The "Christmas Rally" in the US stock market has completely failed
U.S. stocks opened flat on the first day of the new year, with the Nasdaq declining, and the market's anticipated "Christmas rally" essentially failing. According to data from Bespoke Investment Group, since 1953, the median change of the S&P 500 on the first trading day of the year has been a decline of 0.3%, with less than half of the days resulting in gains. Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen pointed out that the performance on the first day is a very poor indicator for predicting the year's overall performance; after reaching a historic high on the first day of 2022, the market entered a bear market, experiencing the worst year since 2008
On the first trading day of the New Year, U.S. stocks performed moderately, with the Nasdaq even experiencing a decline. The market's eagerly anticipated "Christmas rally" for U.S. stocks has essentially failed.
According to data from Bespoke Investment Group, since 1953, the median change in the S&P 500 index at the start of a new year has been a decline of 0.3%, with the number of increases being less than half, so this is not entirely unexpected.
Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen and others wrote: "Recently, the performance on the first trading day has been an extremely poor indicator for predicting the performance for the remainder of the year."
In fact, "the index hit a historic high on the first day of 2022, only to enter a bear market afterward, experiencing the worst year since 2008. Therefore, regardless of what happens today, we really shouldn't place too much importance on the performance of the first day."
