Before the CPI announcement, the market was cautious, U.S. stock index futures fell across the board, Japanese stock indices hit new highs, bonds and currencies were both hit hard, gold and silver fluctuated at high levels, and the situation in Iran boosted oil prices

Investors are turning their attention to regions outside the United States, with market volatility concentrated in Japan, driven by news that Kishi Sawa may hold elections at the end of January, leading to a significant rise in Japanese stock indices to new highs, while bonds and currencies are under pressure.

On January 13, U.S. stock index futures fell collectively, European stock indices opened mixed, and most Asian stock indices rose. U.S. Treasuries are under pressure, and the dollar is basically flat. Gold and silver are fluctuating at high levels, while basic metals such as copper, aluminum, and tin are rising, crude oil is up, and cryptocurrencies are gaining.

Market focus is shifting to U.S. inflation data and upcoming corporate earnings reports as fundamental indicators. The risk aversion sentiment triggered by the judicial investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has significantly eased, with the mainstream market view characterizing it as short-term "political noise." Meanwhile, investors are also awaiting the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on the legality of Trump's tariff policy.

Chris Larkin from E*Trade, a subsidiary of Morgan Stanley, stated:

"After shaking off the impact of last week's geopolitical surprises, the U.S. market will face attention on domestic political news. Unless other surprises occur, the market may shift its focus to corporate earnings and inflation data."

Core market trends are as follows:

Dow futures fell 0.08%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.07%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.16%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 index opened up 0.1%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.1%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.2%, and the German DAX30 index rose 0.1%.

The Nikkei 225 index closed up 3.10% at 53,549.16 points, a record high; the South Korean KOSPI closed up 1.47% at 4,692.63 points.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose 1 basis point to 4.19%; the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose 6 basis points to 2.150%.

The dollar index is basically flat; the dollar rose 0.5% against the yen to 158.94.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,590.17 per ounce.

Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $91,774.31; Ethereum rose 1.3% to $3,131.09.

U.S. stock index futures are generally lower, with the market focusing on the December CPI data to be released tonight.

As the statistical distortions caused by the government shutdown fade, economists expect the core CPI year-on-year growth rate to rebound to 2.7%. Due to a rebound in housing inflation and potential tariff cost transmission, the inflation rate remains stubbornly above the 2% target, leading to nearly zero expectations for a rate cut in January.

Meanwhile, according to Michael Casper and Wendy Song from Bloomberg Industry Research, U.S. fourth-quarter earnings reports will be officially released later this week, and are expected to show strong performance.

"High City Trading" is making a comeback in the Japanese financial market. The Nikkei 225 index surged over 3% on Tuesday, reaching a historic high. Meanwhile, Japanese government bonds fell across the board, with the 10-year government bond yield climbing to its highest level since February 1999, and the 20-year government bond yield hitting a record high. In the foreign exchange market, the yen fell to 158.98 against the US dollar, marking its lowest level since July 2024.

On the news front, according to CCTV News, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida conveyed to Liberal Democratic Party officials his intention to dissolve the House of Representatives on the 23rd and hold early elections.

Analysts pointed out that if Fumio Kishida gains a stronger mandate in the early elections, it will further consolidate his expansionary fiscal stance and preference for loose monetary policy. While this prospect has boosted the stock market, it has also raised concerns about the sustainability of Japan's debt, intensifying the selling pressure on bonds and the yen.

MLIV strategists stated:

Asian stock markets continued their recent strong momentum, with investor concerns over the tensions between Powell and the Justice Department providing additional support for the stock market. For investors seeking artificial intelligence investment opportunities, the Asian market offers a wealth of choices, with companies in China, South Korea, and Japan at the forefront of development in this field.

Gold and silver are experiencing high-level fluctuations. Overnight, driven by news of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell facing a judicial investigation, market risk aversion surged, pushing gold and silver prices significantly higher and reaching historical peaks. As market analysis gradually leans towards characterizing this event as "political noise," some safe-haven buying has subsided, leading to a consolidation in gold and silver.

On the news front, according to a notice released by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on January 12, in response to normal reviews of market volatility and to ensure adequate collateral coverage, the margin setting for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts will change from a fixed amount to a percentage of the contract's nominal value. The relevant rates will take effect after the close on January 13.

For traders, this mechanism shift means that risk exposure will directly fluctuate with the market. High prices or periods of high volatility may trigger frequent margin calls, making capital occupation unstable, and the pressure on high-leverage operators will be particularly significant. In the short term, this may exacerbate market liquidity tensions, forcing some traders to quickly adjust positions or close out, thereby amplifying volatility effects

Aluminum prices once approached their highest level since early 2022, while tin prices rose for the third consecutive trading day, with a cumulative increase of nearly 20% year-to-date. Base metals are off to a strong start in 2026, continuing the upward momentum from last year.

This round of market activity is primarily driven by two fundamental expectations: on one hand, the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts will support global industrial demand, while the current supply side struggles to quickly match potential growth; on the other hand, the rapid development of artificial intelligence has significantly increased the structural demand for key metals required for data centers, grid upgrades, and electronic products, especially copper, further providing long-term support for metal prices.

Affected by the situation in Iran, crude oil prices have risen. Brent crude oil increased by over 0.6% to $64.26 per barrel, reaching the highest level since November.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk.