"Deposit migration" accelerates - The difference between the growth rate of household deposits and M2 growth rate turns negative for the first time in 7 and a half years
The report from Galaxy Securities shows that in January, the growth rate of household deposits dropped to 7.18%, a significant decrease from the previous value of 9.68%. The difference between the growth rate of household deposits and M2 growth rate turned negative for the first time, reaching -1.82 percentage points, marking a return to negative values after seven and a half years. The rolling sum of new non-bank deposits over 12 months has risen rapidly. CAITONG SECURITIES pointed out that this portion of funds is mainly flowing into wealth management products rather than simply entering the market as deposits
Galaxy Securities:
We observed the performance of three indicators related to the migration of household deposits in January:
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The growth rate of household deposits rapidly declined this month, and we estimate the growth rate of household deposits at 7.18% (previous value 9.68%);
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The difference between the growth rate of household deposits and the growth rate of M2 is -1.82 percentage points (previous value 1.18 percentage points), marking the first negative value in 7 and a half years (the last negative value range was from June 2015 to June 2018);
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The rolling sum of new non-bank deposits over the past 12 months is rapidly increasing.
Caitong Securities:
This portion of funds cannot simply be explained as deposits entering the market; wealth management is the main flow.
