Dan Bin: We are still in a year of significant development for artificial intelligence. Even if stocks decline this year, the bubble is just noise. Focus on the supply chains of NVIDIA, Google, and Tesla

On the evening of February 4th, Dan Bin, Chairman of Dongfang Hongyuan, appeared on CCTV Finance's "Investment Trends" program to share insights on market investments in the era of artificial intelligence.

The investment notebook representative summarized the key points as follows:

1. Not learning may lead to missing an era.

Looking back at the eras of electronic hardware, the internet, and mobile internet, each era has significant opportunities. ... Tencent has increased by more than 600 times, and NetEase has increased by thousands of times; these are just individual cases. From a global perspective, many companies have emerged that have increased by thousands of times in each era.

From the perspective of financial history, in the past 100 years, only 3% of publicly listed companies in the United States contributed the vast majority of profits, while 97% were not outstanding.

This process is destined for a few companies to create value while the majority destroy value.

2. Currently, for both the Chinese and global economies, the same applies to the United States, which mainly relies on industries such as artificial intelligence and biopharmaceuticals, including commercial aerospace and the upcoming Starlink IPO.

Can these new growth areas offset negative feedback from other sectors? If so, the economy will thrive. Therefore, investing funds in these directions theoretically has a greater chance of success.

1. For ordinary people and general institutions, the risk of missing an era is far greater than the risk of worrying about bubbles. Looking back at past eras, very few people made real money; many simply missed the era.

2. My personal judgment is that we are still in a period of great development. But why do many people miss out? Because of the noise of bubbles. I view it as noise; even if there is a decline this year, it is still noise.

Because in a longer cycle, this year may just be a year of accumulation.

1. My personal suggestion is to set aside the market and not discuss bull or bear markets. There are also great stocks in bear markets.

We need to understand the industry. Because with a large amount of capital and resources, many industries will inevitably emerge, coupled with the advantage of Chinese engineers. With over 11 million university graduates each year, if half study engineering, this energy will explode once given the opportunity.

We are very clear that we believe artificial intelligence is a ten-year bull market, so we will stick to this direction, and this year is no exception.

......... For example, the Nvidia supply chain, Google supply chain, Tesla supply chain, etc., and focusing on profitability is very important.

Here are the highlights compiled by the investment notebook representative (WeChat ID: touzizuoyeben) to share with everyone:

Looking Back at 2025: The Year Artificial Intelligence Went from Start to Flourish

Host: In 2026, will A-share investment prioritize themes or focus on value investing? When discussing the capital market, we often need to review and look ahead. Please summarize the characteristics of the capital market in 2025.

Dan Bin: 2025 will undoubtedly be a crucial year in the era of artificial intelligence. We see that many prominent events occurred in the field of artificial intelligence that year For example, the DeepSeek moment in January had a huge impact on the entire industry and on China. We suddenly gained confidence that China's progress in artificial intelligence is very rapid, which has also sparked a wave of related companies in China.

Of course, from a global perspective, DeepSeek represents a significant advancement, but the entire industry is in a state of comprehensive progress, with competitions rising and falling. This includes OpenAI and Google, especially Google's rise at the end of the year.

American capital giants like Berkshire and Soros have invested in companies representative of the artificial intelligence era—Google. This is also a footnote for 2025. It can be said that 2025 will be a year of the emergence of artificial intelligence from its inception to its flourishing.

Host: From concept to flourishing, in terms of application, it is increasingly...

Dan Bin: Yes. We said last year was such a process, and this year is the Year of the Horse, which is likely to become a year where AI applications gallop forward and rise and fall.

We see popular directions at the beginning of the year, including brain-computer interfaces and Starlink. At the end of last year, the most significant manifestation of artificial intelligence in applications—autonomous driving—was achieved. This is similar to the "iPhone moment."

Looking back at 2025, there will be many moments that could be very important in human history, such as at the end of the year when Model 3 owners first achieve full autonomous driving across the United States, which is indeed the "iPhone moment" of autonomous driving.

Also, the robots at the CES conference in the U.S. earlier this year, from Boston Dynamics, can rotate 360 degrees, representing a new breakthrough in the field of robotics.

In fact, in 2025 and 2026, humanity is in a historical phase of rapid, exponential growth. As ordinary people, we continue our daily lives and work, but looking at the global capital markets or technological advancements, they are actually thriving.

