Three Key Characteristics of Fund Winners in 2025

In 2025, China's active equity fund market underwent a true "capability repricing," with over 90% of products achieving positive returns, a median return close to 30%, and top products even exceeding 200%. However, differentiation is more important than the returns themselves—this year was not about "everyone making money," but rather "who made structural profits at the right time and with the right methods."

According to the latest research report from Shenwan Hongyuan, three core changes emerged in 2025 from the perspective of fund evaluation: track selection re-dominated the annual rankings, the pace of portfolio adjustment was more important than long-term style, and high turnover, strong active funds regained an advantage. Behind these changes is the typical "N-shaped market structure" of the A-share market: at the beginning of the year, technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and Hong Kong stock themes all exploded, while external disturbances intensified in the second quarter, leading to rapid risk release. In the second half of the year, the market strengthened again under the impetus of policy expectations and medium- to long-term funds.

There were significant differences in returns at the industry level, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and electronics leading the annual gains. Non-ferrous metals topped the list with a 94.73% increase, while the telecommunications sector outperformed for the third consecutive year with an 84.75% increase. In contrast, food and beverage fell by 9.69%, resulting in a staggering 104.43% gap between the best and worst-performing sectors. This directly led to one conclusion: in 2025, whether a fund "heavily invested in the right tracks" almost determined its annual ranking range.

For investors, 2025 validated the value of active management but also highlighted the importance of timing in track selection. Among the products that performed well in the first half of the year, 31% fell into the bottom 20% in the second half, indicating that investors need to pay attention to fund managers' flexibility in adjusting portfolios rather than simply using annual rankings to "deify" or "condemn" a fund.

Evaluation Logic Reconstruction: From Track Dividend to Capability Differentiation

2025 marked a fundamental shift in fund evaluation logic. If 2022 to 2024 was the "trust repair period" for active equity funds, then 2025 was truly a year of capability repricing.

The Wind All A Index rose 27.65% for the year, while the CSI 300 increased by 17.66%. Among the 31 first-level industries of Shenwan, 29 achieved positive returns, but the market was not a one-sided style that crushed everything; it provided enough track choices. The overall profit effect of active equity funds significantly rebounded, with 96.85% of products achieving positive returns and a median return rate of 29.81%.

The report pointed out that what truly widened the gap was track beta. From the statistical results, high turnover funds had significantly higher average returns than low turnover funds throughout the year. Funds that ranked high in the first half of the year showed a noticeable decline in the second half; the "champion curse" still exists, but it is no longer a simple mean reversion, rather a result of track misalignment. This means that 2025 is not suitable for evaluating "long-term capability" based on a single year's returns, but is very suitable for judging fund managers' trading and adaptability skills.

At the fund company level, capability differentiation began to emerge. Among companies with active equity assets exceeding 10 billion yuan, Yongying Fund, AVIC Fund, Caitong Fund, and Huashang Fund performed outstandingly, with arithmetic average performance exceeding 50%. Yongying Fund achieved an average performance of 56.76%, with its Yongying Technology Smart Selection yielding as high as 233.29%. Few companies maintained strong performance across all four quarters of the year, with relatively balanced performances including Huashang Fund and Baoying Fund Some small and medium-sized companies have shown strong explosive power in a single track, while platform companies, despite having a complete product line, do not have outstanding advantages in individual products.

Market Structure Determines Rankings: Industry Earnings Disparities Reach New Highs

The structural characteristics of the A-share market in 2025 are very typical, forming the underlying background that determines fund performance. At the beginning of the year, technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and Hong Kong stock themes all exploded, while external disturbances intensified in the second quarter, leading to a rapid release of risks. In the second half of the year, the market strengthened again under the influence of policy expectations and medium to long-term capital.

The earnings disparities between industries and themes are significant:

In terms of style, the large-cap growth index rose 37.88% for the year, while the ChiNext index saw an increase of 69.36%, becoming the best-performing broad-based index.

The electronic and power equipment industries, heavily weighted by active equity funds, rose 47.88% and 41.83% respectively for the year, contributing significantly to fund returns. However, banks and non-bank financials, which performed well in 2024, fell into relative disadvantage in 2025, while non-ferrous metals, which had lagged for the past three years, became the highest-yielding industry due to the strong performance of precious metals.

This structural characteristic is directly reflected in the common traits of high-performing funds. Analyzing the top-performing funds in 2025 reveals that most belong to technology-themed funds, which obtained substantial excess returns through industry allocation.

In terms of contribution to returns, the contributions from telecommunications and electronics are significantly higher than those from other fields, becoming important sources of returns for top-performing products. For example, Yongying Technology Smart Selection achieved a return of 25.23% through industry allocation, with stock selection contributing 180.56%; AVIC Opportunity Navigator's industry allocation contributed 23.84%, with stock selection contributing 150.29%.

