Copper supply alarm sounded! Glencore's production will drop by 11% in 2025, with declining ore grades becoming a "hard injury."

Glencore stated on Thursday that its copper production for 2025 is projected to be 851,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, which is at the lower end of its previous forecast range. Although several mines are expected to see improvements in ore grades and recovery rates in the second half of the year, the overall annual performance remains constrained.

More notably, Glencore has lowered its copper production guidance for 2026 to between 810,000 and 870,000 tons, with the midpoint of 840,000 tons significantly down from the previous forecast of 930,000 tons. The adjustment in production is primarily attributed to declining ore grades at its Collahuasi mine in Chile and local water resource limitations.

Meanwhile, the company is currently in negotiations with Rio Tinto regarding the possibility of merging some or all of their businesses. This includes the potential for Rio Tinto Group to acquire Glencore entirely in stock. If the deal is reached, it would create the world's largest mining group with a market value exceeding $200 billion, with its copper production accounting for nearly 10% of global supply, having a profound impact on the medium to long-term supply landscape of the copper market and global industrial competition.

Copper prices reach historical highs, Glencore accelerates plans for 2035 production targets

Driven by the global low-carbon transition, AI infrastructure expansion, and defense industry demand, copper prices have surged to historical highs. The market generally expects further tightening on the supply side, providing support for maintaining a strong copper price trend.

As a major global copper producer, Glencore's production for 2025 is expected to decline year-on-year, primarily affected by declining ore grades and lower recovery rates, which are directly related to the phased adjustment of mining sequences.

To address long-term demand growth, Glencore plans to combine new mine constructions with the restart of existing mines, aiming to increase its annual copper production to 1.6 million tons by 2035, thereby strengthening its position in the critical mineral supply chain.

Key mineral production generally under pressure

Glencore's latest production data shows that its key metal for energy transition—cobalt—has seen a decline in production. The company's cobalt production last year was 36,100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. This business is concentrated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which supplies over 70% of the world's cobalt resources. Notably, the country has implemented a cobalt export quota system since October last year, and Glencore expects to export 22,800 tons of cobalt this year.

The production performance of other major metals varies: gold production decreased by 18% year-on-year; due to the completion of the acquisition of Elk Valley Resources, metallurgical coal production surged by 63% to 32.5 million tons; zinc production was 969,400 tons. Additionally, although thermal coal production is expected to slightly decline to 98 million tons in 2025, Glencore still maintains its position as a leading global producer and exporter of thermal coal