Insurance + Protection, Trump orders to secure maritime trade in the Gulf region, crude oil narrows gains during trading

U.S. President Donald Trump announced dual measures to address the energy supply crisis triggered by the U.S. military strikes against Iran, promising to provide political risk insurance to commercial vessels passing through the Gulf region and to deploy the Navy to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary.

On Tuesday, December 3rd, during the U.S. stock market's midday session, Trump posted on his social media platform that he had instructed the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and financial security guarantees for "all maritime trade passing through the Gulf, especially energy trade, at a 'very reasonable price'," with a focus on energy trade.

Trump stated that the aforementioned guarantees would be open to all shipping companies, saying, "All shipping companies can obtain this insurance."

Trump also indicated that "if necessary, the U.S. Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible," asserting that "the U.S. will ensure the free flow of energy to the world," and touted the strength of the U.S. economy and military, claiming that "more actions are coming."

Following the announcement, U.S. oil prices quickly narrowed their gains during the midday session. However, market participants remained skeptical about whether these measures could restore normal oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz in the short term.

During the European trading session, WTI crude oil futures, which had approached $78 per barrel and risen nearly 9.5% during the day, fell back to around $71.70, with a daily gain of less than 0.7%. The global benchmark Brent crude oil, which had also risen nearly 9.5% during the European trading session, retreated to $78.54, up 1% from Monday's close.

War Impacts Maritime Arteries, Crude Oil Surges Over 10% in Two Days

Since the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on Saturday, February 28, the Middle East has descended into widespread chaos, effectively halting oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz. This strait is known as the "throat" of global energy, accounting for about one-fifth of the world's energy supply transport.

Since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, international crude oil futures have surged continuously on Monday and Tuesday, with prices rising over 10% on Monday and nearly 9.5% on Tuesday. As of Tuesday's close, U.S. oil and Brent oil had accumulated gains of over 14% and 12%, respectively, over the past two days.

Several of the world's largest maritime insurance mutual organizations have withdrawn war risk coverage for vessels entering the Persian Gulf. While some shipowners can obtain alternative coverage from other insurance companies, premiums have skyrocketed.

Media reports indicate that sources revealed Trump's announcement of these protective measures was partly in response to concerns about the deterioration of the insurance market, which could drive up oil prices.

Iran Warns Vessels Not to Navigate the "War State" Strait of Hormuz

Iranian media reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that the Strait of Hormuz is in a state of war, and vessels passing through it "may face risks from missiles or uncontrolled drones."The statement warned international shipping companies not to pass through the waterway. "The Strait of Hormuz is completely under the surveillance and control of the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy." The statement noted that more than ten oil tankers have been attacked by Iran for ignoring warnings.

According to CCTV News, late on March 2 local time, an advisor to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and Iran will strike all vessels attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Insurance Mechanism Yet to be Clarified, Implementation May Face Delays

Trump did not elaborate on the specific operational mechanism of the insurance provided by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) in his statement. The agency typically mobilizes private capital for developing countries and reduces investment risks in impoverished nations, which is quite different from directly underwriting commercial shipping war risks.

Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and former White House official, stated that this announcement may help boost market confidence, but both the escort and insurance mechanisms will require some time to implement. "The U.S. military first needs to suppress Iran's mine-laying capabilities and its ability to use anti-ship cruise missiles and drones to attack vessels."

In an email, Bob McNally stated: "Assuming the Iranian government decides to continue resisting, even with the announced insurance and escort plans, a full restoration of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to take weeks, not hours or days."

Rising Oil Prices Have Become Political Pressure, White House Coordinates Response Across Departments

The rise in energy prices has created political pressure on the Trump administration. U.S. domestic gasoline retail prices have reached a nearly five-month high, posing potential political risks as the midterm elections approach in November.

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated earlier this week that the Trump administration had anticipated the rise in energy prices, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Energy Secretary Brouillette will jointly launch a relief plan. Trump is expected to meet with Mnuchin and Brouillette at the White House on Tuesday to discuss this issue