A few companies create value; not learning may cause one to miss an era

Host: In the A-share market, sectors such as robotics, AI, computing power, and innovative drugs have seen individual stocks rise by 10 times or 20 times by the fourth quarter, including commercial aerospace.

In my impression, such increases in individual stocks in the A-share market have typically occurred in a comprehensive bull market environment, whether over six months, a year, or two years. I have never encountered a situation like 2025, where certain sectors can rise so much; is this structural? What do you think about this question?

Dan Bin: Regarding investment, taking Dongfang Hongyuan as an example, we have had several sell standards in the past: one is overvaluation, the second is the deterioration of the company, and the third is discovering better companies.

The same amount of money has an opportunity cost; would it be better to switch to other industries?

From this perspective, for both the Chinese and global economies, including the U.S., it mainly relies on industries like artificial intelligence and biopharmaceuticals, such as commercial aerospace and the upcoming listing of Starlink.

Can these new growth areas offset the negative feedback from other sectors? If so, the economy will thrive. Therefore, investing funds in these directions theoretically has a greater chance of winning.

The capital market is smart; it is a game of real money. In this context, funds will naturally flow in these directions, whether in the U.S., China, or most of the global funds will flow here Of course, there are other factors, such as geopolitical issues. In the past two years, in addition to bank stocks, traditional safe-haven assets like gold have also performed very well, marking a significant bull market. Since 2020, gold, silver, and related resource assets have undergone many unimaginable changes, and the asset classes have also changed significantly.

For investors, the ability to iterate is very important; it requires a sharper insight into changes in the world, asset changes, and shifts in investment direction. Without learning, one is likely to miss an era.

Looking back at the eras of electronic hardware, the internet, and mobile internet, each era has had significant opportunities. It's not just five or ten times; for example, the internet giant Tencent, listed in Hong Kong, has increased by more than six hundred (times).

There are also companies like NetEase that have increased by thousands of times. This is just an individual case.

Globally, many companies have emerged in each era that have increased by thousands of times.

From the perspective of financial history, over the past 100 years, only 3% of publicly listed companies in the United States have contributed the vast majority of profits, while 97% are not outstanding.

This process is destined for a few companies to create value while the majority destroy value. Therefore, the number of delisted companies in the U.S. exceeds that of listed companies.

Of course, China is at a different historical stage, making delisting more difficult. Although we have implemented a registration system, it is actually similar to an approval system or even an invitation system, and the operational methods differ. However, the global rules may eventually apply to China as well.

Among China's more than 5,000 listed companies, it is likely that only a few will contribute the majority of profits. Currently, there may be a culture that prefers small-cap stocks, as, at least until now, Chinese blue-chip stocks have not performed well, mainly focusing on small-cap stocks.

The risk of missing an era is far greater than the risk of worrying about bubbles.

Host: Although you have been emphasizing embracing AI for the past two years, you are still stressing it this year. However, there are increasing comments both overseas and domestically about industry bubbles, especially regarding infrastructure construction bubbles.

Two questions. First, how do you judge bubbles? Second, if AI is a ten-year major trend, will 2026 be a period of accumulation or will new highlights emerge? For example, I recently saw that a weekend conference call by researchers on AI applications was exceptionally popular. How do you judge this trend?

Dan Bin: Personally, I have been emphasizing a viewpoint in recent years: for ordinary people and general institutions, the risk of missing an era is far greater than the risk of worrying about bubbles. Looking back at past eras, very few people made money; many missed the era.

Host: Either miss the era or have an overly short-term judgment on trends.

We are still in a year of significant development, even if there is a decline this year, the bubble is just noise.

Dan Bin: Therefore, value investing and long-term investing are essentially industries with foresight. Investment compares: who can see far, see accurately, dare to take heavy positions, and can persist. At the same time, investing is also an industry that tries to avoid regrets. Many people do not align their actions with their knowledge.

Host: It's better to say less about this; it brings tears to the eyes.

Dan Bin: I personally judge that we are still in a year of significant development. But why do many people miss out? Because there is the noise of bubbles. I regard it as noise; even if there is a decline this year, it is still noise Because in a longer time frame, this year may just be a year of accumulation. If we only evaluate the short term, it's like assessing a fund manager by looking at just one or two years.

For example, last April, someone wrote an article titled "Dan Bin Doesn't Have Nine Lives," at that time the U.S. stock market was plummeting. If we only look at April, we indeed had a tough time. But looking back today, what do we see? Therefore, whether it's investing or observing social issues, it's best to have a longer span.

