Vietnam's GDP in the fourth quarter grew by 8.46% year-on-year, with rapid growth in the manufacturing sector
Despite facing tariff pressures from the United States, the Vietnamese economy has demonstrated strong resilience, with its GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 significantly exceeding market expectations. The core drivers of growth stem from the rapid expansion of the manufacturing sector (quarterly growth exceeding 10%) and exports, confirming its position as a key beneficiary of the global supply chain shift. However, the rapid expansion of credit (annual growth of 17.9%) has raised liquidity risks, becoming a major concern for the future economy
Despite the impact of the tariff policies of the Trump administration, Vietnam's economic growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 still far exceeded market expectations, supported by strong momentum in manufacturing, investment, and trade, continuing its expansion trend.
According to data released by the General Statistics Office of Vietnam on Monday, the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 8.46% year-on-year during the period from October to December last year. This figure not only surpassed the predictions of all economists surveyed by Bloomberg but also exceeded the median estimate of 7.7%. The statistics office stated that this is the fastest fourth-quarter growth rate since 2011.
In this expansion, aggressive credit issuance, supportive government policies, the depreciation of the Vietnamese dong, and a surge in tourism all played key roles, helping Vietnam effectively cope with the pressure brought by the 20% tariffs imposed by the United States. Vietnam continues to maintain its position as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.
Despite the impressive performance in the fourth quarter, Vietnam's GDP growth rate for the entire year of 2025 is projected to be 8.02%, slightly below the government's annual target of 8.3% to 8.5%.
Manufacturing and Export-Driven Growth
During Trump's two terms, Vietnam has emerged as an important export powerhouse. As the U.S. imposed trade restrictions on Chinese suppliers, multinational companies have shifted to Vietnam to avoid tariffs, greatly boosting Vietnam's manufacturing and exports to the U.S. This trend has not reversed despite Trump's accusations that trade partners are taking advantage of the U.S.
According to Bloomberg, data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam shows that manufacturing grew by over 10% in the fourth quarter, becoming the core engine driving economic growth. Meanwhile, the export sector remained strong, with exports rising nearly 24% year-on-year last month. These figures indicate that Vietnam's advantageous position in the global supply chain restructuring remains solid.
Credit Expansion Accompanied by Liquidity Risks
However, while pursuing high growth, Vietnam also faces potential risks. The central bank of Vietnam stated last week that due to a credit growth of 17.9% last year, which exceeded the 14% growth rate of deposits, the banking sector is facing liquidity shortages.
To alleviate this pressure, regulators have implemented measures, including dollar swap transactions, to increase cash supply to lending institutions.
Rating agency Fitch Ratings warned last November that the lending pace of Vietnam's banking sector is exacerbating risks. Fitch Ratings emphasized that the country's loan growth rate has consistently outpaced overall economic growth for many years, and this imbalance is a concern for investors
