The effects of the "tariff war" in its first year are not significant! The United States saw record highs in both imports and goods trade deficit last year

In the first year of significant tariff increases by the United States, imports rose instead of falling, and the goods trade deficit reached a new high, indicating that tariffs have limited impact on narrowing the trade gap.

According to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on February 19, 2025, U.S. imports rose to $4.334 trillion, with the goods trade deficit expanding to $1.241 trillion, setting a historical record. The total trade deficit for goods and services for the year was $901.5 billion, only slightly narrowing from $903.5 billion in 2024.

Monthly data also weakened again at the end of the year. In December 2025, the U.S. goods and services trade deficit rose to $70.3 billion, significantly expanding from $53 billion in November, and it has increased significantly month-on-month for the second consecutive month, exceeding analysts' expectations in a Wall Street Journal survey.

One of the key reasons for the Trump administration's tariff increases was to help reduce the trade deficit. The CCTV News client cited the views of the chief economist of the investment strategy department at RJF Financial Group, stating that the deficit performance in 2025 indicates that tariffs have little impact on the overall deficit level.

Goods Trade Deficit Breaks Record

In the goods trade sector, which was the focus of the Trump administration, 2025 delivered results contrary to the policy's original intent. Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce shows that the goods trade deficit reached $1.241 trillion, an increase of 2.1% from the previous year, setting a historical record.

This result highlights that even in the face of significantly increased tariff barriers, demand from U.S. businesses and consumers for imported goods remains strong.

The total value of goods imports for the year was $3.44 trillion, an increase of about 4% from 2024. This growth rate indicates that the scale of U.S. procurement of goods from overseas has not undergone substantial changes due to the transition from the Biden administration to the Trump administration.

On the export side, the total value of U.S. exports in 2025 was $3.432 trillion, a year-on-year increase of about 6%, with growth slightly higher than that of imports.

Significant Surge in December Deficit

The monthly data for December revealed a new round of severe fluctuations in trade patterns. In that month, U.S. imports grew by 3.6% to $357.6 billion, with a surge in digital device purchases being the main driving force.

Imports of computer parts increased by $3.4 billion, and imports of telecommunications equipment grew by $1.3 billion, contributing to an overall increase of $10.2 billion in goods imports.

On the export side, there was a decline, with exports slightly dropping to $287.3 billion for the month. Abnormal fluctuations in international gold trading were one of the main reasons, as U.S. gold exports decreased by $7.1 billion compared to November.

In recent months, the volatility of precious metal trading in financial markets has increased, leading to a rise in the physical cross-border flow of gold, significantly impacting trade data.

Year of Severe Fluctuations

In 2025, the U.S. trade landscape experienced a rollercoaster of fluctuations. After Trump won the election at the end of 2024, the trade deficit soared in the following months, as companies rushed to import foreign goods ahead of the anticipated implementation of tariffs.

When the first wave of large-scale tariff measures was actually implemented in April, the trade deficit sharply contracted, with the trade deficit in October dropping to its lowest level of the year However, as some tariff measures were withdrawn and businesses adapted to the new trade mechanisms, the trade deficit in the second half of the year rose back to a more common level. This volatility reflects the market's sensitive response to policy changes and the strategy of businesses to adjust their procurement pace to cope with tariff impacts.

Effectiveness of Tariff Policies in Doubt

Overall, the tariff measures in 2025 failed to effectively deter Americans from reducing imports. The scale of goods and services procured from overseas remained almost unchanged compared to the levels during the Biden administration.

The trade deficit in goods and services only narrowed by $2 billion, a decrease of less than 0.3%, and this slight change was more due to export growth slightly outpacing import growth.

Data indicates that the fundamental structure of the United States as the world's largest consumer market and net importer has not fundamentally changed due to the drastic adjustments in trade policies. Tariffs have increased import costs, but the dependence of consumers and businesses on imported goods is difficult to reverse in the short term.