Accurately predicting potential bestsellers, reconstructing the global retail order, the report shows that Temu's global market share has caught up with Amazon

"Temu, the budget e-commerce platform under Pinduoduo Group, has matched Amazon's global cross-border market share." The Hong Kong South China Morning Post reported on the 20th that the latest survey report released by the International Post Corporation (IPC) shows that since its launch in 2022, Temu's global market share has surged from less than 1% to 24% last year, equal to that of the American giant Amazon. Gao Changchun, deputy secretary-general of the China Cross-Border E-commerce 50 Forum and a special researcher at the E-commerce Research Center of the China Internet Economy Institute, told Global Times reporters on the 21st that Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms led by Temu and Shein are expanding globally, and the essence of cross-border e-commerce has never been simply "buying and selling," but rather "the global reorganization of supply chains."

Market Share Split Evenly

The South China Morning Post reported that according to the "2025 Cross-Border E-commerce Consumer Survey Report" released by the International Post Corporation, which consists of postal agencies from 26 countries in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and North America, Amazon's market share has slightly declined in recent years, projected to be 25% in 2024, down from 26% in the previous two years. By 2025, the two platforms, Amazon and Temu, will almost split the market evenly, together occupying "half of the global cross-border e-commerce market."

The report released on the IPC official website states that the survey was conducted in September 2025, covering 37 countries worldwide, including Australia, Canada, China, and the United States, with approximately 31,000 high-frequency cross-border online shopping users participating in the survey, comprehensively presenting the expectations and consumption habits of global cross-border online consumers.

"The 2025 Cross-Border E-commerce Survey shows that consumer confidence in cross-border online shopping remains high." IPC CEO Holger Winklbauer stated that although customs policy changes from 2025 to 2026 are reshaping the global e-commerce supply chain landscape, Chinese e-commerce exports, especially the business of the Temu platform, have seen significant growth over the past three years.

"There is No Second Place in the World That Can Handle This"

The report shows that another Chinese retail giant, Shein, experienced explosive growth from 2020 to 2023, with its market share stabilizing at 9% in the past two years. Alibaba Group's AliExpress holds a share of 8%, slightly lower than the 9% in 2024.

The Singapore Lianhe Zaobao reported that in recent years, the "Four Little Dragons Going Abroad" in China's e-commerce sector—Temu, Shein, AliExpress, and TikTok Shop—have rapidly expanded in the global e-commerce market. However, alongside the growth in business scale, they are also facing increasing policy resistance and challenges in overseas markets. Regions such as Europe and the United States have successively decided to cancel the "small parcel tax exemption" policy, significantly impacting global small business operators and online shopping consumers. The direct-to-consumer model has become the key to Temu's breakthrough. Lianhe Zaobao stated that through Temu's "full custody model," merchants only need to provide goods, while the platform is responsible for sales, operations, logistics, and other tasks, significantly reducing costs and prices Zhang Jiong, Vice President of the Guangdong Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export and a special researcher at the E-commerce Research Center of the Internet Economy Institute, told the Global Times that Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms represented by Temu have unified the overseas market price system by mastering pricing power, effectively reducing internal disorderly competition. At the same time, the platform relies on big data analysis and professional teams to accurately predict potential hot-selling products and quickly list them, which is supported by China's strong supply chain system. Models such as small orders and quick responses, as well as flexible supply chains, play a key role in this process, achieving a sensitive response and efficient satisfaction of market demand.

“‘Small orders and quick responses’ are not just theories; they are based on the hardcore strength of hundreds of thousands of skilled positions in China's Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta,” Gao Changchun told the Global Times. “You won't find a second place in the world that can handle this kind of flexible supply chain.” He believes that the core reason for the rise of Chinese overseas platforms is the reconstruction of the global retail order through digital means.

China Ignites the "Third Stage Rocket"

The Wall Street Journal described the consumer group on Temu as "bargain hunters." Some analysts believe that Temu's average transaction value is significantly lower than that of Amazon, indicating a clear gap in transaction volume between the two.

Zhang Jiong believes that low prices and thousands of categories are Temu's core competitiveness. Foreign mainstream e-commerce platforms represented by Amazon mainly focus on mid-to-high-end products, while China's affordable products fill the demand gap for high-cost-performance goods in Western countries and other developed and developing nations.

Gao Changchun believes that although many people question the low average transaction value, in the context of the global economic cycle, whoever can first enter the shopping cart of ordinary people will secure a ticket for the second half. “We have surveyed over 70 countries and understand the differences in different markets; ‘high frequency beats low frequency’ is a universal rule.” Gao Changchun optimistically stated that having many orders with low prices is fine; this is about building infrastructure, and once brand awareness stabilizes, the average transaction value will naturally rise.

Xu Ping, President of Henan Zhongdamen International Logistics Group, told the Global Times that to establish a high-quality purchasing trust in the international e-commerce field, a cash-on-delivery credit system must be established, as well as a leap from "Made in China" to "Quality from China." Xu Ping stated, “Establishing these two credit systems requires long-term effort, but I believe it can be achieved in less than ten years.”

Recently, Radio France Internationale reported that by 2025, the French consumer market is being reshaped at an unprecedented speed by Chinese e-commerce giants. “China is igniting the ‘third stage rocket’: the service industry and digital economy, with platforms like TikTok and Temu rising, showing that China has shifted from being the ‘world's factory’ to a global competitor in services and technology.”

Gao Changchun also stated that trade barriers and tariff adjustments are forcing Chinese companies to transform. For Chinese merchants to succeed overseas, it is essential to have local warehousing, services, and compliant brands, rather than relying solely on mailing packages. He emphasized that Chinese e-commerce is currently at a critical stage of transitioning from “guerrilla warfare” to “regular army,” and crossing this step will lead to true globalization Risk Warning and Disclaimer

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