Next week's heavy schedule: US inflation, China's foreign trade data, the official start of earnings season, and the Supreme Court's tariff ruling will be announced

2026 "Chronicle of Insights" corporate customization ⏳ is now in the final collection stage, limited spots available, scan the QR code for details

Overview of Major Financial Events from January 12 to January 18, all times in Beijing:

Next week, the global capital markets will enter a "super week," with the dual test of macro data and micro performance significantly intensifying market speculation. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the following three core logical lines:

First is the game of inflation fog and policy expectations. The U.S. December CPI, to be released next Tuesday, is expected to show a significant rebound, with institutions generally believing this is a "technical distortion" caused by the government shutdown. Meanwhile, the U.S. Supreme Court has postponed its ruling on the Trump tariff case, with the next ruling scheduled for January 14. China will also release its latest import and export data.

Second is the "critical leap" in performance verification. The earnings reports from major Wall Street banks will reveal the health of the financial system under a high-interest-rate environment, while TSMC's earnings report on Thursday will serve as a "barometer" for the global AI industry chain. Amidst the fluctuations of giants like NVIDIA, TSMC's guidance on advanced processes will determine whether tech stocks have new upward momentum.

Finally, there is geopolitical and industrial dynamics. The U.S. government funding bill is entering a critical period of Senate review, and the risk of a shutdown not only affects sentiment but may also materially drag down the economy. Coupled with the G7 rare earth issues, the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, and the convening of industrial conferences on nuclear fusion and AIGC in China, geopolitical competition and industrial catalysis coexist.

Economic Indicators

• China's December Import and Export Data

On January 14, Wednesday, China will release its December import and export data. CICC believes that the fluctuations in year-on-year export growth over the past few months can largely be attributed to base disturbances, and the base in December is higher than in November, which may lead to a decline in year-on-year export growth in December compared to November. December exports are expected to grow by 3.0% year-on-year, down from 5.9% in November; imports are expected to decline by 2.9% year-on-year, down from 1.9% in November.

• U.S. December CPI, November PPI, and Retail Data

On January 13, Tuesday, the U.S. will release its December CPI data, and institutions generally expect a significant rebound in core CPI month-on-month. Morgan Stanley predicts a 0.36% increase, while Bloomberg Economics predicts a 0.38% increase, both significantly higher than the average of 0.08% in October and NovemberAnalysis suggests that this rebound is mainly due to statistical distortions during the U.S. government shutdown, rather than a real increase in inflationary pressures. The market is likely to view it as a one-time technical factor and choose to "discount" it.

Following the CPI, two key U.S. economic data points will also be released: the PPI for October and November, and retail sales for November.

The market expects that the core PPI month-on-month growth rate for these two months may remain at a relatively moderate level. The main focus will be on whether the PPI data, as a key indicator of upstream inflationary pressures, will confirm whether cost-side price pressures continue to ease, and it will provide important calculation basis for the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index to be released at the end of the month. Additionally, Bloomberg expects that after the October reading remained flat, overall retail sales in November will rebound by 0.7% month-on-month, mainly due to a moderate recovery in auto sales from the sharp decline caused by the expiration of electric vehicle tax credits, as well as continued strong online transactions during "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday."

• The Federal Reserve releases the "Beige Book" on economic conditions

On Wednesday, January 14, the Federal Reserve will release the latest Beige Book survey on regional economic conditions.

The Beige Book from last November indicated that the government shutdown and the application of AI led to a weak job market, while rising tariffs and healthcare costs pushed up corporate spending, potentially exacerbating inflation concerns. The K-shaped consumer differentiation has intensified, with high-income consumers maintaining resilient spending, while middle- and low-income households are "tightening their belts."

Earnings Reports

• Taiwan Semiconductor

On Thursday, January 15, before the U.S. stock market opens, Taiwan Semiconductor will release its earnings report for the fourth quarter of 2025. The market generally expects the company's revenue for the quarter to be approximately NT$1.011 trillion, with earnings per share reaching NT$2.72. The main focus will be on whether the company can deliver on its growth narrative as a core foundry for AI chips, especially with strong demand for advanced processes from clients like NVIDIA. Several investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Barclays, have raised the company's target price and maintained an "overweight" rating.

• JP Morgan kicks off the quarterly earnings season for major U.S. banks

JP Morgan kicks off the quarterly earnings season for major U.S. banks, with balance sheets becoming the focus after recent interest rate cuts. In the week of January 12, Bank of America, BNY Mellon, BlackRock, Citigroup, Delta Air Lines, Goldman Sachs, HCL Technologies, Infosys, JP Morgan, M&T Bank, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial Services Group, Qatar National Bank, State Street, Taiwan Semiconductor, Tata Consultancy Services, and Wells Fargo will release their earnings reports.

• Zhaoyi Innovation's Hong Kong IPO, expected to start trading on January 13

Zhaoyi Innovation has applied for a Hong Kong IPO, seeking to issue 28.9 million shares, with the upper end of the price guidance at HK$162 per share. The stock is expected to be priced on January 9 and will start trading on January 13.

• OmniVision's Hong Kong IPO, expected to be priced on January 8 and start trading on January 12

OmniVision (OmniVision Technologies) has applied for a Hong Kong IPO, seeking to issue 45.8 million shares, with the upper end of the price guidance at HK$104.80 per shareIt is expected that the stock will be priced on January 8 and will start trading on January 12.

