 2026, representing an approximate 25% increase from 2025, with TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix leading in expenditure scale.

The core driving force behind this round of expansion is the sustained demand for AI chips and high bandwidth memory (HBM). TSMC plans to lead the industry with a historic capital expenditure of up to $56 billion, while Samsung and SK Hynix will focus the majority of their new capacity on HBM to seize a dominant position in AI server memory.

The wave of expenditure has spread from first-tier giants to second-tier manufacturers. Taiwanese specialty memory suppliers Winbond Electronics and Nanya Technology have successively announced significant increases in their annual capital budgets, with the latter reaching a historic high, reflecting strong market expectations for a recovery in the memory industry cycle.

For investors, this wave of intensive capital commitments means that equipment procurement orders will continue to increase, and the semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging supply chains are expected to benefit continuously. However, at the same time, the concentrated release of capacity has also raised concerns about potential oversupply risks.

TSMC Leads the Charge, Accelerating Wafer Foundry Expansion

As the leading foundry, TSMC is the biggest driver of this round of capital expenditure expansion.

According to reports from the Commercial Times and Central News Agency, TSMC's capital expenditure plan for this year is between $52 billion and $56 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 27% to 37%, setting a historical high for the company. Of this, 70% to 80% will be allocated to advanced processes, while the remaining portion will be directed towards specialty processes and advanced packaging.

This budget scale far exceeds the industry average, highlighting TSMC's dominant position in the AI logic chip foundry market and reflecting that customer bookings for advanced process capacity are deeply tied to TSMC's expansion pace.

Samsung and SK Hynix Bet on HBM, Focusing Memory Expansion on High-End

In the memory sector, both Samsung and SK Hynix are ramping up their investments, but both companies are shifting their expansion focus to HBM rather than traditional DRAM. According to TrendForce's forecast, Samsung's capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase of about 3.7%; SK Hynix's increase is expected to be more significant, reaching 24%.

Korean media EBN reported that Samsung plans to increase DRAM output by about 20% in 2026, with expansion concentrated at the P4 factory in Pyeongtaek, but the new capacity will primarily support the production of 10nm sixth-generation (1C) DRAM to meet HBM4 production demands.

Regarding SK Hynix, EBN reported that the company has completed preparations for the expansion of the Cheongju M15X factory, with a significant proportion of the new capacity also allocated to HBM production lines.

According to a report from The Elec at the end of January this year, SK Hynix has raised its expansion plan for 1C DRAM, with industry insiders estimating that the company's monthly output is expected to reach 170,000 to 200,000 wafers by the end of the first quarter of 2027, nearly double the original target of 90,000 wafers In the NAND field, the alliance formed by Kioxia and SanDisk is showing a more aggressive expansion posture. According to TrendForce's forecast, the capital expenditure of this joint venture could increase by as much as 40% by 2026, indicating that both parties are vigorously promoting NAND capacity expansion.

Second-tier memory manufacturers follow suit, enhancing signals of industry recovery

It is noteworthy that the current expansion of capital expenditure is not limited to leading companies; second-tier memory manufacturers in Taiwan are also following suit, releasing clear signals of a recovery in industry prosperity.

According to Nikkei News, Winbond Electronics, known for NOR flash memory and custom DRAM, plans to invest NT$42.1 billion in 2026, approximately eight times last year's expenditure. The company also expects that the average selling price of its products will rise by more than 30% in the first quarter of 2026.

The actions of Nanya Technology, the world's fifth-largest DRAM manufacturer, are also noteworthy. According to technology media TechNews, Nanya Technology announced a capital expenditure budget of NT$50 billion for 2026, a record high, with a new factory expected to reach a target capacity of 20,000 wafers per month by the first half of 2028.

The concentrated investment by second-tier manufacturers further confirms the market's optimistic judgment on the upward cycle of memory, and brings broader order growth expectations for related equipment and material suppliers.