The market awaits the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, with U.S. stock index futures, the dollar, and U.S. Treasuries flat, while the onshore RMB breaks 7, and spot silver rebounds nearly 4%

As the year-end approaches, market trading is light, and major global stock markets have entered a narrow consolidation phase. Investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting minutes. The metal market shows a differentiated pattern, with gold, silver, platinum, copper, and nickel rising, while palladium hit its daily limit down during trading.

On December 30, U.S. stock index futures were basically flat, most European stock indices fell, and Asian stock indices showed mixed results. The U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds were basically flat, with the onshore renminbi breaking through the 7 mark. Metals were differentiated, with silver rebounding 4% to recover some ground, spot gold rising over 1%, London copper rising nearly 3%, and palladium hitting its daily limit down. Crude oil slightly corrected, and cryptocurrencies rose slightly.

The Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting minutes will be released at 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 31, and this meeting minutes will provide the market with key guidance on the interest rate path for 2026. At the interest rate meeting on December 10, the Federal Reserve decided to cut rates by 25 basis points, but internal opinions were divided: two policymakers advocated for keeping rates unchanged, while another supported a larger cut of 50 basis points.

According to the dot plot released in December, most policymakers expect only one 25 basis point rate cut in 2026, but there are significant differences in predictions among individual members, reflecting uncertainty about the economic outlook.

The core market trends are as follows:

Dow futures rose 0.01%, S&P 500 index futures rose 0.01%, Nasdaq futures fell 0.02%

The Euro Stoxx 50 index opened down 0.1%, Germany's DAX index fell 0.1%, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 0.1%, and France's CAC 40 index fell 0.2%.

The Nikkei 225 index closed down 0.4% at 50,339.48 points; Japan's Topix index closed down 0.5% at 3,408.97 points; South Korea's Seoul Composite Index closed down 0.2% at 4,214.17 points.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was basically flat at 4.11%.

The U.S. dollar index was basically flat; the onshore renminbi broke through the 7 mark for the first time since 2023.

Spot silver rose over 4% to $75.14 per ounce; spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,365.33 per ounce; base metals generally rose, with London copper rising nearly 3%, London nickel rising nearly 5%, London tin rising nearly 2%, and London zinc rising over 1%; WTI crude oil was basically flat at $58 per barrel.

Bitcoin rose 0.1% to $87,319.51, and Ethereum rose 0.3% to $2,943.17.

U.S. stock index futures were basically flat. Although the S&P 500 index's 17% increase this year lags behind most major global stock markets, there is a consensus on Wall Street that the U.S. stock market will continue its upward trend in 2026. Even in the face of multiple potential risks such as a slowdown in artificial intelligence development and sudden policy shocks, sell-side strategists still predict that the index is expected to achieve an average increase of about 9% next year.

Today is the last trading day of the year for the Japanese and South Korean stock markets. Since the beginning of this year, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index has increased by 75.6%, marking the largest gain since 1999. The Nikkei 225 index has stabilized above 50,000 points.

The onshore RMB against the US dollar has broken through the 7.0 mark, reaching its highest level since May 17, 2023. Previously, the offshore RMB had also surpassed this psychologically significant level on December 25. Market participants expect that with capital inflows and economic recovery expectations supporting it, the RMB still has room for appreciation.

Spot silver rebounded nearly 4% to $74.7 per ounce, after plummeting 9% in the previous trading day. Before this round of sell-off, silver prices had seen a historically strong rise due to heightened market speculation and concerns over structural supply shortages.

Spot gold rose nearly 1% to $4,368.68 per ounce, after falling over 4% in the previous trading day.

London copper rose nearly 3% at one point, and copper prices are expected to record the longest consecutive rise since 2017. This round of gains in December has been boosted by expectations of increased pressure on supply chains.

WTI crude oil remained basically flat at $58 per barrel. Traders continue to assess geopolitical risks and the fundamentals of supply and demand. The ongoing geopolitical situations in Venezuela, Russia, and Iran continue to pose potential disruptions to oil supply, while concerns about a structural oversupply of global crude oil have not yet dissipated.