Financial Events

• The U.S. Supreme Court delays ruling on the Trump tariff case, with the next ruling scheduled for January 14

According to CCTV News, on January 9 local time, the U.S. Supreme Court stated that it would not make a ruling on the Trump administration's tariff case that day. After taking office in 2025, the Trump administration invoked the U.S. International Emergency Economic Powers Act to implement a series of tariff measures through executive orders without congressional approval. The U.S. Supreme Court had previously announced that it would rule on the legality of the tariff policy on January 9.

The U.S. Supreme Court completed its work of disclosing opinions on Friday but did not announce the ruling results on the Trump tariffs. There had been speculation that the ruling might be announced on Friday, but no decision will be made at this time, and it remains unclear when the final ruling will be released. The U.S. Supreme Court stated that the next ruling announcement will be on Wednesday, January 14.

• Risk of another government shutdown at the end of the month rises, related funding bills to be submitted to the Senate for review next week

U.S. government funds are about to run out again, increasing the risk of another shutdown at the end of the month. To avoid a government shutdown after January 30, the U.S. Congress is accelerating the advancement of funding legislation. According to CCTV News, the House of Representatives has passed three funding bills, which will enter the Senate review stage next week. This stage has become the focus of market attention, as its progress will directly determine the level of shutdown risk at the end of the month. If the Senate can pass it quickly, it will effectively stabilize market sentiment.

Specifically, the three funding bills that have been passed are referred to as a "minibus" spending package, which will provide funding for the Department of Energy, the Department of Commerce, the Department of Justice, as well as water projects, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and federal research projects, covering until the end of the current fiscal year. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the funding package will be reviewed as early as next weekMichael Thompson, Managing Director of Legislative and Regulatory Affairs at Charles Schwab, stated: “Time is very tight, and the possibility of a shutdown cannot be ruled out, but negotiations in Congress to avoid a shutdown seem to be making progress.”

• The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China from the 13th to the 17th, and the German Chancellor will visit India.

According to Global Times citing foreign media reports, the Canadian Prime Minister's Office announced on the 7th local time that Prime Minister Carney will visit China from the 13th to the 17th. This visit marks the first time a Canadian Prime Minister has visited China since December 2017. The Canadian Prime Minister's Office stated that Carney will discuss topics such as trade, energy, agriculture, and international security with the Chinese side during his visit.

In addition, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is visiting India, continuing until January 13. He plans to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and business leaders.

• Trump: Venezuelan opposition leader Machado may visit the U.S. next week.

According to Global Times, Trump revealed that Venezuelan opposition leader Machado may visit the U.S. next week, and he is expected to meet with her. “As far as I know, she will be visiting next week on a date to be determined, and I look forward to meeting her,” Trump said during an interview with Fox News broadcast on the evening of the 8th, “and I have also heard that she is willing to do so.”

• Before the interest rate meeting at the end of the month, several Federal Reserve officials are speaking out intensively.

Federal Reserve officials are set to speak intensively next week. FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams, 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker, 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, among others, will deliver speeches.

• The G7 Finance Ministers' meeting will discuss rare earth issues.

On January 12, G7 Finance Ministers will meet in Washington to discuss rare earth issues.

• The 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference will be held from January 16 to 17.

The 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference will be held in Hefei, Anhui from January 16 to 17. It is co-hosted by the Anhui Fusion Industry Association, Fusion New Energy (Anhui) Co., Ltd., Hefei Institute of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei Comprehensive National Science Center Energy Research Institute, and Keda Silicon Valley Service Platform (Anhui) Co., Ltd., making it one of the highest specification and most influential technology and industry events in the field of nuclear fusion energy in 2026.

From an industrial cycle perspective, controllable nuclear fusion is expected to gradually enter a capital expenditure expansion cycle from 2025 to 2028, with the next 3-5 years being a peak period for bidding on nuclear fusion projects, with major domestic nuclear fusion projects expected to reach an investment of 146.5 billion yuan.

• The 5th AIGC China Developer Conference and the 2nd China eVTOL Innovation Development Conference will be held, and the Detroit Auto Show will open.The 5th AIGC China Developer Conference will be held in Beijing on January 17. The 2nd China eVTOL Innovation Development Conference will take place in Shanghai from January 15 to 16. The Detroit Auto Show will open and run until January 25.

• China's first fundamental law in the nuclear energy sector, the Atomic Energy Law, will officially take effect on January 15

China's nuclear energy sector welcomes its first fundamental and comprehensive law. On September 12, the Atomic Energy Law of the People's Republic of China (hereinafter referred to as the Atomic Energy Law) was passed and announced by the 17th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China, and it will take effect on January 15, 2026.

• Guangzhou Futures Exchange: The price limit for platinum and palladium futures contracts will be adjusted to 16%

Guangzhou Futures Exchange: Starting from the settlement on January 13, 2026, the price limit for platinum and palladium futures contracts will be adjusted to 16%, and the trading margin standard will be adjusted to 18%. If the above price limit and trading margin standards differ from the currently implemented standards, the higher of the two will apply.

• EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report to be released on January 13

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its next Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report on January 13. Previously, the U.S. Department of Energy's STEO report maintained the WTI crude oil price forecast for 2025 at slightly below $69 and the forecast for 2026 at around $55.

• The 5th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Commission for Discipline Inspection will be held from January 12 to 14

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China recently held a meeting, agreeing to hold the 5th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Commission for Discipline Inspection from January 12 to 14 next year.

• The sixth batch of national high-value medical consumables procurement has started, with related bidding on January 13

The new batch of national organization for high-value medical consumables procurement has officially started, focusing on drug-coated balloon and urological interventional medical consumables, with bidding scheduled for January 13