Host: At least look at five to ten years.

Dan Bin: Yes, of course, investing is an art of real money, unlike professors giving lectures, which end once they finish. They can correct their mistakes, but we cannot recover from ours.

Host: Actual losses cannot be recovered.

Dan Bin: Think about investing a large amount of money; if you encounter a major setback, your career might be over. Therefore, investment requires validating one's own judgment. Once confirmed, execute it, then accept it, and then optimize and fine-tune.

The era of artificial intelligence is different from the internet era; it's hard for one company to monopolize globally

Host: In the field of robotics, will there be new changes in investment logic by 2026?

For example, will there be a shift from emphasizing hardware to software? I have seen some reports that China's hardware industry chain iterates quickly and optimizes costs rapidly, with improvements in hardware components and applications of new materials. But in the software field, such as brain and cerebellum chips and internal software, the iteration seems slower. Is that the case?

Dan Bin: If we view electric vehicles as Transformers, Tesla has actually become completely autonomous. It has traveled over two thousand kilometers. This indicates rapid development.

Including the recent presentation by Jensen Huang from NVIDIA, who also provided technology for autonomous driving platforms. I believe the development is extremely fast.

Moreover, currently, a technology is not monopolized by one company; there are competitors. Everyone wants to become a mainstream company in this era, so the iteration speed is very fast.

In addition, there is competition between China and the U.S. China certainly hopes to win this artificial intelligence race, and the U.S. feels the same. The competition between nations is not limited to just these two countries.

In the internet era, one company could monopolize globally. But in the era of artificial intelligence, every country that possesses data is reluctant to share it with others. For example, Saudi Arabia also wants to maintain data sovereignty. Therefore, the competitive landscape of this era may differ from the past, presenting structural changes and opportunities.

As for bubbles, I suggest listening to the opinions of friends and economists, but more importantly, pay attention to the views of the chairpersons of contemporary major technology companies and giants.

Because they are like frontline investors, at the forefront. They possess a global perspective and top insights. There are also top scientists; for instance, a few days ago, I attended an event at Gaoshan Academy, where Professor Yang Peidong was present. He is one of the most likely Chinese scientists to win a Nobel Prize.

During our chat that evening, he mentioned that after this revolution, the next revolution is likely to be the photon revolution. Because light speed is faster and energy consumption is lower. Current GPUs consume a lot of energy, and in the next 10 to 15 years, photon technology may become more important. Therefore, to judge whether there is a bubble, we should listen to the views of top entrepreneurs and scientists who are on the front lines.

In the past 70 years, there has been a main theme every ten years; we need to pay close attention

Host: In the stock market, there is a saying: "No industry, no bull market." Taking A-shares as an example, when consumer goods were scarce, a commodity bull market emerged in 1996, with home appliance stocks like Changhong and Haier. That bull market might have been the first one experienced by our generation. After that, there were five golden flowers related to resources. Then came the internet bull market, the mobile internet bull market, and the new energy (lithium batteries, photovoltaics, wind power) bull market. Now we are entering the AI bull market. Each round of technological and industrial revolution brings about a cycle of a major bull market.

Dan Bin: Moreover, over the past 70 years, there has been a main line every ten years, which is crucial for investment. If investors do not closely follow the main lines of each decade over the past 70 years, they may miss out on once-in-a-decade opportunities.

Not discussing bull and bear markets, there are also big bull stocks in bear markets, clearly stating that artificial intelligence is a ten-year bull market

Host: We just hope it is a slow bull.

Dan Bin: Personally, I suggest setting aside the market and not discussing bull and bear markets. There are also big bull stocks in bear markets.

We need to understand the industry. Because of the large amount of capital and resources, many industries will inevitably emerge, coupled with the advantage of Chinese engineers. With over 11 million college graduates each year, if half of them study engineering, this energy will explode once given the opportunity.

We are very clear that we believe artificial intelligence is a ten-year bull market, so we will stick to this direction, and this year is no exception.

Host: I agree with the general direction. Can you break it down further? Many viewers and netizens may not be able to translate the concept into specific directions. Can you discuss it from an industry perspective?

Dan Bin: For example, we just mentioned the NVIDIA supply chain, the Google supply chain, the Tesla supply chain, etc., and it is also important to focus on profitability.

Source: Investment Workbook Pro, Author: Wang Li

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