Key Tracks and Timing: The Two Dimensions of Victory

The report points out that from a results-oriented perspective, the key to the success of outstanding active equity funds in 2025 lies in two dimensions: whether they grasp the key tracks and whether their timing of adjustments is precise.

Five major thematic opportunities emerged in succession. Precious metals were a stable opportunity throughout the year, with the Wind Precious Metals Index rising over 111% for the year. Fund managers such as Ye Yong, Li Xiaohua, Wu Guoqing, and Liu Wenzhe effectively seized this opportunity, with Li Xiaohua from Huafu Yongxin maintaining a 100% allocation to precious metals, achieving an annual return of 89.79%. This is a victory of "macro understanding plus portfolio execution capability," suitable for assessing fund managers' ability to adhere to long-term logic

Innovative drugs completed a typical "valuation repair plus trading congestion" process in the first three quarters, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index rising 118.52%. Fund managers such as Zheng Ning, Sang Xiangyu, Liang Furui, and Jin Xiaofei seized this wave of market, with the Bank of China Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical achieving a return of 126.55% in the first three quarters. However, the real difference is not whether to buy or not, but "when to reduce." Zheng Ning and Jin Xiaofei, who chose to moderately reduce their positions in innovative drugs in the third quarter, performed better over the year, while those who remained purely "long" saw their annual rankings decline.

New consumption and Hong Kong Stock Connect consumption are typical dividends of the first half of the year. New consumption represented by Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold rose 198% and 322% respectively in the first half, but turned downward in the second half. Fund managers such as Fu Juan, Song Jialing, and Wu Yuanyi grasped the opportunities in the first half, with Wu Yuanyi significantly reducing holdings in the third quarter, achieving an annual return of 60.22%. This indicates that track funds do not equal good funds; they must be evaluated in conjunction with "stage win rates."

AI computing power is not a year-round trend but concentrated in the third quarter, with the CSI Computing Power Index rising 82.20% in that quarter. Fund managers such as Ren Jie, Wang Haoyu, Han Hao, and Jiang Shan quickly increased their positions during this period, with Yongying Technology Smart Selection achieving a return of 99.74% in the third quarter. New energy made a strong comeback from September to mid-November, with the CSI New Energy Index showing a range increase of 33.65%. Fund managers such as Huang Qianyi, Yao Zhipeng, and Zheng Chengran benefited significantly, with Taixin Modern Service Industry achieving a return of 59.25% in this period.

The importance of timing is particularly prominent in 2025. The explanatory power of long-term style labels is significantly weaker than that of adjustment timing. High turnover funds had significantly higher average returns than low turnover funds throughout the year, and funds that ranked high in the first half saw a noticeable decline in the second half. Funds that can switch between multiple tracks and control drawdowns are more worthy of entering the core pool. The high returns of this year must be understood in conjunction with timing; otherwise, they cannot be replicated.

Market Recovery Signals: New Issuance Scale and Investor Preferences

The recovery of market confidence in 2025 is reflected in the warming of the new issuance market. A total of 334 active equity funds were newly issued, with a total scale of 161.898 billion yuan, showing a significant recovery compared to 2024, ending the continuous decline in new issuance scale since 2022. Twelve new products had an initial scale exceeding 2 billion yuan, with China Merchants Balanced Preferred leading with an initial scale of 4.955 billion yuan

From the perspective of custodians, China Merchants Bank has an advantage in the number of products and the scale of initial offerings, with 52 products totaling 29.091 billion yuan. Among fund companies, E Fund has the largest new issuance scale, reaching 12.001 billion yuan. As of the third quarter, the top net subscription scales include Yongying Advanced Manufacturing Smart Selection and China Europe Digital Economy, with net subscription amounts exceeding 9 billion yuan.

Emerging fund managers are making their mark. In 2025, a group of outstanding emerging fund managers has emerged, including Jun Lin and Ren Jie, who focus on popular sectors, as well as Ke Zheng and Yu Yi, who maintain a balanced approach, along with quantitative style managers Kong Xianzheng and Liu Weiming. Among the mid-generation fund managers and veterans, Liu Yuanhai, Zou Lihu, and Li Yan have maintained good performance over the past two years; mid-generation fund managers such as Guo Weiling, Liu Jianwei, and Hu Zhongyuan have also remained at the forefront of similar products in 2025.

Overall, 2025 is a year very "suitable for fund evaluation," as the market provides enough sector choices, and there is no single dominant style. The entire process of fund managers' "judgment-execution-correction" has been fully exposed.

Shenwan Hongyuan stated that for investors, one should not simply use the 2025 rankings to "deify" or "ban" a fund. High-yield products are more suitable as samples for observing capabilities rather than mindless long-term allocations. Funds that can switch between multiple sectors and control drawdowns are more worthy of entering the core pool. Looking ahead to 2026, it is recommended to seek offensive directions while maintaining defensive discipline, enhancing the portfolio's risk resistance through diversified layouts across multiple sectors, and then finding offensive directions through moderate key allocations at different stages to avoid the drawdown risks brought by concentrated right-side allocations