In 2026, which major news is expected to ignite market sentiment? Understand the "AI catalyst" of major American companies in one article

Against the backdrop of continued increases in infrastructure investment, Wall Street's current focus has shifted from a simple "arms race" to "commercialization landing."

According to information from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Bank of America stated in a report on January 5 that 2026 will be another key year for AI announcements to shake the market. The importance of chip technology, cutting-edge models, user data, and distribution channels is intensifying. In the context of ongoing infrastructure investment growth, AI capabilities remain the core asset and valuation driver for major internet stocks.

Bank of America summarized potential blockbuster news that could change the competitive landscape and monetization trajectory in 2026, becoming key catalysts for investor sentiment.

Benchmark Scenario: Seven Potential Blockbuster News That May Reshape the Competitive Landscape

Bank of America believes that the following events are likely to occur in 2026 and are directly related to the moats and cash flows of the giants:

1. Amazon Signs "Agentic Commerce" Agreement with OpenAI

The report points out that, given Amazon's first potential investment in OpenAI and Google's significant progress in Gemini and intelligent agent platforms, the likelihood of Amazon reaching an intelligent agent commerce deal with OpenAI is increasing.

Any agreement would need to be carefully designed to protect Amazon's Prime membership system and may include revenue sharing from advertising between Amazon and OpenAI.

Analysts believe that a well-structured agreement that protects the advertising business at attractive rates could help alleviate pressure on Amazon's retail business while moderately increasing competitive concerns for Google.

2. Google and Apple Sign AI Mobile Cooperation Agreement

Gemini 3.0 has become the leading cutting-edge model, while Android's AI capabilities have surpassed Apple's iOS.

After the antitrust ruling in August favored Google, media reports indicated that Apple is close to reaching an agreement with Google to license Gemini to transform Siri. This mobile partnership could accelerate Apple's development of AI capabilities within its ecosystem while allowing Google to expand Gemini's consumer reach.

Analysts state that while somewhat expected, the new AI agreement may enhance investor confidence in the durability of Google's search distribution and monetization advantages, driving valuation multiples expansion.

3. Meta Launches AI Video Creation Tools in Major Applications

According to market consensus, Meta is expected to exceed $100 billion in capital expenditures in 2026. This level of spending indicates that investments in internal AI capabilities and capacity will significantly exceed those of peers, who still need to increase capacity for their large cloud businesses.

The report suggests that some of Meta's AI capabilities may be specifically used for user AI tools, such as AI video generation tools.

Given management's positive assessment of the usage of Vibes in Meta AI applications and the importance of limiting the attractiveness of competing tools like Sora, analysts expect Facebook and Instagram may add AI video generation tags in 2026. By distributing compelling new AI video generation tools, investors may anticipate an increase in Meta's usage and monetization capabilities 4. Uber Signs L4 Autonomous Driving Commitment with Major Asian OEMs

Uber's CEO recently visited Asia with the intention of expanding the deployment of autonomous vehicles to "more than 10 markets."

Reports suggest that Uber may announce partnerships with autonomous driving software providers like NVIDIA or major new car manufacturers in 2026, which would include vehicle commitments on the Uber platform.

Analysts point out that while new car manufacturer agreements that include vehicle commitments (likely within a 2028 timeframe) are unlikely to change recent competitive concerns in the U.S., they are positive for long-term L4 competition with Waymo and Tesla, and may encourage other car manufacturers to accelerate L4 development.

5. Booking Launches Chat-Based Booking Feature

While Booking has collaborated with Google on smart agent booking features, the company has been investing in its own AI capabilities (part of a $170 million investment plan for 2025) and has indicated that it may announce new AI capabilities in 2026.

Given the need to match competitor products, analysts believe it is possible for Booking to directly launch a new smart agent booking feature on its platform in 2026. If Booking's chat-based booking feature is comparable to competitors' smart agent AI products, the launch may alleviate concerns about direct traffic loss.

6. DoorDash Expands Delivery Partnership with Autonomous Driving Partners

In Q4 2025, DoorDash announced a new partnership with Waymo to launch autonomous delivery services in the Phoenix metropolitan area.

The collaboration will initially start with deliveries from DashMart but may expand to other merchants. With the expectation of launching autonomous vehicles in multiple new cities in 2026 and 2027, along with DoorDash increasing capital expenditures, the report suggests a high likelihood of establishing more autonomous delivery partnerships in new metropolitan areas in 2026.

Analysts state that while they do not expect announcements of autonomous delivery partnerships to benefit DoorDash's finances, the new agreements may help the market view the long-term returns on automated delivery capital expenditures more favorably.

7. AI Unicorn IPO Sets the Tone for Sector Valuation

Various media reports, including Barron's and the Financial Times, have listed companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI as potential IPO candidates for 2026.

Financial disclosures regarding revenue backlog, revenue growth, profit margins, and profitability timelines could significantly impact publicly traded hyperscale cloud service providers that are both partners and competitors. Additionally, public market valuations are crucial for the AI investment valuations of AWS, Google Cloud, and Meta.

The report notes that media coverage indicates that private AI companies have revenue multiples far exceeding those of public companies, and successful new AI IPOs could serve as catalysts for well-positioned public companies like Google.

Advanced Game: If These "Low Probability" Events Occur, Valuation Logic Will Change

In addition to the aforementioned high-probability events, Bank of America also listed some "advanced" scenarios. If they occur, they will significantly change the market's perception of the company's technological strength:

Amazon acquires AI model technology to boost Nova

Amazon's Nova model currently lags behind ChatGPT and Gemini. By acquiring cutting-edge models or through "talent acquisition" (similar to Meta's operation with Scale AI), although financial returns may lag, it can quickly eliminate the significant market shadow of Amazon falling behind in LLM (large language model) technology.

Meta licenses closed-source LLM (Avocado) to enterprises

Meta is expected to release the Avocado model in the first quarter of 2026. If this model is closed-source and performs strongly, licensing it to enterprises will create new revenue streams and help prove the rationale behind its massive AI capital expenditures to Wall Street.

Google sells TPU chips to enterprises

If Google expands the sales of TPUs from cloud hosting to direct sales to enterprises (for on-premises or hybrid deployments), it will blur the lines between hardware and software giants, enhance the perceived technical value of TPUs, and potentially drive an expansion in Google's valuation multiples.

Airbnb collaborates with OpenAI/Google

If Airbnb changes its strategy to leverage its unique property inventory and reaches an exclusive booking agency agreement with OpenAI or Google, it will bring incremental traffic and drive the stock price upward.

Extreme assumptions: Breaking the norm with strategic pivots and regulatory black swans

Finally, Bank of America proposed some seemingly highly unlikely (Big Stretch) assumptions that, if they occur, would trigger significant volatility:

Meta may authorize external cutting-edge models for product development

If Meta's self-developed models underperform expectations, it may turn to authorize external models to reduce costs through faster time-to-market. This would be a significant strategic shift, potentially leading to increased free cash flow due to reduced capital expenditures (Capex), but it may also raise concerns about its long-term technological capabilities.

Amazon authorizes the introduction of ChatGPT or Gemini

Despite significant competitive barriers, if Amazon introduces competitors' models to the Bedrock platform for the diversity of model choices for AWS customers, Wall Street will respond positively to the expansion of AWS model offerings.

The U.S. relaxes import rules for Chinese autonomous vehicles (AV)

Current regulations prohibit the import of electric vehicles containing Chinese software and hardware. However, considering the significant cost reductions in Chinese AVs, if the rules are relaxed, it will significantly lower fleet costs for Uber and Lyft, greatly improving unit economics